We’ve arrived at the doorstep of Week 11. How is everyone feeling?
The NFL cynic in me is dying off, as I’ve mentioned in a few of these introductions. The longer you tend to cover something, the more likely you are to lump things into categories that match cyclical trends. Over time, our brains become machines of predictive analytics instead of newly minted sponges ready to be surprised for the first time. Oh, this team will do this because that’s what they always do. Oh, nothing is going to matter because only three or four owners are actually trying to win.
Thanks to the Texans, Vikings, Cardinals and, really, the entirety of the NFC South, my most hardened perspectives about the league have changed. Maybe it has always been this way, but everyone (well, almost everyone) is trying, dammit. And on a week-to-week basis, there are probably more instances of good football (in a vacuum) than we’ve seen in the last few years. Some will complain that the defensive counter-evolution and the league’s naked attempts to officiate its way through a good group of defensive coaches to still provide offense make this a bad product.
I say it’s part of the process of loving professional football.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8–1)
Last week: Bye
Next week: at Kansas City
A great time for the Eagles to go on bye, when my fledgling fantasy football team that’s completely dependent on A.J. Brown faces a must-win opponent (it’s cool, we got bailed out by Justin Herbert). A date with the Chiefs on Monday Night Football comes next. What a treat before Thanksgiving.
2. San Francisco 49ers (6–3)
Last week: win at Jacksonville, 34–3
Next week: vs. Tampa Bay
This 49ers team with Trent Williams and with a deep rotational pass rush is about as good as it gets. Brock Purdy throwing a touchdown to George Kittle almost completely blinded by a collapsing pocket should give his doubters a rest for one week at least.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7–2)
Last week: Bye
Next week: vs. Philadelphia
Having both Super Bowl teams coming off a bye before facing off on Monday Night Football is one of the very few enjoyable quirks of this maddening 2023 schedule. It could easily be the Super Bowl matchup again for ’24, which I would personally love. Nick Sirianni is not getting enough credit for the way he has emotionally repositioned his team, just like Steve Spagnuolo, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are not getting enough credit for the way they are dragging this Chiefs roster through what would be a rebuilding blip in some other places.
Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports
4. Detroit Lions (7–2)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Chargers, 41–38
Next week: vs. Chicago
Inspired football on Sunday by the Lions, a team that again cracks our top four (much to the joy of Lions nation). Dan Campbell continues to coach with an unwavering belief in the product he’s putting on the field, which will inevitably suit Detroit when the going gets tough in the playoffs. This has been a master class in self-awareness, humility and not coaching scared.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7–3)
Last week: loss vs. Cleveland, 33–31
Next week: vs. Cincinnati
The Ravens are still out front of the AFC North, but illustrated the thin margin by which this division will ultimately be won. It’s impossible to completely shed a team of its tendency to break down at the end of a game. It happens to all 32 teams at various points during the season. Baltimore gambled that it wouldn’t see a handful of clutch throws from Deshaun Watson—a fair bet given the sample size of this season so far—and got caught by surprise.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5–4)
Last week: loss vs. Houston, 30–27
Next week: at Baltimore
I am not really punishing the Bengals, nor should you, because they had the game won. I understand folks who will disagree and count bounces and bad breaks as part of the whole operation. But during the regular season, I often feel like it’s about getting to a place where a victory is possible or likely late in a game. The more often that occurs, the more likely a team is to win. Cincinnati has really dropped games only with an unhealthy Burrow or when a good receiver makes a momentary error. They still create a lot of turnovers. They still don’t turn the ball over much. It’s a winning recipe.
7. Dallas Cowboys (6–3)
Last week: win vs. New York Giants, 49–17
Next week: at Carolina
As emphatic a victory as the Cowboys had on Sunday, they need to get up on bad opponents quicker. This game was scoreless until late in the first quarter. This may seem like an unfair criticism, but what happens when the Cowboys are playing a Dolphins team capable of putting up 21 points in that span of time? Dallas turned the ball over on downs, punted after three plays and finally scored when they got advantageous field position on its third drive. On a night when Tommy DeVito is on the opposite sideline and the head coach and defensive coordinator are warring, you need to be up big much sooner.
8. Miami Dolphins (5–3)
Last week: Bye
Next week: vs. Las Vegas
Plug alert: The Dolphins are on the cover of December’s issue of Sports Illustrated … but it’s not what you think! This is a story about how a team makes it to Sunday. Equipment managers, IT people, security guards. Everyone has their own unique story about their love of football, and what drives them to spend almost every waking hour devoted to a playoff berth. The Dolphins were on a bye, so I am allowed to occupy this space for a bit of crossover advertising, I’m told. On newsstands now!
9. Cleveland Browns (6–3)
Last week: win at Baltimore, 33–31
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh
I’m not quite there with a few people who I’ve seen describe this as a watershed moment for Watson. I think he made three really good throws on an injured body in the second half, which barely managed to negate a pick-six and an overall abhorrent first half. All that said, it really doesn’t seem to matter as the Browns continue to overcome their offense with a steady running game and a Defensive Player of the Year–worthy performance from Myles Garrett.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (6–3)
Last week: loss vs. San Francisco, 34–3
Next week: vs. Tennessee
This loss has my radar up on the validity of Jacksonville’s previous five-game winning streak. All signs point to a moment of revelation in December, when the Jaguars get almost the entirety of the AFC North in a three-week span. At the very least, this loss was a valuable ego check, just like the 49ers’ losing streak led them to a much-needed break and a moment of clarity.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6–3)
Last week: win vs. Washington, 29–26
Next week: at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks quietly played in one of the best games of the weekend, and got a sack out of new addition Leonard Williams in the process. On a night when the Commanders were rolling, this was an important building block win for Seattle with a Thanksgiving date against the 49ers looming not too far in the distance. We’re starting to see Zach Charbonnet in the mix a little more frequently, to positive results. Seeing this offense with a bit of a pivot (or at least a new wrinkle) down the stretch would make Seattle even more intriguing.
12. Minnesota Vikings (6–4)
Last week: win vs. New Orleans, 27–19
Next week: at Denver
What a victory for Kevin O’Connell. We’re rightfully enamored with Joshua Dobbs, who, I feel, the NFL should consider awarding a share of the Comeback Player of the Year award to (Damar Hamlin cannot not win this). But this was a game won against a great defense without very many passes thrown beyond the 15-yard mark. O’Connell and Dobbs’s ability to work T.J. Hockenson into the game plan, giving him his fourth 11-plus target game of the year, was the catalyst for a fifth straight win.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6–3)
Last week: win vs. Green Bay, 23–19
Next week: at Cleveland
I loved this quote from the Associated Press’s story about Pittsburgh’s win: “It’s going to get tight. It’s going to get late. And Pittsburgh is going to somehow find a way. Even when the Steelers are outgained—which is always.” We do need to apologize to the Vikings, though. We ripped this team last year for its performances in one-score games and are lauding Pittsburgh, now winners of nine one-score games in a row.
Adrian Kraus/AP
14. Buffalo Bills (5–5)
Last week: loss vs. Denver, 24–22
Next week: vs. New York Jets
An embarrassing home loss by the Bills, who inexplicably threw a zero blitz at Russell Wilson twice in two downs when all they had to do was keep Buffalo out of field goal range. It felt like the Bills were desperate not only for a win, but for a stylistic victory dependent on Josh Allen not running, James Cook contributing and the pass rush closing out the victory. Instead, it cost them a critical game and placed them well behind the eight ball in the AFC East.
This is not even to mention having too many defenders on the field for a missed field goal at the buzzer. This was a complete and total failure on the coaching staff through and through.
15. Houston Texans (5–4)
Last week: win at Cincinnati, 30–27
Next week: vs. Arizona
My full thoughts on C.J. Stroud are here. I think we need to be better at arguing for nontraditional MVPs. Situationally, the Texans as an organization have been completely transformed and buoyed by the play of Stroud. If he is terrible, there is little hope. If there is little hope, it’s difficult for DeMeco Ryans to coach. If it’s difficult for DeMeco Ryans to coach, the team continues to spiral into what had been their reality, which is that they have fired back-to back coaches after one season and, before the start of the 2023 campaign, appeared much further away from the ’19 team that nearly made the Super Bowl than closer to a fix. That’s a lot of good done by one person!
16. Los Angeles Chargers (4–5)
Last week: loss vs. Detroit, 41–38
Next week: at Green Bay
A disappointing loss for the Chargers, who desperately needed a signature victory on the season, if only for their own confidence. There are no excuses at this point, but Detroit at full strength—and with both of its starting running backs—was an absolute nightmare of an opponent for L.A. at this particular moment in time.
17. New Orleans Saints (5–5)
Last week: loss at Minnesota, 27–19
Next week: Bye
Jameis Winston provided a spark and a stereotypically outsized average depth of target rating. But, with no offense to Derek Carr, perhaps that is what this offense needed. No one needs full-time Jameis Winston, but Winston can be a bit like a cold plunge for your offense, shocking it back to life.
18. Las Vegas Raiders (5–5)
Last week: win vs. New York Jets, 16–12
Next week: at Miami
Kudos to Antonio Pierce, who has shown why he was the obvious choice to succeed Josh McDaniels: Players love him. Did you see the moment he shared on the sideline with Robert Spillane after the game-sealing interception? Pure appreciation and affection. The broadcast was also peppered with anecdotes of players telling the TV crew about how the Pierce regime is listening to its players and incorporating their ideas. It sounds simple, and yet nearly a third of the league’s coaches turn over every year because they refuse, or have lost the ability to do it.
19. Denver Broncos (4–5)
Last week: win at Buffalo, 24–22
Next week: vs. Minnesota
Denver played a great game against the Bills and despite some oddities, did end up with the result the universe intended despite a circuitous route to get there. Buffalo got a missed extra point, a fumble that bounced right back into their running back’s hands and some other fortunate breaks, but the Broncos remained poised and took advantage of Buffalo’s completely flummoxing decision to continue zero blitzing Russell Wilson with its pedestrian pass rush. Now winners of three straight, Sean Payton’s quest for a playoff berth still lives.
20. New York Jets (4–5)
Last week: loss at Las Vegas, 16–12
Next week: at Buffalo
I don’t think I can feel any worse for Zach Wilson who, bless his heart, is carrying the weight of a city on his shoulders. I do think he’s going to be a good NFL quarterback at some point when he’s a bit older. And man, there are some plays he made Sunday night that only a few people who walk this Earth have the capability of doing. That said, I don’t know what else the Jets can do. Robert Saleh talked about schematic possibilities they have yet to try. But is there a point where you are wringing the poor kid out? At times, Wilson just looked mentally exhausted. That said, what a story it would be if he could break through this quarterbacking equivalent of a long writer’s block.
21. Indianapolis Colts (5–5)
Last week: win at New England (Frankfurt), 10–6
Next week: Bye
Is it a good defensive performance when Mac Jones is essentially trying to flip the ball to defenders in the red zone, or Bailey Zappe being forced against his will to hurl a pass into triple coverage? Maybe, still. What’s wild about this Colts team is that I am not going to pencil in a single loss with their remaining schedule. I still think this team can get weirdly hot. After a bye, the Buccaneers and Titans are up next.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–5)
Last week: win vs. Tennessee, 20–6
Next week: at San Francisco
Thank you to Baker Mayfield, who is keeping alive my pipe dream hopes of a Browns-Buccaneers Super Bowl. Mayfield is still a favorite sort of low-simmering story line of this year. He could very well finish this season with a career-best EPA per play rating and thrust himself into the thick of free agency next year, or as a Geno Smith–ian semi-long-term option in Tampa Bay.
23. Atlanta Falcons (4–6)
Last week: loss at Arizona, 25–23
Next week: Bye
I asked myself this question Sunday: if you were Arthur Blank, would you give Arthur Smith a lame-duck fourth season, but with a guaranteed entity at quarterback? I think I would be inclined to. The market will offer the likes of Ryan Tannehill and, possibly, Kirk Cousins. Baker Mayfield. Tyrod Taylor. A trade for Daniel Jones. All of these players would be better than their current options. The challenge will be for Smith to put enough on tape from here on out to legitimize that faith.
24. Washington Commanders (4–6)
Last week: loss at Seattle, 29–26
Next week: vs. New York Giants
I was silently rooting for the Commanders on Sunday, if only because I enjoy complicated situations and having the Commanders go on a post–Chase Young/Montez Sweat trade run would make for a very complicated situation. Unfortunately, it seems the Commanders are flashing just enough potential on a moment-to-moment basis that we have to wonder what the team would look like if reimagined just slightly.
25. Tennessee Titans (3–6)
Last week: loss at Tampa Bay, 20–6
Next week: at Jacksonville
Getting sacked four times and hit 13 times is not the recipe for Will Levis moving forward, but the Titans seem to be in a kind of evaluation mode at this point. Of course, the moment I cement this belief they will rip off wins against the Jaguars, Panthers and Colts, echoing my sentiments in the introduction.
26. Green Bay Packers (3–6)
Last week: loss at Pittsburgh, 23–19
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s difficult to square what this offense could be—see: the first touchdown drive that ends with a beautiful touchdown pass in the corner of the end zone—with what it is consistently. At the moment, this is an offense at the back end of the middle of the road in almost every conceivable category.
27. Los Angeles Rams (3–6)
Last week: Bye
Next week: vs. Seattle
Coming out of the bye, the Rams have another crack at a Seahawks team they were able to stun in the season opener. Matthew Stafford is back, Carson Wentz is in the building, and the only question left is: will they prove me right, amid a horrible year of me giving gambling advice, that this team was worth betting the win total over? (Over 6.5 wins, come on Rams, you can do it.)
Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK
28. Arizona Cardinals (2–8)
Last week: win vs. Atlanta, 25–23
Next week: at Houston
The Cardinals have now piqued our interest, much in the way the Bears did down the stretch last year. So, buyer beware. That said, I feel like there are reasons to buy in blindly now: Kyler Murray is a more stable option than Justin Fields. And the supporting cast of role players are being better utilized to the best of their abilities. With another year of team building, this Cardinals team could be the full realization of what we’d hoped the Falcons would be in 2023.
29. New York Giants (2–8)
Last week: loss at Dallas, 49–17
Next week: at Washington
I had a long wish list of narratives I wish had come to fruition Sunday, the grandest of which would have been Tommy DeVito, with his committed and loving New Jersey–based family in attendance, whooping the Cowboys on national television. Alas, we can’t have it all. That said, we need to leave the Giants alone. They are doing the absolute best they can. This is not the tire fire some would like to make it out to be.
30. New England Patriots (2–8)
Last week: loss vs. Indianapolis (Frankfurt), 10–6
Next week: Bye
I have done all I can to write and advocate for a peaceful de-escalation in the Bill Belichick saga. I wish Boston would love him now, as it inevitably will in 15 years when it is time for statues and banners. I wish he and Robert Kraft would hug publicly. I wish he would sign a 10-year extension. Alas, all good things must come to an end. I have resigned myself to the fact that this will likely happen at season’s end.
31. Chicago Bears (3–7)
Last week: win vs. Carolina, 16–13
Next week: at Detroit
I think the goal for the Bears is to not get their doors blown off by the Lions twice in the next three weeks. This team’s sole purpose is to create good vibes once again heading into an offseason of historic draft capital. However, the potential for a tipping point is there.
32. Carolina Panthers (1–8)
Last week: loss at Chicago, 16–13
Next week: vs. Dallas
This Panthers team is still pretty capable defensively, and, while defensive stats can be misleading (see: Carolina’s numbers against the pass and the run, and the massive discrepancy between those two), Carolina is still a top-10 unit in drives ending with an offensive touchdown. I don’t think this entire team is a throwaway, and I would be curious to see what this defense looks like with complementary football on the other side of the ball.
