Denver Broncos
After years of treading water, the Broncos were finally able to engineer a move for one of the game’s top quarterbacks this offseason, landing Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade in March.
Adding Wilson transforms the Broncos’ calculus. Denver already had a strong core prior to Wilson’s arrival, including a gifted offensive line and a stacked receiving unit. Wilson should finally be the post-Manning quarterback who can make it all sing in Colorado.
There is excitement on defense, too. When you add a superstar at quarterback, things just slot into place, don’t they? This Broncos defense is built to play with a lead, the kind they rarely mustered behind Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater. There are stars throughout the secondary, and by adding Randy Gregory they’ve been able to paper over the Von Miller-sized hole that appeared in their front in the middle of last season.
There’s only one real question mark looming over the Broncos’ playoff hopes: How will first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett handle his debut season? Wilson runs his own, specific kind of offense, one that doesn’t flow naturally with what Hackett, an offensive-minded coach, prefers to run. It’s a lot to ask of a first-year coach to navigate those waters while also running a franchise, and all while up against a pair of juggernauts in Los Angeles and Kansas City in the AFC West. The Broncos may be a year away from truly challenging.
Turnaround chances: Would be better in a different division
Baltimore Ravens
Of all of this year’s turnaround candidates, the Ravens are the safest bet. There are no stylistic issues, no talent concerns. They are loaded on both sides of the ball.
Baltimore were one of the disappointments of 2021. Injuries drained the team of depth. Difference-makers missed crucial parts of the season. An injury to Lamar Jackson sapped the offense of its one-man firepower. The Football Gods worked overtime: the turnover luck that Jackson has experienced throughout his career swung back the other way. Jackson finished with 19 turnovers in 12 games.
It will be different this year. Jackson is healthy. The team is healthy – and has depth all over the field. They enter this season having added [deep inhale]: Marcus Williams (the best free safety in football), Kyle Hamilton (the best safety prospect in the draft), Tyler Linderbaum (the best center prospect in the draft), Morgan Moses, Kyle Fuller, Michael Pierce and David Ojabo.
There is some squawking about the lack of receiving options after the team dealt away Marquise Brown. But Brown has long been more of a flashy name than a genuine game-changer. The Ravens offense is all about the system. And that system revolves around Lamar Jackson. When he’s healthy, it works.
The AFC North is in flux. The Steelers are in the middle of an offensive overhaul. The Browns are committed to doing things that are offensive. A straight shootout between the Ravens and Bengals should be in the offing. If Jackson is healthy, he’s an MVP candidate. And if the Ravens have an MVP candidate at quarterback, they are the frontrunners in the division.
Turnaround chances: Fans may want to research Phoenix-area package deals
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hardly worth discussing the Chargers as ‘turnaround’ candidates. They featured one of the best offenses in football last season, thanks mostly to fielding the game’s top young quarterback – already a top-five (three?) player at the position coming into only his third year in the league. At some point soon, Justin Herbert will be the highest-paid player in the NFL. Right now, he is the league’s top market inefficiency.
Think about this: Herbert will count less towards the salary cap for the Chargers this year than Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance do for their respective teams.
Herbert will cost half as much as Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield and SAM DARNOLD.
Herbert will cost roughly a quarter as much as Kirk Cousins, JIMMY GAROPPOLO, CARSON WENTZ and JARED GOFF!
Oh, and Herbert will be [passes out, recovers senses] five times cheaper against the cap than Ryan Tannehill.
The Chargers stacked strength-on-strength this offseason, adding valuable pieces to the Herbert-backed offense, while using their star’s relatively meagre salary to fund a spending spree on defense. The Chargers’ defense stunk in 2021: historically bad against the run and predictable against the pass. It should improve this year, if for no reason other than the additions of Khalil Mack, JC Jackson and Sebastian Joseph-Day.
It’s hard to find a more talented roster, top-to-bottom, in the entire NFL. Leaping from out-of-the-playoffs to a championship run is tough, but that should be the expectation for the Chargers.
Turnaround chances: Anything less than a Super Bowl challenge will be a disappointment
Indianapolis Colts
Another year, another raft of changes for the Colts. Swapping out Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan at quarterback was one of the healthier upgrades of the offseason. Unlike other sides staring down the AFC’s quarterback standoff, the Colts need only worry about contending in their own division. Win 10 games, pip the Titans to the AFC South division title, and they will make the playoffs. With Ryan offering solid quarterback play and a defense laden with talent, 10 wins should be the floor.
Yet while Colts Pravda will point to this finally being the year that everything clicks together – Ryan is finally the right quarterback after a succession of wannabees and maybes – there are cracks.
Chief among the concerns is the defense. Former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus left in the offseason to be the head honcho in Chicago. It’s who the Colts replaced him with: Gus Bradley.
Eberflus ran a particular, conservative style, one that made it hard for opposing quarterbacks to throw deep down the field. That system put his best defenders in the best spots to succeed. With the talent on the Colts roster, it worked – and they added even more talent and depth in the offseason.
But Bradley’s defense is different. It’s aggressive, and a galaxy shift from Eberflus’ approach. As a coach, Bradley has shown an unwillingness to evolve away from a style that was outdated two seasons ago. Will Bradley adjust to his new team, keeping some of Eberflus’ principles, or force the Colts’ square pegs into his schematic round hole? Bringing Yannick Ngakoue with him from the Raiders in exchange for the reliable Rock Ya-Sin should set off alarm bells.
And there are questions elsewhere. Is the receiving corps good enough? Can the o-line, a notoriously unstable unit year-to-year, continue to crank out a dominant rushing attack?
Turnaround chances: Depends on how the new regime settles in
Detroit Lions
Are you starting to believe in the Fighting Dan Campbells yet? Take away all the Lionsy-ness. Remove the idea of the Jared Goff of it all. Now, look at the rest of the roster.
Detroit will start the season with one of the league’s premier offensive lines – you can make an easy case that they have a Pro Bowl-caliber starter at four of the five spots. The offense as a whole is young and dynamic. Lions GM Brad Holmes has assembled an electric receiving group, headlined by DJ Chark and first-round pick Jameson Williams, the most explosive receiver in the 2022 draft. Besides that, you have Amon-Ra St Brown, who was a menace during the final stretch of 2021.
Not content with a fully stocked receiver group, the Lions tack on TJ Hockenson at tight end and D’Andre Swift at running back. The average age of all those weapons? 24. The only remaining question on offense: Can Goff deliver serviceable quarterback play?
The defense is more of a concern. The group was a sieve last year, partly due to injuries and partly due to the team chucking as many young players out on the field as possible to see who was worth investing in for the long-term. The Lions would hope to see growth this year, particularly with the addition of second overall pick Aidan Hutchinson, and the return of cornerback Jeff Okudah after an injury-hit season.
Is there a world in which things get weird in Green Bay? In which Justin Fields struggles in Chicago without a viable supporting cast, sinking the Bears season? In which the Vikings are unable to scotch tape together a defense and Kevin O’Connell is unable to squeeze any extra percentage points out of the Minnesota offense in his first year as head coach? You bet. And the Lions will be waiting.
Turnaround chances: Not as far away as some think
