We missed last week’s bets thanks to Thanksgiving and the fact most player props don’t come out until late in the week. That could be a good thing; Week 11 was my worst week in a while, effectively ending a month-long heater. Now we get to see whether a week off stopped that virus of bad picks from spreading or merely gave it time to incubate.
Official plays are in bold.
Daniel Jones OVER 195.5 passing yards. Jones typically comes to play against the Commanders, averaging 230-plus passing yards with a 3:1 touchdown:interception ratio in his three years of games vs. Washington. The Commanders have a punishing front but their rush defense (fourth in DVOA) is significantly better than their pass D (14th) which suggests Brian Daboll is going to have to create some magic through the air to avoid a three-game losing streak in New York.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 247.5 passing yards. He hasn’t hit this number in four weeks, including games against the middling pass defenses of the Rams and Chargers. Miami will present plenty of opportunities for him to roast them downfield, but Garoppolo remains a short-target, yard-after-catch quarterback who depends heavily on his run game. He may be efficient, but he’s not prolific.
Mike White longest completion OVER 36.5 yards. The Vikings have given up receptions of 38-plus yards in four of their last five games. White had two such throws in Week 12 vs. the Chicago Bears.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 70.5 rushing yards. Barkley appears to be wearing down — which, since he plays for a team that gave him THIRTY-FIVE carries against the Texans, makes sense. He averaged 1.5 yards per handoff against the Lions’ 26th-ranked rushing defense in Week 11 and ran for 39 yards the following week against the Cowboys. Now he has to contend with Washington’s top five run D — a team he had 87 total rushing yards against in two 2021 matchups.
Garrett Wilson OVER 61.5 receiving yards. He was a consistent threat to hit this even with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 27th in DVOA.
Darius Slayton OVER 47.5 receiving yards. Yeah man, we’re leaning hard into the “New York’s gonna have to throw the ball” hypothesis. Slayton has had at least 58 receiving yards in each of his last five games.
Diontae Johnson UNDER 55.5 receiving yards. He’s only hit this total once in his last six games. Based on what we’ve seen from the formerly prolific wideout alongside Kenny Pickett, he’ll probably wind up with something like five catches for 50 yards.
Last week: 3-4 (.429)
Season to date: 52-28 (.650)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 13
This section finally crashed back to earth after months of unsustainable success — only Tyler Higbee lived up to his end of the bargain and just barely.
- Austin Hooper OVER 20.5 receiving yards. I really like modest tight end receiving totals, if you couldn’t tell. Ryan Tannehill will likely be throwing the ball often against a very good Eagles team.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 75.5 receiving yards. This is a high total, but St. Brown has been trending upward and we saw how he exploded to finish 2021.
- Jauan Jennings OVER 20.5 receiving yards. 49ers fans love Jennings and Jimmy Garoppolo’s coming around on him as well. He’s had at least four targets and 24 receiving yards in three of his last four games.
- Daniel Jones OVER 0.5 touchdown passes. Right, the whole “Giants gonna win” train of thought. Man, I’m in trouble if the Commanders absolutely smash Jones into pieces.
Last week: 1-3 (.250)
Season to date: 30-7 (.811)
