Last week, I saw modest receiving yard totals for Washington Commander wideouts and opted to place my faith in Carson Wentz. As Ron Rivera would be quick to tell you, this was a mistake.
Week 17 was our worst prop week of the season; a 2-6 campaign marred by the failures of the Commanders and New York Jets to move the ball through the air against underwhelming defenses. That dropped our season-long win percentage down to 66.1 — still pretty good, but not quite the absurd two-thirds success rate I’d hoped for after cruising through Week 16.
Unfortunately, rebuilding that record now butts up against the least predictable week of the NFL’s regular season. This weekend’s finale will be the backdrop to limited reps and rest days for a smattering of star players. Some will be held back to secure draft position. Others will be limited in order to rest up for the playoff games that actually matter.
As a result, I’ll be taking fewer props this week than usual. If you’re looking to spread cash around in order to make Sunday’s games more interesting there’s some value to a strategy that plugs WR3 types and their modest receiving yard totals, but even that’s a crapshoot when starting quarterbacks may not get more than a couple quarters of work.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns. Cleveland’s run defense is significantly worse than its pass defense. Pickett hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game in his NFL career. Granted, this would be a great place to hit that milestone, but expect the Steelers to continue their run-first approach.
Travis Etienne UNDER 62.5 rushing yards. As good as Etienne has been, the Titans have the second-stingiest defense when it comes to allowing rushing yards to opposing tailbacks (65 per game, 3.4 yards per carry). Etienne had 32 yards on 17 handoffs when these teams met in Week 14.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 16.5 rushing yards. The Browns have only allowed 133 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks all season. 59 of those came from Lamar Jackson. Pickett hasn’t rushed for more than 16 yards in any of his last four games.
Chigoziem Okonkwo OVER 2.5 receptions. He hit this last week with Joshua Dobbs despite only playing 25 percent of the Titans’ offensive snaps and has three-plus receptions in five of his last six games — including a six-catch, 45-yard performance the last time he saw the Jaguars.
Noah Gray OVER 13.5 receiving yards. This is a reasonable line for a typical Chiefs game. It looks even better when you consider Andy Reid could start pulling starters once he’s got the AFC’s top seed locked in with a big lead.
Last week: 2-6 (.250)
Season to date: 78-40 (.691)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 18
Here are the bets I like, then talked myself out of for various reasons. Despite another rough week, these are still cashing at a higher rate than my official plays.
- Treylon Burks OVER 3.5 receptions. Someone’s gotta catch passes for the Titans. Getting the ball to AJ Brown’s replacement would be a boon for both the short- and long-term in Nashville.
- Aaron Jones UNDER 62.5 rushing yards. Jones has only hit this number twice in the last six games. He had only nine carries for 25 yards the last time he saw the Lions. Detroit’s run defense is mostly forgettable, and while Jones is trending upward (and has traditionally been wonderful against his division rival), AJ Dillon’s presence leaves me doubting.
- Allen Lazard OVER 49.5 receiving yards. It’ll be a cold night in Wisconsin and Aaron Rodgers is likely to turn to his security blanket. That should mean plenty of targets for the sure-handed Lazard, who had 10 the last time these teams met. Add him as a touchdown scorer (+240) if you’re feeling it.
Last week: 2-3 (.400)
Season to date: 40-16 (.714)
