Yet another fresh slate of 272 NFL regular-season games is upon us. While most of the football-loving world is counting down to Game No. 1 on Thursday night, I am back with my annual Labor Day Weekend tradition, zooming right ahead to #Game272.
Welcome back to my (can you believe it?) ninth annual Week 18 Sunday Night Football Flex Power Rankings. I promise you, you can’t find this anywhere else.
Why do I do this? Who even remembers at this point. But once again I will look into my crystal ball, rummage through a tarot deck, examine the omens in the skies and try to predict which two teams will be flexed into prime time when we reach The Crown Jewel of the Regular Season™.
Last year, I engaged in a bit of self-scouting and altered my strategy. It seemed to me that when the league added two Saturday games to Week 18’s entirely flexible schedule, it shifted more games with wild-card implications into Sunday Night Football, while “less appealing” de facto division title games could play out on Saturday.
And what happened? We got a good old fashioned AFC East championship game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in the final game of the regular season. This game was No. 3 on my preseason list, which actually qualifies as my best pick in my whole run of completing this exercise. But I must tell you, dear reader: I felt nothing. While I do think carefully about each choice from one through 16, I didn’t start this ridiculous column to take a victory lap about getting my third-best choice. I’m in this until I finally nail it one of these years.
As always, these rankings are not what I’m rooting for, but what I think is most likely to happen. I have to take into account the quality of the teams, and also factors such as television markets and national appeal, since the league ultimately makes these decisions with both playoff ramifications and TV ratings in mind.
So here we go again with the world’s most backward NFL season preview. Who cares about how the playoffs play out? Let me tell you how the regular season is going to conclude.
16. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
As always, there are few games I think we can throw away right off the bat, with a few of the teams least likely to contend for a playoff spot. Of course, that logic had me rank the Texans’ game at Indianapolis No. 14 last year, so what do I know? But I feel comfortable saying the Panthers are not going to be in the playoff hunt come January, and the NFC South feels more like a Week 18 Saturday kind of game this year anyway.
15. Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
I may come to regret putting a team as talented as the Bills all the way down here, but this is much more a statement about the Patriots. I just don’t see it. Last year, I ranked a Patriots-Jets game very high, thinking that even if New England was eliminated early, Bill Belichick would have his team playing competitively down the stretch, and especially against a hated rival. That turned out to be … not quite right! Having seen both last season play out and this season’s Patriots roster, I have no such qualms. Yes, this game may matter to the Bills, but I think there will be other options.
14. Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
These two teams treated us to a classic Game 272 in January 2022, when they nearly tied and everyone was left debating a Brandon Staley timeout that led to a Raiders field goal late in overtime. This time around, I nearly ranked this matchup No. 15, but decided to give a little Jim Harbaugh bump to the Chargers. I think if they gave an award for Media Obsession of the Year, he’d be the betting favorite going into this season. People will have an interest in everything he does, which would make this a notable game if the Chargers are in contention. I don’t think the Raiders are quite there, but if we get more of the Antonio Pierce team that clobbered these Chargers 63–21 last December, then sure, flex them into prime time.
13. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
This represents a slight vote of confidence for the Cardinals, a team I think is more likely to hang around the fringes of the playoff race than some of the other projected Week 18 underdogs we’ve already run through. But let’s not get too carried away. The 49ers of recent seasons have presented some risk of already having their playoff fate wrapped up, which would mean a meaningless Week 18. I do think they will still have something to play for this year, and I think NBC would be happy if this game mattered, but I also predict there are more likely games to pick from.
12. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here’s the other NFC South game, already. But I’ll rank this one higher than—though not too high—given that I think this game is more likely to still matter to both teams than one involving the Panthers. A Bucs-Falcons game would have rated much higher on my list, but alas, the schedule makers had other ideas. The NFC South is the only division that has never been represented in the final game of the season since this became a thing (there’s a fun fact for you to share at your next party), and I don’t think we’ll see it for the first time this season.
11. Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are clearly the new Patriots, when it comes to prolonged NFL success. Last season, the people who analyze TV ratings started to wonder aloud whether they are actually the new Cowboys when it comes to national intrigue. So while I’d normally put the Broncos lower, I gave this game a Chiefs bump. If Kansas City is in any sort of must-win scenario—whether a win clinches the AFC West or the No. 1 seed—I could see the team chasing a three-peat getting flexed, even if the Broncos are out of it. Though this game loses points by virtue of this being played in Denver. If this game gets flexed because it’s a possible Chiefs celebration, that would be much more fun in front of a sellout at Arrowhead.
10. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
It’s incredible how quickly the Texans have turned around from being the type of team that fires its head coach after three consecutive seasons to being regarded as possibly the new perennial force in the AFC. There is currently a ton of interest in DeMeco Ryans’s team, featuring C.J. Stroud and the rest of a talented young core Houston has assembled. The Titans are not the greatest dance partner in this exercise though, as I think it’ll take more than one year for new coach Brian Callahan to get Tennessee back in the playoff hunt. Still, the AFC South is often muddy and close, so stranger things have happened.
9. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
These rankings have had an admitted NFC East bias since I started them. That’s been by design, given that we have so often seen this division flexed into prime time, including in Week 18 (2011, ’12, ’13, ’20), and that NBC executives have come right out and said they love the NFC East (to which the world said: Duh). But the rate of NFC East flexes has slowed down, for Week 18 at least, and I don’t love the way these matchups are set up this year. If there’s an NFC East title game, I think it’ll clearly warrant consideration, but I don’t think we’re going to see that from Giants-Eagles …
8. Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
… or Commanders-Cowboys. Eagles-Cowboys might have been No. 1 on my list. But the two division favorites have been split up. I’ll rank this game a little higher of the two, because I think the Commanders are more interesting than the Giants (new coach, exciting rookie quarterback) and also more likely to be in the race. Plus, the Cowboys are the Cowboys, a significant driver of that interest in this division. But I just can’t get past these matchups, which is why both NFC East games are straddling the midpoint of my rankings.
7. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
There are two divisions I haven’t gotten to yet, which means they will combine to make up four of my top seven games. One of those is the AFC North, where I think preseason opinion is scattered across the board. The Bengals have proven to be Super Bowl contenders when Joe Burrow is healthy, and Mike Tomlin’s Steelers seem to be wild-card contenders even in their worst seasons. While I do have the Steelers finishing outside of the playoff bubble, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this game matters for both teams by the time we get to Week 18. I think there are plenty of other factors here too: a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow, a good rivalry, a fun stadium environment in Pittsburgh. And if the Steelers do find themselves in playoff position, it would be an interesting story whether it’s behind Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.
6. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
And, as you may have deduced by now, the NFC North is the other division with two games near the top of my rankings. The Lions have replaced the Bills as America’s sentimental favorites, and there will be massive interest in their story if they have a crucially important Week 18 game. We have seen them get prime TV treatment in recent years, from Game 272 in 2022 to Week 1 Opening Night last season. The Vikings may not be an obvious candidate here, but they seem to have a habit of being better than people expect (in the regular season, at least). This is another game I’ve circled where one team may be competing for a division and the other for a wild card. The Vikings are holding this matchup back from being in my top five, but this game has sneaky potential.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are the betting favorites in the AFC South, but a) I could see either of these teams making a run at them, and b) I could easily see this being a game where the winner is assured of a wild-card spot and the loser is eliminated for the season. The big question is whether that would mean the game gets flexed to Saturday instead of Game 272, but that depends on what other games matter. Still, I will grant a strong ranking to a division that feels hard to pin down, with a bunch of good story lines. Doug Pederson could be coaching for his job, with Trevor Lawrence’s career possibly facing more turnover. And it would be fun to see Anthony Richardson still on his feet after 18 weeks or even another Joe Flacco playoff run if he's not. But I do think other markets typically move the needle more, and this would have to be the clear best option.
4. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
As alluded to above, I think the AFC North satisfies both halves of a Venn diagram if we were plotting divisions based on being both wide open and very good. Ravens vs. Bengals would have been my ideal pairing out of this group, but I’d settle for Ravens-Browns. Baltimore is coming off a No. 1 seed, and the Browns have now made the playoffs twice under Kevin Stefanski after advancing to the postseason once in the previous 21 years since returning to the NFL. I do not have high expectations for Deshaun Watson this season, but Cleveland proved last year it can contend even with him. If this game is Lamar Jackson against an elite defense in a game with high-stakes playoff ramifications for both sides, sign me up to watch it in prime time.
3. Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
We know this is a matchup NBC loves (remember the NFL’s 100th season, when NBC gave us these two teams in Week 1, complete with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth in old-timey press outfits?). The game looks as good on paper in 2024 as it did in 1924, too. The Packers showed their potential in the Jordan Love era down the stretch last season. And the Bears will be one of the more interesting teams in the league, to see how good No. 1 pick Caleb Williams plays with the talent surrounding him. There are plenty of people out there picking the Packers to beat the Lions for the division title, and I’m also seeing lots of love for the Bears as a wild-card sleeper. There are several avenues to make this a crucial game worthy of being flexed, and it would be the third time since 2015 that Game 272 finds its way to Lambeau Field. If the Bears are in the hunt, and Williams is as big a draw as he seems to be after the preseason, this would be a fun option.
2. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
I really, really struggled to pick between my top two games on this list. Our staff playoff predictions will be published Wednesday and, spoiler alert, I’m high on both of these teams. I tried to weigh what was more likely and would be deemed more desirable. The Rams are a perennial playoff team. The Seahawks have entered Week 18 in each of the past two seasons still alive, but needing a win and help to get in (as I spoke to Tyler Lockett about recently), which means they haven’t been an ideal Game 272 candidate. But they’ve been right in the mix. They don’t even need to be a full game better to be flexed into prime time, merely for the tiebreakers to fall differently. I love a good NFC West battle, and after years of Sean McVay vs. Pete Carroll, I’m excited to see what this rivalry looks like with Mike Macdonald on Seattle’s sideline trying to defend against that Rams offense.
1. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
It feels like there’s been less hoopla around the Jets this offseason, at least compared to this time last year when Aaron Rodgers was new in town and the Hard Knocks hype machine was cranked to 11. Maybe there’s a little more fatigue after Rodgers’s injury four snaps into the season left us with an endless string of prime-time Jets games without him. But we know the TV networks still value Rodgers—and New York—and I think if this now two-year saga sets up where the Jets have a win-and-in game, that’s not just an obvious draw but a dream scenario for the people in charge of these decisions. On the other side, the Dolphins have made the playoffs in Mike McDaniel’s first two seasons (and were flexed into Game 272 last year!). There could be a lot more intrigue in another playoff run in which McDaniel and Tau Tagovailoa try to prove they can win in cold weather. This game could be for the division title, a wild-card berth or one of each. Either way, I think it would have huge appeal. And one of these years, I’m going to be right.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Schedule 2024: The Week 18 Sunday Night Football Flex Power Rankings.
