After three weeks of this NFL season, it’s safe to say that chaos rules the day.
A whopping 18 games have been decided by a field goal or less (!), and we haven’t even reached October. And after but a few games, we might know who’s really, really good (the Eagles and Bills for certain), but we’re not entirely sure as to who else comprises the contender matrix.
After they pummeled the darling Chargers, are the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence for real? What about the Packers, sans elite playmaking receivers, after a big win in Tampa Bay?
There’s a lot to sort through in the coming weeks and months of this NFL season. But right now, at this pace, we’re talking more about teams that are chasing Philadelphia rather than hanging with them.
Let’s try and sort through the madness as best as we can in the Week 4 edition of For The Win’s NFL power rankings for the 2022 season.
32
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 25
The Commanders probably aren’t the worst team in the league — that Week 1 win over the Jaguars is aging well! But they’ve fallen behind 22-0 and 24-0 the past two weeks, leaving Carson Wentz to jack up his stats Blake Bortles-style in the aftermath. This is your punishment for making Wentz mildly fantasy-relevant, Washington.
31
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 29
So far this year, we’ve learned that Geno Smith might actually be a capable starter … when he’s throwing to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Does this mean the Seahawks are actually in for a fun season? Well, no. But it’s nice to see Metcalf skying for lobs in the air again! In a Seattle rebuilding year, you’ll take young core players playing well all day if you’re Pete Carroll.
30
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 28
Davis Mills is regressing from a “playable quarterback” to an emerging problem; his fourth-quarter interception effectively lost a winnable game in Chicago. On the plus side, Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr. look like a proper foundation for this team’s defensive secondary going forward.
29
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 32
Matt Rhule bought himself some time with a big win over the Saints, but it still might not be enough. If Baker Mayfield continues to waste an otherwise talented offense (D.J. Moore, hello!), surprise-spoiler wins won’t hold much merit in Carolina.
28
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 22
Las Vegas is 0-3, with all three losses coming by six points or fewer. The Raiders have time to figure this out, but they’ve dug a hole in a competitive AFC, and the sides may be too steep to climb out of. Derek Carr’s red zone offense is a problem; he’s only turned 46 percent of his possessions inside an opponent’s 20-yard line into touchdowns.
27
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 24
Zach Wilson might finally come back from a knee injury this week, and boy, does this sad-sack J-E-T-S crew need him. Joe Flacco’s spot duty was admirable given the low expectations, but this iteration of the Jets was tailor-made for Wilson. Now he just has to make do with the New York hype. No pressure!
26
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 30
Arthur Smith finally involved Kyle Pitts in his game plan. It didn’t end in a win, but it was fun to watch. This is, more or less, the unofficial motto of the 2022 Atlanta Falcons.
25
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 26
A good defense? Check. A good running game? Check. A young developing quarterback in Justin Fields, currently without a paddle? Unfortunately for Chicago, also … check, and business as usual. If Fields (and his coaches) don’t pick it up soon, the 2-1 Bears are playing for draft picks, not January.
24
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 23
Russell Wilson arrived, and his offense has scored three touchdowns in three games. This defense is flying — its 12 points per game allowed is second-best in the league — but that may be a function of playing some truly unimpressive teams (Seahawks, Texans, 49ers). There’s a lot of work left to be done in Denver.
23
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 17
This team’s clear identity is “Please, Kyler Murray, do something special to save us, please!” and it’s not exactly a sustainable strategy. As the weeks wear on, it’s harder to see a reasonable justification for Kliff Kingsbury staying on as Arizona’s coach through the year.
22
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 31
The Colts got out-gained by the Chiefs Sunday, and Matt Ryan averaged a paltry six yards per pass — adding further evidence to the theory his days as a big play machine are far behind him. Still, a win’s a win, and this defense limited Kansas City to only 5.2 yards per play, giving their team the leverage to win ugly.
21
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 19
New England’s offensive struggles — as Mac Jones works through a sophomore slump with a worse supporting cast, and he might miss time due to injury — are understandable. A Bill Belichick defense that was easily humbled by a virtuoso Lamar Jackson is a bit more confusing. If the Patriots can’t score on or stop anyone, then the coming waves of criticism will not be kind to Belichick.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 21
Mitchell Trubisky got soundly out-played by Jacoby Brissett in Week 3. We are quickly approaching the point where the reward of throwing Kenny Pickett into the mix greatly exceeds the risk. This defense also only has two sacks without T.J. Watt in the lineup after a seven-sack debut vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
19
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 14
This New York squad has a revitalized Saquon Barkley and some solid young foundational talent on both sides of the ball. But at a certain point, it’s fair to wonder whether bully-ball and “Daniel Jones: Game Manager” can really take you that far. In a horrid NFC, it might get you a playoff spot. But are you a real contender? Absolutely not.
18
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 11
It took three weeks for head coach Dennis Allen to be earnestly asked whether or not he’s going to replace Jameis Winston at quarterback. Granted, that’s because his quarterback is playing through broken bones in his back, but still. Winston has thrown five interceptions against two touchdowns in his last two games. He had three interceptions in his seven-game stint as the team’s starter in 2021.
17
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 10
It’s easy to see why San Francisco wanted the now-injured Trey Lance to replace Jimmy Garoppolo this year. The same mistakes that a first-time starter like Lance might make because of inexperience, Garoppolo makes as an established veteran. Except Garoppolo doesn’t have the same upside, and it might now be another wasted year of contention in the Bay Area.
16
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 15
This defense is a problem; any time you get out-gunned by Kirk Cousins on a day where Justin Jefferson only has three catches is a red flag. Still, Jared Goff isn’t a detriment (even if he’s not much better than average), and this team is extremely fun to watch. Even if the Lions aren’t a playoff team, they’re nobody’s bye week.
15
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 18
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Derrick Henry had 25 touches and over 140 yards from scrimmage, and the Titans imposed their physical will on a team in a win, this time the Raiders. That’s how Tennessee will win games and climb out of an 0-2 hole — by simply giving the ball to Henry … a lot. Some teams should consider themselves so lucky to have such a plan in their back pocket.
14
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 27
Jacoby Brissett is exceeding expectations in his latest fill-in role. Through three games, he’s a top 10 quarterback in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) and is coming off his best performance, in terms of passer rating, since 2019. A defense that got pieced up by Joe “by-god” Flacco, however, is a different concern entirely. The three quarterbacks Cleveland has faced this year are Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, and Baker Mayfield; that pass defense still has plenty to prove.
13
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 20
Cooper Rush looks like a respectable backup and the Cowboys’ season is suddenly alive. Though, to stay afloat for a Dak Prescott return later in the year, they’ll have to survive upcoming road dates with the Rams and Eagles and a home battle with the feisty Lions. No one said coming back from the dead would be easy for Big D.
12
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 6
The Chargers could brush off their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs as a function, at least partially, of bad luck. That’s not the case after getting boat-raced by the Jaguars 38-10 in Week 3. A reconstructed defense struggled to contain Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and Zay Jones. The offense ran for 26 yards on 12 carries and scored a single touchdown. Is Jacksonville that good? Or is Los Angeles a more flawed team than we’d considered?
11
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 13
Ohhh, so that’s what it looks like when the Bengals play a relatively clean game. Joe Burrow cuts a bad defense up with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd, and Cincy harasses a hapless Joe Flacco. There are worse ways to finally put one in the victory column in September.
10
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 8
We shrugged, and Minnesota wound up here. The Vikings deserve credit for overcoming an early 14-0 deficit against the Lions, but their Week 3 win wasn’t especially encouraging. Kirk Cousins needed a big performance to wash away the taste of his awful Monday Night Football showing in Philly. Instead, he was just … fine.
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 4
Injuries and suspensions have ravaged what would certainly be a more promising Buccaneers squad. Without Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, and even Mike Evans, Tom Brady has struggled to gain traction at age 45. We have doubts these offensive struggles hold up in the late season for these reasons, but how ineffective the Brady-led attack has been thus far is something to monitor.
8
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 16
Jacksonville has played two AFC opponents and won each by at least 24 points. Doug Pederson isn’t reinventing the wheel with his offense; he’s just trusting his playmakers to make plays. His defense, however, has been a capital-P Problem and currently rates out as a top-three unit in terms of expected points allowed.
7
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 7
Sean McVay’s bunch shook off a humiliating opening night defeat with two solid NFC wins over the bottom-feeder Falcons and Cardinals. In the early season, confidence-builders matter for Super Bowl champs, too.
6
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 2
Kansas City squandered opportunities in a winnable game against an underwhelming Colts team. The Chiefs held Indianapolis to two offensive touchdowns — one on a four-yard drive following a muffed punt — but were undone by special teams mistakes and, notably, a dropped Travis Kelce pass in the end zone that wound up taking seven points off the board in a 20-17 loss. Everyone’s entitled to a bad day. If this becomes a trend, that’s when we worry.
5
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 12
Lamar Jackson bet on himself and looks like the best quarterback in football in the early goings — even better than his 2019 MVP campaign. The Ravens can beat anyone if Jackson continues to dice up and run through defenses like this.
4
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 9
This is exceedingly high for an offense that attempted just three passes 10-plus yards downfield in the second half of its win over Tampa Bay (total second-half points: 0). Green Bay’s offense is still struggling without Davante Adams. The defense is coming together, however, and Rashan Gary (one sack in every game to start 2022) has stepped into the spotlight as one of the league’s best edge rushers.
3
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 1
The Bills, and an incensed Ken Dorsey, shot themselves in the foot in Miami. It’s not often you see a team run 90 offensive plays and come away with just 19 points. But Buffalo’s offense will probably be fine. A suddenly injury-riddled defense that lost All-Pro Micah Hyde for the year is the real dent in a potential championship armor.
2
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 3
Miami battled back from three different deficits and overcame a punt booted squared into up-back Trent Sherfield’s butt to topple the heavy Super Bowl favorites in Week 3. The Bills were beset by awful luck, injury, and otherwise, but the Dolphins took that opportunity and ran with it, providing an inside track to an AFC title — and what is now a must-see rematch in Week 15 in Buffalo.
1
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 5
Through three games, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t run an offensive play when trailing in the second half. Simply put, Philadelphia has been so dominant their offense is in the ultimate cruise control. Howie Roseman has done it again.
