Josh Allen is a five-time AFC East champion. He’s a second-team All-Pro. He’s made three Pro Bowls. He’s reached the conference title game.
And in four weeks, should he continue to play well, he’ll be an NFL MVP.
Going into the season, the Buffalo Bills were widely expected to take a step back after trading away star receiver Stefon Diggs and losing fellow wideout Gabe Davis in free agency. Longtime center Mitch Morse was also released.
Allen has responded by playing the best football of his career. He’s first in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. He’s accounted for 32 total touchdowns (including six last week in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams) and has thrown just five interceptions, cutting down significantly on what has long been a problem. He also has Buffalo at 10–3 and is easily the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs reaching their fifth Super Bowl in six seasons.
There’s still a month to go. Plenty can happen. But right now, Allen is playing like a man possessed.
Now, let’s get to the NFL quarterback rankings, starting with a brief explainer.
- This isn’t a power ranking based on this season alone. The further we get, the more it matters, but think of it this way … based on historical play and current output, who would I want as my favorite team’s starting quarterback?
- This isn’t just passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions. Those factor in, but we’re also looking at more advanced analytics. Let’s get the full picture.
- I am ranking all 32 quarterbacks every month, sticking to the ones who started the most recent week.
- While I’m writing about all 32 quarterbacks, there will be a special focus on eight who deserve extra attention. Those players are bolded.
For the last rankings, after Week 11, click here. All analytics in the articles are courtesy of RBSDM.
32. Drew Lock, New York Giants
LR: Not ranked
This really isn’t about Lock. Sure, he’s a middling backup who doesn’t have a ton of tools sans a strong arm, but this is more about the Giants and their complete ineptitude.
New York has now started three quarterbacks (Daniel Jones and Tommy DeVito the others) and can’t win with any of them. At season’s end, it’s tough to imagine owner John Mara not moving on from general manager Joe Schoen, who has done nothing to upgrade an offense that has become one of the league’s worst in almost every category.
As for Lock himself, he’s lost both of his starts this season to a pair of woeful teams in the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, completing 51.1% of his attempts with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. It’s been a horror show.
31. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
LR: Not ranked
With Derek Carr now dealing with a concussion and a fractured left hand, the job will once again go to Rattler. The rookie is taking over a 5–8 outfit without the benefit of Taysom Hill, Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. In his first stint as a starter, Rattler played in three games and threw one touchdown against two interceptions.
30. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
LR: 30
Jones is going to be the starter the rest of the way in Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence on IR. The former first-round pick has been brutal thus far with two touchdowns and five interceptions while posting just a 29.3 quarterback rating. If Jacksonville doesn’t have a top-five pick come April, it will be a huge upset.
29. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Last Ranking: 32
Rush is doing an admirable job filling in for Dak Prescott, who is recovering from a season-ending hamstring injury. The veteran reserve has thrown for just 5.5 yards per attempt but has just three interceptions. It’s nothing special, but Rush also isn’t losing the game. For his talent level, that’s a victory.
28. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
LR: Not ranked
It was feared O’Connell was lost for the season Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers due to a leg injury. Despite being carted off and wearing an air cast, O’Connell might start Monday night. The second-year quarterback has been uneven, but he’s had good moments such as his 340-yard performance against the Chiefs on Black Friday.
27. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
LR: 27
Levis has had a real shot to prove he’s the quarterback of the future for Tennessee, and it hasn’t happened. Through 10 starts, he’s thrown just 12 touchdowns with nine interceptions, many of them ill-advised. He’s also averaging a meager 6.7 yards per attempt, ranking 27th in the NFL.
26. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
LR: 25
Winston is a unicorn in today’s NFL. While most quarterbacks are trying to minimize errors at all costs, Winston puts every possible outcome on the table, every play.
In six starts since Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles, Winston has endured three games of multiple interceptions, including a game against the Denver Broncos where he threw for more than 500 yards, but also had two pick-sixes.
He’s the ultimate gunslinger in the wrong era, destined to have played 50 years ago but trapped in an age of checkdowns and turnover ratios. He’s both able to throw his team into a game it has no business winning, and throwing them out of the same game in the blink of an eye.
He’s far from the best quarterback in football. He’s far from the best quarterback in Ohio. But, he’s incredibly entertaining.
25. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
LR: 26
Richardson has the most important game of his career coming up Sunday with a trip to Denver. If the Colts win, they’re a game out of the postseason picture with a key tiebreaker in hand. A loss, and Indianapolis is all but finished. After an excellent game against the New York Jets, Richardson has struggled the past two weeks, going a combined 23-of-52 for 281 passing yards.
24. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
LR: 29
Young has moved up over the past month, even though the Panthers are in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Over that span, he has thrown for an average of 250.6 yards per game with a total of three touchdowns against one interception. The biggest concern is his accuracy, which remains less than 60% in two of the three outings.
23. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
LR: 24
It’s tough to properly encapsulate Williams’s rookie season, but let’s try. He ranks 29th in EPA, sandwiched between Daniel Jones and Richardson. He’s also 29th in success rate. Yet, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception over his past seven games, despite being behind an awful offensive line. It hasn’t been great, but Williams could also be far worse.
22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
LR: 22
Maye has shown a ton of playmaking ability. The big issue has been turnovers, as Maye has thrown at least one interception over his past five games. Assuming the Patriots give him some legitimate weapons this offseason, it’ll be intriguing to see how Maye develops.
21. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
LR: 23
Nix has enjoyed a fine season under the watchful guise of Sean Payton. The Oregon product is only 23rd in EPA per play and 25th in success rate, but he’s avoiding mistakes and making the occasional great play. All told, he’s been a key part of Denver’s surprising 8–5 start and could be seeing postseason action as a rookie.
20. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
LR: 13
Cousins has been a disaster over the past month. During Atlanta’s current four-game losing streak, he’s thrown zero touchdowns against eight interceptions. Over that slide, the analytics show Cousins sitting at 30th in EPA per play, only better than Lock.
All this leads to an inevitable question … should the Falcons turn to first-round pick Michael Penix Jr., or stick with Cousins who still has three years and $135 million on his contract after this season?
While Penix might be better at this point, there’s also a distinct possibility he could be worse. And if Penix isn’t ready and Cousins has to come back in, now both guys lose confidence and the locker room knows the coaching staff doesn’t believe in either.
For now, the play is to stick with Cousins, but it’s a shaky at best.
19. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
LR: 19
Rodgers has been a disaster this year for the Jets, who are 3–10 and already eliminated from the playoffs. The 41-year-old looks his age, completing just 63.1% of his attempts for 6.5 yards per attempt. It’s a potentially sad ending for one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history.
18. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
LR: 18
Smith is having a very odd statistical season. He’s second in the NFL with 3,474 passing yards but only has 14 touchdown passes against 12 interceptions. His QBR of 53.7 ranks 22nd in the league. Analytically, he’s 19th in adjusted EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. A bizarre season that puts Smith in the middle of the rankings.
17. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
LR: 16
Wilson is doing everything Pittsburgh is asking of him. He’s throwing some deep balls, he’s not making big mistakes and he’s managed the Steelers to a 10–3 record and a two-game lead in the AFC North. Throwing for 254.9 yards per game, Wilson is keeping defenses honest and allowing Pittsburgh to remain in play for the AFC’s top seed.
16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
LR: 12
Murray has struggled over the past three games, which, unfortunately for the Cardinals, has coincided with the season essentially ending. Arizona is now 6–7 after being swept by the Seahawks in that aforementioned span, with Murray throwing five interceptions, including a pick-six. His legs have also been a nonfactor with 73 rushing yards in that time.
15. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
LR: 21
No team has been a better story than the Vikings, and Darnold exemplifies that. Signed this offseason as an eventual backup to rookie J.J. McCarthy, Darnold was thrust into a permanent role and has been great with 28 touchdown passes and 3,299 yards and 8.5 yards per attempt, both top-five numbers.
14. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
LR: 14
Hurts has not been statistically impressive, especially considering the amount of talent around him. He’s 20th in passing yardage and tied for 14th with 16 touchdown passes. However, Hurts is first in CPOE and 13th in EPA per play,
13. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
LR: 17
The Dolphins are on the edge of the playoff picture, and Tagovailoa is a big reason why. Despite missing a month after being concussed, the Hawaii native has been excellent with a league-best 73.8% completion rate while throwing 17 touchdowns against four interceptions.
12. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
LR: 8
Daniels fell four spots, but that’s not because he’s playing bad football. Some guys are just playing lights out. He remains the top rookie on this list by a wide margin as he’s still fourth-best in completion rate (69.6%) with 21 total touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Commanders are closing in on a playoff berth, and the Heisman winner is a huge reason why.
11. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
LR: 7
Purdy has dealt with adversity all season. His right arm has been laboring through injury, and he’s lost Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle at various points with ailments. Still, Purdy has the fifth-best EPA per play and ranks sixth in success rate. He’s not the reason San Francisco is 6–7.
10. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
LR: 15
Love has been inconsistent at times this year, throwing 11 interceptions in as many games. However, he’s eschewed them over the past three weeks, a span in which he has ranked second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. He’s playing at an elite level when the Packers need him to spearhead a playoff push.
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LR: 10
Mayfield and the Buccaneers endured a midseason, four-game losing streak and now have won three straight to take the lead in the NFC South. While nobody has benefitted more than Mayfield from a league-high yards after catch, he’s also elevating a passing attack that has Mike Evans and little else.
8. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
LR: 5
Stroud and his offensive line need to play better out of the bye week. The Texans are going to win the AFC South, but the offense has to be much improved. Since the start of Week 7, Stroud has exactly one game of a QBR over 55.0 and hasn’t had a three-touchdown game. In that stretch, Houston is 3–4 while permitting 25 sacks.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
LR: 6
Herbert is playing his role beautifully for the playoff-bound Chargers. He’s only thrown one interception, continues to extend plays with his elite pocket awareness and makes enough big throws to give a rather punchless passing attack some life. The numbers aren’t great, but his performance has been.
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
LR: 9
Goff has a chance to get into the MVP conversation Sunday when his Lions host the Bills in the CBS late window. Save for a hideous five-interception performance against the Texans, Goff has been near-perfect since Week 3, throwing 22 touchdowns against one interception. He has a real shot of throwing for 4,500 yards and 35 scores.
5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
LR: 11
Stafford has kept the Rams in the NFC West at 7–6 and played his best game of the year Sunday considering the circumstances.
Against the Bills, Stafford threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, consistently making very tough throws to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in intermediate and deep areas.
Stafford has thrown for 3,303 yards and 19 touchdowns this season despite being without Kupp and Nacua for long stretches. If the Rams find their way into the playoffs, they’ll be viewed as a dangerous team because of their offense, and specifically Stafford’s ability to make throws most quarterbacks wouldn’t think of attempting.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
LR: 2
Mahomes isn’t dropping because he’s playing poorly. He’s actually playing his best ball of the season, but three others are having phenomenal campaigns. As for Mahomes, he’s almost certainly going to have another 4,000-yard season with a chance at 30 touchdown passes (he needs 10 over the last four games). It hasn’t been pretty, but just like his team, the job gets done.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
LR: 1
Jackson deserves MVP consideration, but the Ravens being 8–5 probably sinks his hopes of a third award. He’s thrown for 29 touchdowns and only three interceptions while being on pace for his first 4,000-yard passing effort. Ultimately, he could easily wind up with more than 5,000 total yards, putting him in rare company.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
LR: 4
As previously mentioned, Allen is having an MVP season and he’s only gotten better in recent weeks. Since the start of Week 12, Allen has been leading the NFL in EPA per play, EPA + CPOE composite and success rate.
Additionally, Allen has thrown for six touchdowns, has run for another five and somehow caught a scoring strike that he also got credit for throwing. And all this has come against the Chiefs, Rams and 49ers, teams that are playing meaningful football right now.
With the Lions up next, Allen has a chance to cement his MVP case with a big win over Detroit, which hasn’t lost since Week 2.
1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
LR: 3
Burrow’s season is going to be largely forgotten outside of Cincinnati because the Bengals aren’t good. But the superstar is having his best year to date, leading the league with 3,706 yards and a whopping 33 touchdowns. He’s done everything possible to put Cincinnati into the playoffs, but it won’t happen barring a miracle.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Quarterback Rankings: Josh Allen Leads the MVP Race.
