For the first time in a few decades, it feels like the Raiders finally have a roster that could compete for a Super Bowl. The offense should be among the best in the NFL and they have a pair of EDGE rushers that should strike fear into opponents.
But how likely is it that the Raiders even make the playoffs? In a recent article by Austin Mock of The Athletic, he simulated the NFL season 100,000 times to see just how likely it was that the Raiders would make the playoffs (and win the Super Bowl).
His model projected the Raiders to win between 8 and 9 games in most seasons, narrowly missing the playoffs. In the 100,000 simulations, the Raiders made the playoffs just 32.8% of the time.
One of the biggest concerns that Mock’s model had for the Raiders this season was their pass defense. Here is what he had to say about the defense entering the season:
“The defense doesn’t make any improvement from a unit that ranked 26th in EPA/Dropback (rbsdm.com), and the Raiders don’t even sniff the playoffs.
Sure, they made the playoffs last season with the defense playing that poorly, but the AFC and the division have improved. The Raiders won’t be able to survive a horrid pass defense playing two games apiece against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.”
In the simulation, the Raiders won the Super Bowl just over one percent of the time. That’s not all that surprising considering how much of an unknown their offensive line and secondary are entering the season.
But if the Raiders can clean up those two spots as the year goes along, they will have a legitimate chance of making a run in the AFC. Needless to say, this season should be a lot of fun for fans of the Las Vegas Raiders.
