We’re more than halfway through the NFL season after this weekend.
For the last time, the slate kicks off with an international tilt, as the Patriots technically host the Colts in Germany. From there, the Sunday schedule gets rolling, highlighted in the early window by the Jaguars hosting the 49ers with both teams coming off their respective bye weeks.
Of the 13 games ahead, each has a unique matchup that could be both hiding, and deciding the game at hand. Let’s take a look at them below.
Indianapolis Colts (4–4) at New England Patriots (2–7)
Key matchup: Zach Moss, Jonathan Taylor vs. Patriots’ run defense
Indianapolis has run the ball well this season, ranking tied for ninth in yards per carry (4.3). The Colts have enjoyed an excellent year from Moss, who has already totaled 615 rushing yards.
However, both Moss and Taylor will have tough yardage to find against the Patriots, who allow 3.5 yards per carry, second-best in the league.
New Orleans Saints (5–4) at Minnesota Vikings (5–4)
Key matchup: Derek Carr vs. Vikings’ safeties
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Carr has been an upgrade in New Orleans over Andy Dalton, but he’s still struggling to stretch the field. The Saints rank tied for 25th by throwing or 10.3 yards per completion.
Meanwhile, the Vikings do a nice job of limiting damage on completions. Helped by its league-high blitz rate, Minnesota is holding opponents to 10.2 yards per completion, tied for seventh-best.
Green Bay Packers (3–5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5–3)
Key matchup: Steelers blitzes vs. Jordan Love’s protection
It’s no secret the Steelers like to bring pressure whenever they can. And despite having T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith off the edges, Pittsburgh blitzes at a rate of 38%, third-highest in football.
This could pose a challenge for the Packers, who have done a nice job of getting the ball out of Love’s right hand before defenders get home. Green Bay has only allowed pressure on 18.3% of dropbacks, eighth-best in the NFL.
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Tennessee Titans (3–5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–5)
Key matchup: Titans’ third-down offense vs. Buccaneers defense
Tennessee hasn’t been consistent on offense this year, although it’s now more explosive with rookie quarterback Will Levis at the helm. One of the Titans’ biggest struggles? Converting third downs, where they rank 29th at 32.3%.
However, Tennessee might get healthy this week. Tampa Bay is a mess defensively on third down, checking in 31st in the metric at 48.2%.
San Francisco 49ers (5–3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6–2)
Key matchup: Trevor Lawrence vs. Niners’ front four
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The Jaguars love their quick passing game, something they’ve employed since Doug Pederson became coach in 2022. This season, no team has averaged less time per dropback, with Jacksonville at two seconds flat.
With San Francisco bringing a pass rush featuring Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson, Javon Hargrave and Chase Young, getting rid of the ball quickly is imperative.
Houston Texans (4–4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5–3)
Key matchup: C.J. Stroud’s big plays vs. Bengals’ secondary
Stroud lit up the Buccaneers last Sunday, throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns. This week, he draws a Bengals defense that has allowed 12.1 yards per completion, second-worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, Houston checks in second offensively in the metric at 13.1.
If Houston can get some big plays on Cincinnati through the air, it could spring the smell of an upset.
Cleveland Browns (5–3) at Baltimore Ravens (7–2)
Key matchup: Browns’ red-zone offense vs. Ravens inside 20-yard line
The Ravens and Browns have two of the league’s best defenses, so scoring inside the red zone will be pivotal for both sides.
Baltimore has been excellent defensively inside the 20, only allowing touchdowns 33.3% of the time. Meanwhile, Cleveland is eighth at 63.6% on offense inside the red zone.
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Atlanta Falcons (4–5) at Arizona Cardinals (1–8)
Key matchup: Cardinals’ receivers gaining YAC vs. Atlanta’s secondary
The Falcons are under .500, but it’s not because of the secondary. Atlanta has done a nice job of squeezing opposing receivers after the catch, only allowing 858 yards in that situation, eighth-best in football.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals don’t threaten at all when the wideouts have the ball in their hands. Arizona is dead last in yards after catch with only 701.
Detroit Lions (6–2) at Los Angeles Chargers (4–4)
Key matchup: Chargers’ red-zone offense vs. Lions inside 20
Los Angeles has scuffled its way to a .500 record, and tries to climb above the threshold for the first time this year against the Lions. If the Chargers win, it’ll likely be because of its red-zone offense, which ranks second at 69.2%.
While Detroit is a quality defensive team, it has struggled inside its own 20-yard line. The Lions are 27th in the red zone, allowing touchdowns 65.4% of trips.
New York Giants (2–7) at Dallas Cowboys (5–3)
Key matchup: Giants’ protection of Tommy DeVito vs. Cowboys’ front
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Not shockingly, this could be a problem. The Giants have allowed more sacks (49) than anybody else this season, and the front is banged up once more with Evan Neal having an ankle injury.
This is an issue against the Cowboys, who can get after anybody with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence up front.
Washington Commanders (4–5) at Seattle Seahawks (5–3)
Key matchup: Sam Howell going up top vs. Seahawks’ secondary
Howell is second in the NFL with 2,471 passing yards. And to credit Howell, a whopping 1,383 have been air yards, ranking third in the league only behind Minnesota and Miami.
While Seattle’s back end has a pair of terrific young corners in Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, it can be beat. The Seahawks have permitted 1,126 air yards, ranking a middling 19th.
New York Jets (4–4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4–5)
Key matchup: Jets’ third-down offense vs. Raiders defense
New York has the worst third-down conversion rate over the last 45 years, checking in at 22.1%. Facing the Raiders, the Jets need to find relative success in this metric to win.
Las Vegas has struggled badly in an effort to win defensively on third down, ranking 26th (43.1%). Can Maxx Crosby and Co. do the job?
Denver Broncos (3–5) at Buffalo Bills (5–4)
Key matchup: Broncos’ pressure vs. Josh Allen’s pocket
The Broncos have won their last two games, but coming out of the bye, they must find a pass rush. Denver ranks 31st in pressure rate (16.3%), only better than the Bears.
Conversely, the Bills have done a nice job protecting Allen. Buffalo only allows pressure on 18.5% of dropbacks, checking in ninth.
