We’re down to the final three weeks of the NFL regular season and there are still many playoff spots available and division titles up for grabs.
Perhaps the first game of Week 16 will give us another clinched playoff spot if the Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night. The Chargers could also officially earn a playoff spot with a win over the Broncos, but will need some help on Sunday.
Surprisingly, there could be three playoff teams from the AFC West, which not many expected heading into the season. No one doubted the Kansas City Chiefs would be a playoff team again—and they already wrapped up the AFC West—but there’s concern regarding the health of Patrick Mahomes, who injured his ankle last week against the Cleveland Browns.
With the Chiefs still battling for the No. 1 seed, they might roll the dice and play Mahomes on Saturday against the Houston Texans. Kansas City is in the midst of a brutal three-game stretch in 11 days. Perhaps we’ll see backup Carson Wentz against Houston’s rugged defense if the Chiefs decide to play it safe.
The Baltimore Ravens can gain ground in the AFC North by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Pittsburgh got the best of its divisional rival in the first meeting, but might enter Baltimore without George Pickens and T.J. Watt, two star players who are both dealing with injuries.
We’ll also keep close tabs on the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
THURSDAY
Denver Broncos (9–5) at Los Angeles Chargers (8–6)
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Spread: Chargers -2.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto vs. Chargers’ tackles. Bonitto is starting to gain attention for Defensive Player of the Year with the way he’s impacted games this season. Bonitto, who has 11.5 sacks this season, has returned an interception and a fumble recovery for touchdowns, including last week’s 50-yard return against the Indianapolis Colts. But now the third-year edge rusher has to deal with the Chargers’ dominant bookend tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. This might be the one strength on a thin Chargers’ offense. —Manzano
Key stat: The Broncos have the NFL’s top defense in points allowed per drive (1.51), and they face a hobbled Chargers offense that without J.K. Dobbins this year has scored a mere 17 points in each of its past three games. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Bo Nix has posted a pair of subpar stat lines, scoring a combined 25.7 fantasy points in his past two games. He remains a borderline QB1 this week though, facing a Chargers defense that’s allowing more than 17 points per game to quarterbacks since Week 8. Nix also beat the Lightning Bolts for 20.7 fantasy points when the two faced off in Week 6. —Fabiano
Best bet: Broncos +2.5. The Chargers’ biggest strengths in the first half of the season were running the ball and playing solid defense. Both of those strengths have diminished lately. Dobbins went down with an injury and teams are figuring out how to move the ball against the Los Angeles defense. Now, Justin Herbert & Co. will need to throw the ball against the Broncos’ secondary, which is the best in the NFL. I’ll take the points with Denver. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like Denver. Justin Herbert was beat up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago and I would guess Vance Joseph is going to press the line in a similar way and try to unleash the Broncos’ pass rush. In a game that has major playoff implications, we’ll see if the Chargers can get themselves off the mat in time. I’m calling a narrow Denver win highlighted by a few big Nix rushes. —Orr
SATURDAY
Houston Texans (9–5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13–1)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Chiefs -3 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rushers vs. Chiefs’ OL. If the Chiefs clear Patrick Mahomes to play despite an ankle injury, they’re taking a big risk because their offensive line has struggled most of the season and have the daunting challenge of containing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The duo has a combined 22.5 sacks, exactly half of Houston’s 45 sacks, second best in the league. Kansas City has had a rotation at left tackle with Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries and even stud guard Joe Thuney, who filled in admirably last week against the Browns. —Manzano
Key stat: Houston has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud this season, allowing 46 sacks, the fourth-most in football. While the Chiefs have registered a middling 32 sacks, they’ve been terrific with 11 sacks in three games since the return of Charles Omenihu to the defensive line. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Stroud has been one of the biggest fantasy duds of the season, failing to score more than 16 points in eight consecutive games. Next up is a bad matchup on paper against the Chiefs, whose defense has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Unless you’re in a super flex league, Stroud needs to be benched. —Fabiano
Best bet: Texans +3. I liked the Chiefs when they were underdogs before the Mahomes news, but with their starting quarterback now on track to play Saturday, the value has flipped to Houston as a field goal underdog. The Chiefs’ biggest strength is their third down offense, but now they have to face one of the best third down defenses in the NFL. Houston ranks third in opponent third down conversion percentage, second in opponent third down EPA, and first in opponent third down success rate. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took the Chiefs because, even with the possibility that Carson Wentz starts (Mahomes was a full participant in practice Tuesday), I like what I think Steve Spagnuolo can do to a shaky Stroud. This Chiefs’ defense is the biggest part of Kansas City’s narrow win streak because of its ability to clamp down and limit big scoring performances, not that the Texans have looked prime for one of those against a top-tier opponent in a while. —Orr
Pittsburgh Steelers (10–4) at Baltimore Ravens (9–5)
When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Ravens -6.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Steelers RB Najee Harris vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Pittsburgh needs a dominant performance from Harris, especially if Pickens is ruled out for the third consecutive game due to a hamstring injury. The Steelers don’t have the firepower to keep pace with the Ravens in a shootout, but they can slow down the game with Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris is searching for a bounce-back performance after a costly fumble in Philadelphia last week. Harris has 229 carries for 891 yards and five touchdowns this season. Smith, who has 126 total tackles, has helped Baltimore become the best run defense in the league, only allowing 80.7 rushing yards per game. —Manzano
Key stat: When the Ravens run the ball, it’ll be strength against strength. Pittsburgh is fifth in the NFL, allowing 4.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Ravens have rushed for a league-best 5.7 YPC behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Russell Wilson has posted mediocre totals lately, scoring 16 or fewer fantasy points in four of his past five games. I don’t see him getting better this week against the Ravens. Over the past four weeks, their defense has given up the fifth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks. With or without Pickens, Wilson is a sit ’em. —Fabiano
Best bet: Ravens -6. The Ravens had plenty of issues on defense in the first half of the season, but they’ve seemingly fixed that issue. They now rank fifth in opponent dropback success rate and second in opponent dropback success rate since Week 11. They now enter Week 16 leading the NFL in net yards per play at +1.6, which is +0.5 better than the next-best team. If they fire on all cylinders, they should steamroll the Steelers on Saturday.—MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took Baltimore but I would caution that Jackson was really thrown for a loop in Week 11, thanks in part to a Steelers defense that heavily utilized former Raven Patrick Queen as a defender on Baltimore’s best wideouts. This is a big moment for the possible MVP Jackson as he tries to shake the narrative of how he plays in the clutch deep in the season. —Orr
SUNDAY
Philadelphia Eagles (12–2) at Washington Commanders (9–5)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Eagles -3.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore. It took longer than expected, but the Commanders finally got Lattimore on the field and the results were impressive. Lattimore played 49 of 51 snaps in his Washington debut and wasn’t targeted once by Saints quarterbacks. The Saints know better than most teams it’s best to avoid their former shutdown cornerback. But Washington won’t be facing Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Jalen Hurts and Brown could pick apart a Commanders secondary that has struggled most of the season. Brown had eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week. —Manzano
Key stat: Only the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints have allowed more yards per carry than the Commanders this season. That could spell doom against the Eagles, who lead the NFL in rushing yardage and have the league’s top back in Saquon Barkley with 1,688 ground yards. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Brian Robinson Jr. finished with a so-so stat line last week, scoring 11.7 fantasy points in a win over the Saints. Much more was expected from him based on the plus matchup, however, and now he’ll be in a much tougher spot when he faces the Eagles. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing running backs over the past eight weeks, so beware of Robinson in this important NFC East contest. —Fabiano
Best bet: Eagles -3.5. Washington’s offense has regressed in the second half of the season. After being a top-five unit to start the year, they’re now just 13th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. That’s bad news for them ahead of a game against arguably the best team in the NFL. Philadelphia already cruised past Washington once this season and I see no reason why we won’t see a similar result Sunday. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: The Eagles bottled up Washington so well last time and showed us what happens when you don’t give Jayden Daniels any answers. DC Vic Fangio will continue to put a lid on this explosive Commanders offense and force Daniels to do what he doesn’t want to do—take the quick, unsexy throws. —Orr
Minnesota Vikings (12–2) at Seattle Seahawks (8–6)
When/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -3.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Seahawks LB Ernest Jones IV. Aaron Jones’s physical runs were enough Monday night against the Chicago Bears during an ugly game with few explosive plays. Sam Darnold’s struggles didn’t cost the Vikings because Jones averaged 4.8 yards per carry and recorded a team-high 86 rushing yards and one touchdown. But Darnold and Jones will need to provide a balanced attack against the Seahawks, who can get hot in a hurry. Ernest Jones, who has 71 total tackles this season, has helped improve Seattle’s run defense since being traded by the Titans in October. The Seahawks are allowing 127.5 rushing yards per game. —Manzano
Key stat: Whether it’s Sam Howell or Geno Smith under center, the Vikings are going to heat them up. Minnesota blitzes on 36.3% of snaps, the highest percentage in the NFL. The Vikings also rank fourth with 42 sacks and sit seventh with 91 quarterback hits. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: If Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a start ’em in my column this week, then how can Metcalf be a sit? Well, look at the numbers. He’s failed to score more than 10.6 PPR points in his past four games, and he’s seen six or fewer targets in three of those contests. What’s more, he’s failed to produce regardless of the strength of his weekly opponent. So, even with a plus matchup against the Vikings, I’d beware of DK this weekend. —Fabiano
Best bet: Vikings -3.5. Even with Geno Smith healthy, the Seattle offense has struggled lately, ranking 21st in EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offense is rounding into form. Early in the season, they were being carried by their defense. Now it’s the offense stepping up in a big way and Darnold continues to play at a high level. Minnesota has too many ways to beat a stumbling Seattle team on Sunday. I’ll lay the field goal with the Vikings. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I’ve lost some faith in the Seahawks, a team that looked overmatched by Green Bay even with their starting quarterback healthy. Minnesota is playing a cut above, and while I don’t doubt Mike Macdonald’s ability to frustrate Sam Darnold and box him in a bit, this Minnesota team is just too talented. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 16: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.
