If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Falcons at Panthers (+3) (O/U: 44.5)
Falcons: 4-5 (6-2-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Panthers: 2-7 (3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Playing for the second time in three weeks, I have to think these teams have a good read on one another. But if not for the Panthers Hail Mary, the first game wouldn’t have ended as close as it did.
2
Seahawks at Buccaneers (-2.5) (O/U: 44.5)
Seahawks: 6-3 (6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Buccaneers: 4-5 (2-6-1 ATS, 2-7 O/U)
The Seahawks just keep winning against all odds. Now they go in as an underdog once again, and I’m not sure I agree with the spread.
3
Vikings at Bills (-6.5) (O/U: 46)
Vikings: 7-1 (3-4-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Bills: 6-2 (4-4 ATS, 1-7 O/U)
Josh Allen’s elbow injury adds a cloud over what has the potential to be an explosive game. But even if he plays, this spread feels a little too big.
4
Jaguars at Chiefs (-9.5) (O/U: 50.5)
Jaguars: 3-6 (3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Chiefs: 6-2 (3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
KC is obviously the better team and should win, but picking a team that’s just 3-5 ATS to cover nearly 10 points doesn’t feel wise.
5
Lions at Bears (-3) (O/U: 48.5)
Lions: 2-6 (4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Bears: 3-6 (4-4-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
The Bears?! Favored by a field goal? Wow. And even more shocking, I’m legitimately baffled on which way to go. Chicago’s close loss to Miami was arguably more impressive than Detroit’s win over a bad Packers team. But the only other time Chicago was favored this year resulted in a push.
6
Browns at Dolphins (-4) (O/U: 48.5)
Browns: 3-5 (4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Dolphins: 6-3 (3-5-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
Miami’s defense continues to hold the team back from being a truly confident ATS bet. Would it really surprise anyone if the Browns found a way to put up a lot of points in a close loss?
7
Broncos at Titans (-3) (O/U: 39)
Broncos: 3-5 (3-5 ATS, 1-7 O/U)
Titans: 5-3 (6-2 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
An over/under that low begs you to take the points, but I’d still consider the under as well. Just look at how many of these teams’ games have landed under, 13 of 16.
8
Saints at Steelers (+2.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Saints: 3-6 (3-6 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Steelers: 2-6 (3-4-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
The Saints are wildly inconsistent on both sides of the ball, and I don’t trust that to change in Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers are just bad enough that it might not matter.
9
Texans at Giants (-6.5) (O/U: 39.5)
Texans: 1-6-1 (4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Giants: 6-2 (6-2 ATS, 1-7 O/U)
The Giants aren’t really a team I think of as being able to spot anybody a touchdown. But then there’s Houston, which I don’t think of at all. New York’s bye week prep might be the difference here.
10
Colts at Raiders (-6) (O/U: 42.5)
Colts: 3-5-1 (3-6 ATS, 1-8 O/U)
Raiders: 2-6 (3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
The Raiders keep playing teams I think are just a little worse than they are, and they keep finding ways to lose to those teams. But the Colts with a new head coach who has never coached before seems as winnable as they come.
11
Cardinals at Rams (-3) (O/U: 43.5)
Cardinals: 3-6 (4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U)
Rams: 3-5 (2-5-1 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
This game will probably be decided between the Rams offense and Cardinals defense, as the other units will each have their moments. The Cards have allowed at least 30 points in three straight games.
12
Cowboys at Packers (+5.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Cowboys: 6-2 (6-2 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
Packers: 3-6 (3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
If the Packers could barely score on the Lions, I’m afraid of what they’ll look like against Micah Parsons and company. This could end in a shutout, which puts the under very much in play.
13
Chargers at 49ers (-7) (O/U: 46.5)
Chargers: 5-3 (4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
49ers: 4-4 (4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Two of the underwhelming teams in West divisions that feel like they can break out with better health luck. This game is hard to call without knowing the status of players like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
14
Commanders at Eagles (-11) (O/U: 44)
Commanders: 4-5 (4-4-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U)
Eagles: 8-0 (5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
The Commanders are playing some competitive football with Taylor Heinicke under center, even if they still took the loss in Week 9. This spread feels huge against an Eagles team that didn’t cover against the Texans.
