With only four weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is only growing more muddled.
Of the 32 teams, 24 are either currently in a playoff spot or within one game of the final seed. While parity is the NFL’s favorite buzzword, it’s also the operative word this season.
This weekend, we get a tripleheader on Saturday, 11 games on Sunday and a Monday nighter with two teams trying to stop a spiral.
Of all the games, only the Raiders-Chargers tilt on Thursday was without any real playoff implications.
For the remaining 15 games, here’s the matchup to watch in each:
Minnesota Vikings (7–6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7–6)
Key matchup: Bengals’ playmakers vs. Vikings’ defense
Cincinnati doesn’t have Joe Burrow, but Jake Browning has stepped in and stepped up. Over the last two weeks, Browning is averaging more than 300 passing yards, with plenty of help from his weapons. On the year, the Bengals rank third in yards after the catch, only behind the Chiefs and Dolphins.
As for the Vikings, that’s been a problem for their defense. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most passing yardage after the catch (1,683), largely because it has the highest blitz rate in football, taking tacklers out of the picture.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7–6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7–6)
Key matchup: Colts’ blitz rate vs. Mitchell Trubisky
Indianapolis does a good job of bringing the opposing quarterback down with 42 sacks, ranking second-best in football. However, the Colts almost never blitz. They only bring extra rushers on 16.1% of snaps, lowest in the league.
This could be a problem for Trubisky, who consistently throws into coverage. When pressured, he’s also vulnerable for turnovers. This could be a bad combination on Saturday afternoon.
Denver Broncos (7–6) vs. Detroit Lions (9–4)
Key matchup: Lions’ rushing attack vs. Broncos’ run defense
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Detroit has one of the best rushing tandems in football with veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The result has been 4.7 yards per carry, tied for third-best in the NFL.
Conversely, the Broncos have struggled to shut down the run. Denver is dead last in the metric, permitting 5.1 yards per carry against.
Chicago Bears (5–8) vs. Cleveland Browns (8–5)
Key matchup: Browns’ pressure rate vs. Bears’ offensive line
Cleveland has won eight games largely because of its ability to shut down opposing offenses with a wicked pass rush and stifling coverage on the back end.
The Browns could win their ninth game with the same formula. Cleveland ranks third with a pressure rate of 26.8%, while the Bears permit pressure on 24.3% of dropbacks, the seventh-worst rate in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–7) vs. Green Bay Packers (6–7)
Key matchup: Packers’ third-down offense vs. Buccaneers’ defense
The Packers had been rolling with three straight wins before getting tripped up by Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday. The trick for bouncing back can be found on third down, where Green Bay’s offense ranks sixth at 43.4%.
In direct contrast, the Buccaneers have struggled to get off the field defensively, ranking tied for 26th on third down at a 42% conversion rate.
Houston Texans (7–6) vs. Tennessee Titans (5–8)
Key matchup: Texans’ ball control vs. Titans’ defense
Tennessee’s defense has been leaky in a litany of areas at times, specifically against the pass. But another problem has been forcing turnovers, as the Titans have only taken the ball away 11 times. Only the one-win Panthers have fewer.
Additionally, the Texans have been excellent at holding onto the ball. Houston has committed 11 turnovers, tied for fewest in the NFL.
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New York Jets (5–8) vs. Miami Dolphins (9–4)
Key matchup: Miami’s passing attack vs. Jets’ secondary
The Dolphins have shredded teams through the air this season, with Tua Tagovailoa leading the league in passing yardage through 13 games.
However, the Jets’ defense is a unique beast. New York is averaging five net yards gained per pass attempt, second-best in football. Conversely, the Dolphins’ offense is second in the metric at 7.9 NY/A.
Kansas City Chiefs (8–5) vs. New England Patriots (3–10)
Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Patriots’ front seven
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For the Patriots to beat the Chiefs, they’ll need to both pressure Mahomes and actually take him down. The latter is always the toughest part.
Kansas City has only allowed 18 sacks, fewest of anybody in football. The Patriots, meanwhile, check in 28th with 26 sacks.
New York Giants (5–8) vs. New Orleans Saints (6–7)
Key matchup: Tommy DeVito vs. Saints’ lack of pass rush
DeVito has won three of his four starts, seemingly playing better by the week. Despite starting 2–8, the Giants are somehow only a game out of the last NFC playoff spot.
For the Saints to win what has become an essential game, they’ll need to rattle DeVito. New York allows pressure on 27.8% of dropbacks, second-worst in the league. However, the Saints rank 24th in pressure rate at 19.6%. Can they get home enough?
Atlanta Falcons (6–7) vs. Carolina Panthers (1–12)
Key matchup: Atlanta’s red-zone defense vs. Panthers’ offense
The Falcons have been inconsistent all year, evidenced by their record. Yet Atlanta’s defense has consistently shown up in the red zone, ranking tied for second at 40.5%.
Not surprisingly, the Panthers’s offense has struggled inside the 20-yard line. Carolina checks in tied for 22nd at 50%, while making only 30 red-zone trips all year.
Washington Commanders (4–9) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6–7)
Key matchup: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp vs. Commanders’ secondary
If there’s ever a week where the Rams can get the offense rolling in a major way, this is it. Washington ranks dead last in passing yardage against per game at 266.0.
With their playoff hopes hanging in the balance, the Rams need Nacua and Kupp to lead the way. For Nacua specifically, who is leading all rookies with 1,113 receiving yards, that shouldn’t be a problem.
San Francisco 49ers (10–3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3–10)
Key matchup: Christian McCaffrey vs. Cardinals’ front seven
McCaffrey is leading the league with 1,177 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry, scoring 12 total touchdowns along the way. In Week 4, McCaffrey torched the Cardinals for 177 all-purpose yards and four scores.
On the year, Arizona is tied for 22nd in yards per carry against (4.4). If the Cardinals can’t contain McCaffrey, it’ll be a long day for the underdogs.
Dallas Cowboys (10–3) vs. Buffalo Bills (7–6)
Key matchup: Bills’ downfield passing vs. Cowboys’ secondary
Dallas has been dominant lately, winning its last five games including a 33–13 thumping of the Eagles. Against the Bills, the Cowboys must continue to limit air yards, as they rank fourth-best in the metric, giving up only 1,248 this season.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has the eighth-most air yardage (1,805) with Josh Allen liking to throw deep to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Whoever wins this battle likely wins the game.
Baltimore Ravens (10–3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–5)
Key matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Jaguars’ secondary
The Jaguars have been a sieve against the pass all season. Over their recent two-game skid, that’s been true against both Jake Browning and Joe Flacco, permitting an absurd 665 passing yards in those games.
All told, Jacksonville has allowed 265.2 passing yards per game, only better than the Commanders. However, the Ravens are a paltry 19th in passing yards per game at 215.4. Can Jackson do enough to exploit the Jaguars?
Philadelphia Eagles (10–3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6–7)
Key matchup: Eagles’ third-down offense vs. Seahawks’ defense
Philadelphia has been a wreck defensively on third down, sporting the league’s worst percentage against (48.1%). However, the Eagles are excellent offensively in that situation, sitting third (47.7%).
Seattle’s defense has been abominable on third down, checking in 30th (45.8%). If that doesn’t change, Philadelphia’s offense should get right after two ugly performances.
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