The Buffalo Bills can win Super Bowl 58.
I don’t write this as some massive revelation. Any team with Josh Allen at quarterback will be an understandably popular pick to contend for a championship, and that was the baseline expectation in Western New York this season, anyway.
I write this as a warning to the other AFC playoff teams.
Because the Bills have almost everything needed to play in Las Vegas this February. A superstar quarterback; a defense finally pulling its own weight despite a rash of injuries; more than enough playmakers thanks to the emergence of James Cook. But there’s a crucial rub. The Bills have everything except for a current spot in the postseason.
Even after humbling the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in back-to-back weeks, Buffalo is still on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. That is the product of an unfortunate midseason hole the Bills are slowly but surely digging themselves out of. Buffalo still, more than likely, needs to take care of business in a final stretch run featuring dates with the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins just to have a chance at taking this newfound momentum and unleashing it on an unsuspecting conference in January.
I like what the Bills have cooking. A lot.
I struggle to consider how any of the other extremely flawed AFC heavyweights can match up with a Bills team that suddenly understands it’s wise to feed the ball to non-Stefon Diggs skill players and that Josh Allen shouldn’t have to put on his red cape all the time. They might be the second-most complete team in football if they keep playing like this. The efficiency metrics (No. 2 and No. 10 in offensive and defensive DVOA, respectively) match up with the eye test.
But this entire conversation is moot if the Bills end up missing the postseason. So, once again, I’m warning contenders like the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. The absolute last thing you need is the Bills to find a way to play meaningful football this winter. I foresee a huge run coming if they can find a way to crash pro football’s big dance.
The Bills are a featured topic of conversation in For The Win’s Week 16 NFL power rankings as we start preparing for a wild postseason.
32
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 32
Carolina got a win over a quarterback obsessed with soul-crushing red-zone turnovers and an overhyped coach who doesn’t how to use his own players properly. Kudos to the Panthers for pulling it together, but this was far from a turning point for a team playing in front of a 95-percent-empty home stadium. This organization remains a huge mess. — Robert Zeglinski
31
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 29
First-half Bailey Zappe has 374 passing yards and four touchdowns in his last two games. Second-half Zappe has 74 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. On the bright side, that latter guy is helping ensure a top-three draft pick for the Pats. And if they keep losing, maybe even the top overall pick. — Christian D’Andrea
30
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 30
Kyler Murray hasn’t solidified his claim as Arizona’s franchise quarterback since returning from 2022’s torn ACL. While he’s been a useful scrambler, 2023 has been his worst season as a passer to date. His 78.4 passer rating is only a smidge higher than Mac Jones’ this fall. — CD
29
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 31
The ceiling finally caved in for Sam Howell. The cruel irony was that the (obvious) crisis of “Terry McLaurin isn’t producing enough” was actually related to the quality and savviness of his quarterback. It says everything that McLaurin found no trouble making an impact with Jacoby Brissett, even if most of it came in garbage time. — RZ
28
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 26
Well, Brandon Staley’s gone. That’s a start. The next man up just has to figure out how to fix an aging, frustrating offense and a defense that just got boat-raced by the … Las Vegas Raiders? Oh no. Oh no, no, no. — CD
27
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 28
Sunday was a quintessential Justin Fields performance. A few superhero-like plays only a handful of quarterbacks are capable of. A modest final passing line. Held the ball too long, taking a few questionable sacks. Horrific and rhythmless play-calling that limited his offense’s viability. A few backbreaking drops off of dime balls and in clutch, do-or-die situations. There is not much of a relevant future quarterback discussion for Chicago. Fields might yet develop into a difference-making starter down the line. But as it stands right now, he’s not worth not starting over under center if the Bears finish with the No. 1 overall pick. — RZ
26
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 23
The NFC South was there for the Falcons’ taking. All Atlanta needed was a quarterback capable of maximizing the multiple top 10 draft picks at his skill positions and protecting the ball. Turns out Desmond Ridder is not that guy and Arthur Smith is not the head coach capable of pushing him to greater heights. Owner Arthur Blank has said he isn’t going to make a knee-jerk reaction when it comes to cleaning house this offseason, but the Falcons would benefit from a reset. In the meantime, please enjoy this perfect summation of Atlanta’s 2023. — CD
25
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 25
Tennessee amassed only just over 200 yards of offense against the Houston Texans, with little to no explosive element downfield on offense present. A rookie quarterback-led team seeing a huge letdown after that remarkable comeback in Miami was inevitable. — RZ
24
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 24
The Tommy DeVito hype train had a shelf life — and the Green Bay Packers spent Week 15 retroactively devaluing his big performance last Monday. “Tommy Cutlets” faced the wrath of his own deficient offensive line en route to seven sacks in 41 dropbacks and a brief stint in the league’s concussion protocol. His Giants failed to find the end zone against the New Orleans Saints. — CD
23
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 27
The Raiders started their humiliation of the Chargers with seven offensive touchdowns in roughly 34 minutes of play. They piled on with another two defensive touchdowns in one of the largest scoring outputs in pro football history. This successful chaos was almost certainly mostly because Chargers players had finally given up on an overmatched coach they no longer believed in as a leader. But still, 63 points! Over a division rival! Congrats, Antonio Pierce. I’m sure Mark Davis was impressed. — RZ
22
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 22
How funny is Zach Wilson’s incredible Week 14 in contrast with his dog poop Week 15? Wilson was responsible for -13 expected points added AND HE DIDN’T EVEN PLAY TWO FULL QUARTERS. Every Jets dropback with Wilson in the lineup handed the Miami Dolphins, on average, 0.8 expected points. Incredible. — CD
21
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 19
George Pickens is giving up on plays more than zero times a game, which is bad. Mitchell Trubisky has somehow regressed from his disappointing days in Chicago. Pittsburgh’s supposed monstrous defense has allowed two backup quarterbacks and a rusty Kyler Murray to do just enough to eke out wins in consecutive weeks. With regular-season gauntlets left against the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens, Mike Tomlin is now in serious danger of sustaining his first-ever losing season. But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? — RZ
20
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 13
Jordan Love’s performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roughly sums up his entire 2023. There were times when he took points off the board with inaccurate throws and shuttered drives with frustrating play. And there were times he escaped pressure, created his own space behind the line of scrimmage, and fired a laser downfield through a rapidly closing window for clutch points. Green Bay needs so much more of the latter if it’s gonna compete for the NFC North title next year. — CD
19
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 18
Justin Jefferson’s full return ended in disappointment because that is the Vikings’ M.O. Nick Mullens would always get the vaunted Backup Quarterback With No Tape bump after his Bay Area days, but it just wasn’t enough against a complex defense like Cincinnati’s. The now-500. Vikings sit in sixth place in the NFC, set for a wild-card playoff date with the rival Lions. That postseason dream doesn’t feel like it’ll last much longer for Minnesota. — RZ
18
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 20
The Saints are a deeply uninteresting team. Just good enough to beat overwhelmed opponents and just bad enough to pose no threat to the rest of the NFC. Dennis Allen continues to prove he’s a useful defensive play-caller, but there’s only so much he can do with an offense whose ceiling is probably somewhere around the NFL’s 15th-best unit. — CD
17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 21
Baker Mayfield’s Redemption Tour is back on. Achieving the first-ever game with an opposing perfect passer rate at Lambeau Field feels like a monumental feat when considering the history of the stadium. It’s also a fantastic feather in the cap for a much-maligned quarterback trying to lead a Tampa Bay team that’s won three consecutive games amid a legitimate push toward the NFC South title. What a time to be alive. — RZ
16
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 9
Saturday night didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know about the Broncos. They have a talented defense that forces lots of takeaways when humming, but it’s primarily built to play with a lead and can’t sustain forever if pressed. They have a ground-control offense ill-equipped to hang with anyone with legitimate firepower. It’s been that way all season in Denver. This mix of passable complementary football is enough to earn a lower-tier AFC playoff seed but isn’t worth anything beyond that. — RZ
15
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 16
Seattle isn’t toast yet. Winning on Monday night pushed its playoff odds from 33 percent to 53 percent thanks to a rocky, underwhelming NFC. Holding the Philadelphia Eagles to 17 points was a statement from a depleted defense — and it gave Drew Lock (!) a chance to upend the defending NFC champions — CD
14
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 12
Trevor Lawrence had a chance to seize his potential and claim a spot among the NFL’s best quarterbacks in 2023. Despite flashes of brilliance, he’s been unable to do so. Week 15’s home loss to the Baltimore Ravens was a disaster across many levels, from his inefficient passing game (264 yards, one touchdown on 44 dropbacks) to his baffling fumbles (two) to the lack of game-management skills that turned a drive deep into Ravens territory late in the second quarter into zero points before halftime. These were issues that can’t be explained away by a sprained ankle. Lawrence has plenty of work left to be done before he’s elite. — CD
13
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 17
Is Gardner Minshew slowly building a case for the best backup quarterback of all time? For now, that conversation mainly features Jeff Hostetler (who started and won a Super Bowl), Nick Foles (who started and won a Super Bowl), and Frank Reich (who won two playoff games, author of the greatest playoff comeback in league history). But with how Minshew has flat-out cooked in Shane Steich’s vertical, RPO-based offense, the veteran passer is slowly earning that distinction. This would be yet another benefit of rewarding Steichen with Coach of the Year honors. — RZ
12
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 15
Los Angeles’ offense is averaging 427 yards per game in its last four contests, a number slightly goosed by an overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens, but is mostly the product of Matthew Stafford charging back to life. In that span, he’s thrown for 12 touchdowns against only one interception and recorded a 112.6 passer rating. His 0.251 expected points added (EPA) per play is the second-best number in the NFL. — CD
11
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 11
The Browns are a down-on-their-luck franchise known for horrific breaks in luck. The 2023 season is an example of Cleveland finally turning its fortunes around in some respect. Even with all the injuries and quarterback changes, the Browns have turned themselves into the ultimate cardiac cats with four wins after trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter this year. I mean, just think about how many other Browns teams would have watched a receiver like Darnell Mooney catch a miracle Hail Mary with the ball in his complete grasp. It’s wild heartbreakers like that aren’t actually happening to Cleveland anymore. — RZ
10
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 10
With C.J. Stroud out thanks to a concussion, the Texans proved they are not just a product of their bright young quarterback. DeMeco Ryans’ team has talent, is well-coached, and is disciplined to play within itself. Sunday’s win was not flashy, but throwing Devin Singletary and a relentless defense at opponents is a genuine recipe for potential coming playoff success. Now Houston just has to qualify for the said postseason. — RZ
9
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 14
Since taking over for an injured Joe Burrow, Jake Browning is 3-1 as a starter with two fourth-quarter comebacks. His 0.238 EPA/play ranks only behind Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford in that stretch. He has a 109.3 passer rating as a starter. I have no idea what this means for Burrow or how we should view him in the future, but it’s certainly raised my level of respect for Zac Taylor in Cincinnati. — CD
8
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 5
The Eagles’ weakness up the middle is a real problem against the run. Just look at how a Seattle offense helmed by Drew Lock exploited it. And a postseason gauntlet that could include the Lions (David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs) and 49ers (Christian McCaffrey) awaits. Oh yeah, and they gave up a 92-yard game-winning drive to Lock when it mattered most so … (long sound of air being sucked over clenched teeth). Well, good thing Matt Patricia is there. If anyone can fix things, it’s the guy who’s managed to underwhelm his way to the top for (checks notes) most of his high-level coaching career. — CD
7
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 8
Buffalo’s defense has finally found a way to overcome the devastating losses it suffered via injury, holding the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs to 27 total points in the last two weeks. That’s helped lighten the load for Josh Allen. And so has James Cook, who single-handedly out-gained seven different teams when it came to total offense in Week 15. — CD
6
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 4
Kansas City is fortunate its remaining schedule features just one game remaining against a winning team because, hoo boy, it got ugly in New England. Patrick Mahomes did his best to will his team over a franchise likely drafting a quarterback in the top two this April, but it felt like the Chiefs sweated this more than they would’ve hoped. Kadarius Toney continues to be a net negative and probably isn’t worth many snaps because of how volatile he is as a downfield pass target. Therein lies Patrick Mahomes’ continued frustration. — RZ
5
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 3
Was the dreaded (and traditional) Cowboys’ December collapse just delayed until a tough matchup in Western New York? Or are the suddenly red-hot Bills merely firing on all cylinders right now, and it wouldn’t have mattered who they played? These are questions Mike McCarthy will have to ask himself this week. Based on his precedent of usually bumbling away playoff games in the clutch, I’d guess he’s at least a little nervous. — RZ
4
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 7
Tyreek Hill’s longshot MVP campaign is likely over — barring a miracle run to 2,000 yards — but Week 15’s win proved Tua Tagovailoa can lead this Dolphins offense to points without him. That’s a big deal because Hill’s absence was a capital-p Problem in Week 14’s loss to the Titans. Even better, Tagovailoa may not need to play at his peak to win a playoff game if his defense keeps flying like this. Miami allowed just 1.9 yards per play in Sunday’s shutout … albeit against a pretty bad Jets team. — CD
3
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 6
After a bizarre midseason slump, the Lions returned to their roots. Meaning, they pounded the absolute hell out of Russell Wilson and an overinflated Broncos team. The manner in which Detroit did it — a smash-and-dash running game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and an active and energetic pass rush — inspires a lot of confidence. And to play like this under a national spotlight felt like a statement Dan Campbell’s group might be back at full throttle. That’s awful news for the other NFC superpowers. — RZ
2
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 2
Lamar Jackson remains a football unicorn, albeit one who occasionally uses his magical powers for mischief. See his scrambling right/throwing left interception vs. the Jaguars on Sunday night. His relatively modest numbers fail to convey just how devastating he can be on any given play. Or how baffling he can be for opposing defenders to figure out. — CD
1
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 1
The 49ers have scored 26 touchdowns in their six games since an October bye week. They have punted just 20 times. Seemingly every San Francisco possession ends in a score or in plus territory. It hasn’t been this Super Bowl or bust in the Bay Area since the days of Steve Young. — RZ
