After two weeks, a limited sample size of painted Jacoby Brissett and Geno Smith as top 10 NFL quarterbacks. After three weeks … well, they’re *both* still up there.
The Cleveland Browns’ fill-in quarterback continued to build his value after a proficient Thursday Night Football performance. The athleticism that made him a value-play 2016 third round pick for a New England Patriots team with both Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster was on display as Brissett avoided conflict in the pocket and threw absolute darts downfield.
Brissett finished his day with a 21-for-31, two touchdown, zero interception line in a 29-17 win over a division rival. He led four different scoring drives of at least 60 yards. And his night probably should have been even better!
absolute cannonshot off the chest pic.twitter.com/dkPFO6H95C
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 23, 2022
Brissett’s Browns are one Nick Chubb red zone kneel-down from their first 3-0 start since 1993. Granted, those games have come against the Panthers, Jets and Steelers, but the journeyman backup has given Cleveland exactly what it needs to survive Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.”
Smith, on the other hand, threw for 325 yards but lost to the Atlanta Falcons when his fourth-and-18 heave was intercepted with 90 seconds to play. That marred an otherwise solid performance — the third-highest yardage total of his career — that furthers the theory he’s a useful, if flawed, starting NFL quarterback.
But neither of these guys are elite. You know who is, per advanced stats? Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through three games in the 2022 NFL season. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 48 plays) that looks like this:
The size of each dot represents the amount of plays they’ve been a part of. A place in the top right means you’re above average in both EPA and CPOE. A place in the bottom left suggests things have gone horribly wrong.
Since there’s a big congestion in the middle, it’s a little tougher to legibly divide this week’s group into tiers. Fortunately, I’ll have a full explanation of who fits where below.
1
A growing class of elite QBs
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.209 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.207
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.196
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.194
5. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.187
Mahomes backslid in a loss to the Colts but retained his top spot. Tagovailoa and Lawrence each rose to the uppermost tier after big wins that established their teams as playoff contenders. Allen was undone by some bad injury luck and one uncharacteristically awful fourth down throw, but no one would argue he isn’t a top three quarterback this fall.
2
Extremely (and surprisingly) good
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.168 EPA+CPOE composite
7. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.148
Hurts boosted his value with a 330-plus yard, three touchdown performance. Smith remains a steady hand at the helm of a Seahawks craft trying to remain airborne despite missing most of its original hardware.
3
Huh ... really?
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.127 EPA+CPOE composite
9. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.123
A reminder this is a small sample size and that quarterbacks capable of doing more with less, like Smith above, are generally rewarded. For what it’s worth, these two rank ninth and 12th, respectively, in ESPN’s QBR metric.
4
A whole slew of veterans shaking off slow starts
10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.097 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.093
12. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.089
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.086
14. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders. 0.085
15. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals. 0.084
All of these players are working off unpleasant beginnings to 2022. Herbert’s playing through fractured rib cartilage and behind an offensive line missing its best player. Rodgers looked like his old self for two drives and then morphed into Mitch Trubisky late against the Buccaneers for all the short passes he threw on third-and-long.
Carr has yet to win a game. Burrow got hit too many times in Weeks 1 and 2 but his blocking came together to limit him to only two sacks in a win over the Jets Sunday. Stafford was butt in his season opener but has steadily improved, most recently winning a game where Ben Skowronek, Tyler Higbee and Brandon Powell constituted 60 percent of his passing offense.
Tannehill appears to be caught in his third straight year of decline after his 2019 breakthrough, but he seems to keep the offense on time and EPA loves him for that. I dunno, man.
5
The Denver Broncos gave up multiple first round picks to wind up here
16. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos. 0.076 EPA+CPOE composite
17. Mac Jones, New England Patriots. 0.070
18. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys. 0.069
Wilson’s offense has scored three touchdowns in three games. He belongs here.
6
There's plenty of time to turn this around, but advanced stats don't like them
19. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.053 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.048
21. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.048
22. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.037
23. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.036
Winston ranked 10th after Week 1, then suffered broken bones in his back and has thrown five interceptions in his last two games. Goff is doing enough to allow his playmakers to thrive. There’s value to his table-setting. Brady’s value was shaken by the fact he was missing his top three wideouts Sunday. Garoppolo, uh, did this.
never before did i think you could save 5 points by Orlovsky-ing yourself out the back of the end zone, but somehow Jimmy Garoppolo did just that pic.twitter.com/xVJaDQ0lmb
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 26, 2022
7
Doing enough to keep their teams on the fringes of the NFC playoffs
24. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.027 EPA+CPOE composite
25. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.023
26. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.019
Murray is typically a warrior early in the season. Through four games last fall his composite stood at 0.216 — fourth-best in the NFL. This year he doesn’t have DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup and is struggling. Cousins is an enigma whose best work comes at 1 p.m. ET. Jones is better than he was in 2021 but still appears to be the late-stage Chicago Bear version of Mitch Trubisky.
8
Mostly somehow worse than expected (not you, Joe Flacco)
27. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.010 EPA+CPOE composite
28. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.009
29. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.004
Ryan’s composite number in 2021, his final season as a Falcon and with Russell Gage as his top wideout, was a 0.071 — or roughly eight times better than it is currently. Again I ask; do the Colts have a quarterback curse? Trubisky clocked in at 0.098 in 2020, which scholars will note was the season he won the inaugural Nickelodeon Valuable Player award. It wasn’t unreasonable for the teams that acquired these two passers to expect more, yet here we are.
9
The numbers say they're actively hurting their teams
30. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, -0.021 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, -0.050
32. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.057
33. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers, -0.071
Mills went from “possible long term starter” to literally throwing his team’s shot at a win away in Chicago this week. Fields hasn’t been trusted to do much of anything and has yet to throw more than 17 passes in a game. Lance is about to fall off the list due to inactivity and it should be noted the bulk of his snaps came in a rainstorm (and he was very, very bad during them).
Mayfield is the only player on this list who was in the NFL before 2021. His total expected points added for the season to date are -11. Carolina’s net scoring differential, somehow, is +3.
