The top seeds held serve on the AFC side of the 2024 NFL playoff bracket. The Dallas Cowboys prevented the same from happening in the NFC.
Dallas was the lone home team to lose in the wild card round, even if Mike McCarthy’s team wasn’t the only betting favorite to fall. The Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns joined the Cowboys en route to a frustrating, early offseason despite grand Super Bowl 58 plans, setting up this week’s four divisional round showdowns.
It’s a slate our expert panel sees as pretty chalky. Our four analysts only have one upset in the bunch — and it’s for the team that comes into the quarterfinals as the weekend’s biggest underdog. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers looked good enough to make a run to the NFC title game while dispatching Dallas, but now they have to deal with an opponent that doesn’t vomit down its own shirt when confronted with a playoff game each January.
Well, let’s take a look at our divisional round picks. Analysis follows.
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles | Prince |
| Texans at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Packers at 49ers | 49ers | Packers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Buccaneers at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Chiefs at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Last week: | 4-2 | 2-4 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Year to date: | 193-85 | 148-98 | 187-91 | 175-97 |
And here are those picks in an easier to read table.
Easiest game to pick: San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) over the Green Bay Packers
First off, none of these games are easy to pick. This one has the biggest spread, but it’s not difficult to envision a Green Bay win after they devised a way for the Dallas Cowboys to drop anvil after anvil on their own heads last week. The Houston Texans are fired up after picking apart a great, but depleted, Cleveland Browns defense last week. Throw in the playoff factor and it’s reasonable to think either of these touchdown-plus underdogs could win.
However, the 49ers have a handful of distinct advantages over a visiting Packers team. Kyle Shanahan is 2-0 against Matt LaFleur in the postseason, even with the worse quarterback in each matchup and despite being outgained each game. San Francisco has the league’s third-lowest blitz rate but ranked 13th in quarterback pressures and tied for seventh in sacks. That defense can make Jordan Love uncomfortable in a way the Cowboys did not, leaving extra help in the secondary to limit the number of wide, wide open receivers who power the Green Bay passing attack.
That will require Aaron Jones to step up once again. But while he averages just under six yards per carry in his career against Dallas, that number drops below four vs. the Niners. If he can’t be special, the Packers will have to fall back on a defense that’s punched well above its weight class lately but remains a unit that gives up big yards to playmaking tailbacks. The Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons all gained more than 200 yards on the ground vs. Green Bay. They also all won.
That’s a bad scene against a rested Christian McCaffrey and the host of playmakers around him. The Pack can mitigate that weakness by forcing turnovers; they were 3-0 against fellow playoff teams while forcing two or more and 1-3 when they failed. Unfortunately for them, San Francisco’s 18 turnovers is the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL.
Thus, I think Green Bay can be better than oddsmakers think on the West Coast. I also think San Francisco is strong in a lot of ways the Cowboys were weak, and that gives the home team more ways to win.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Postseason record: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 14-5 (.737)
Hardest favorite to back: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over the Kansas CIty Chiefs
The Chiefs have never lost to Josh Allen in the postseason. But they’ve lost the two regular season matchups since. All four of those games took place in western Missouri, while this one trudges north for a different kind of cold in the divisional round.
Neither team is quite what we expected at the beginning of the year. Kansas City hasn’t had its all-caps OFFENSE thanks to a weak receiving corps and some frustrated decision-making from Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo is prone to long lulls and turnovers and will field a defense whose linebacker and cornerback corps have been devastated by injury — exactly what you don’t want when dealing with Mahomes, Travis Kelce and whatever nonsense the Chiefs’ offense can throw at you.
But Allen has been the better playmaker than Mahomes and has worked within the confines of his top-heavy receiving unit in more explosive ways than his peer. He can bring a rocket launcher to any shootout. That’s probably going to manifest in some mistakes, Kansas City has generally struggled to create turnovers this season (17 in the regular season, 27th-best in the NFL).
Plus, hoooo buddy, Buffalo is going to be LOUD Sunday. A 24 degree day will pack the stadium and ensure a lively current of Fireball coursing through the stands. The Bills have been waiting years to exact their revenge on the Chiefs in a game that means more than a brief tick down the standings. Now they get it.
Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Postseason record: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 17-2 (.895)
Upset pick of the week: n/a
Yep, I’m all chalk this week. Boring, right?
If I had to pick a winner from the plus side of the odds table, I … kinda like the Texans? A young team seized the moment last week at home as underdogs against the Cleveland Browns. Things will obviously be different outdoors in Baltimore — Houston has only played one game this season where the temperature dipped under 50 degrees and none under 40 — but CJ Stroud is coming off a game against the Browns top 10 pass rush where he wasn’t sacked at all and only pressured thrice. He’s going to have room to operate and impress us all once more.
Will that be enough to topple the Ravens? Probably not. They’ll find ways to rattle the rookie and the Houston defense will have a significantly tougher time stopping Lamar Jackson than it did Joe Flacco. The Texans may not have the wideout and tight end depth to make a dent on the Baltimore secondary. But hey, it’ll be a lot of fun finding out.
Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Postseason record: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 13-7 (.650)
