The final third of an NFL season usually makes for built-in excitement. Desperate teams are chasing playoff spots. Legit Super Bowl contenders are jockeying for seeding. And seemingly every major game holds extra weight as the weather turns frigid. But after a wild Thanksgiving weekend bonanza of football, this season remains unpredictable.
Five separate three-win teams came out on top in Week 12. Meanwhile, five teams who started the week in this winter’s upcoming playoffs — including two division leaders — fell in respective heartbreakers, hitting both ends of the spectrum. But amidst all the rubble in the aftermath, a few squads stand tall through adversity.
There are the Cowboys, who have won four of five games since Dak Prescott’s return. Barring a grave misstep from the head coach, Dallas looks like a postseason force destined to continue gaining steam. Then you have the Eagles, who, amidst a host of unfortunate defensive injuries, have weathered the storm as the NFC’s unquestioned top seed. On the AFC side of the matter, Tua Tagovailoa’s self-assured Dolphins haven’t lost a game since late October or any games he’s started and finished.
As the quicksand of this NFL campaign starts to envelop teams not built to stay afloat, it’s clear some will be able to withstand any unforeseen pitfalls. And who’s left standing by that fateful second weekend of January is anyone’s best guess. The suspense is terrible. We hope it lasts.
Here are For The Win’s Week 13 power rankings for the 2022 NFL season — featuring those surging Cowboys — as we set the table for the next six weeks.
32
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 32
Could the University of Georgia’s football team beat the Texans? Well, no. But we’ve reached the stage in Houston’s 2022 season where there’s nothing interesting to say about the on-field product. At all. The Texans are probably just waiting out the string for Bryce Young. Come to think of it: We’re not actually sure if they have anyone who can block Jalen Carter.
31
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 31
Not only are things bad, but they may stay this way for a long time. The Broncos pushed all their chips to the middle of the table for Russell Wilson, a player who currently has a worse passer rating than both Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. On the plus side, his failure should ensure the Seahawks have three top-35 draft picks next spring.
30
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 29
With injuries to Darnell Mooney — one of the only Bears’ receivers who can get open — and Eddie Jackson — the Bears’ best defender — Chicago should be delighted if it can somehow Madden sim the rest of 2022. Such a finish might even benefit the Bears to get Justin Fields more help, as they sit near the top of April’s draft order.
29
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 20
How can the Saints fix their quarterback situation? Well, their 2023 first-round draft pick is headed to the Philadelphia Eagles, and they’re slated to have -$65 million in effective salary cap space in the offseason. So … they probably can’t.
28
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 30
Don’t look now, but the upstart Panthers have allowed just 38 points in the last three weeks. While Carolina continues to play Whac-A-Mole at quarterback, there’s a promising foundation to be excited about for the near future, especially on defense. Considering the adverse circumstances of Matt Rhule’s midseason firing, interim head coach Steve Wilks is doing a wonderful job. He could be coaching his way into the full-time title soon enough.
27
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 25
Injuries and a lack of depth have made the reigning champions one of the NFL’s least watchable teams. After seeing the ceiling of GM Les Snead’s star-heavy approach, we’re getting the floor in 2022.
26
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 26
Matt Ryan is under contract for 2023 and carries a dead cap hit of $18 million. Fortunately, the Colts are still slated to have more than $21 million in effective cap space to sign Jimmy Garoppolo before their triumphant return to 9-8 next fall.
25
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 24
Kliff Kingsbury is now 28-32-1 as an NFL head coach. Keeping his job will hinge on reversing a trend of late-season slides. After losing to the Chargers in a game the Cardinals trailed for only four-and-a-half minutes, that seems unlikely.
24
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 28
In a logjam of an AFC, the 4-7 Raiders have virtually no shot at qualifying for the postseason. But after Derek Carr’s emotional plea to his teammates, Las Vegas has started to respond, hitting the Broncos and Seahawks with decisive overtime haymakers in back-to-back weeks. There’s an impossible road riddled with tire spikes and potholes to January for the Silver and Black. But at least they’re showing some pride.
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 22
George Pickens is delightful and might be one of the more fun young playmakers the Steelers have had in a while. Though, it’s hard to be excited about their more important player, quarterback Kenny Pickett. The fellow 2022 rookie does nothing well but also isn’t particularly terrible at anything. Inspiring! At this stage of his iconic coaching career, it’s hard to believe Mike Tomlin would sit through another year of a passer who is flat-out afraid to test defenses downfield.
22
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 21
The Falcons must be kicking themselves that they signed Marcus Mariota as their stopgap QB. This could’ve been a year where they learned about young offensive weapons like Drake London. Instead, Mariota struggles to complete more than 15-16 passes weekly, and the Falcons routinely find themselves grounded. What’s even worse is that there’s no easy path to a signal-caller of the future. At 5-7, Atlanta is slated for the middle portion of the first round in April’s draft. A consummate football No Man’s Land in Atlanta.
21
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 23
At 4-8, this is a lost season for the Packers. Now it’s time to let Aaron Rodgers rest and give Jordan Love a chance to prove he’s capable of being an NFL starter — if not in Green Bay, then for a team willing to swing a deal with GM Brian Gutekunst.
20
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 27
Deshaun Watson — who just finished an 11-game suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as a pattern of “predatory behavior” — returns to take the Browns’ starting quarterback mantel this week. We’ll see what he has in store for Cleveland after now-former starter Jacoby Brissett led the Browns to their arguable best win of the season over Tom Brady’s Buccaneers.
19
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 19
Trevor Lawrence stared down an intimidating Baltimore defense in Week 12 and didn’t blink, rallying his Jags from a 19-10 deficit in the final six minutes in the finest game of his career to date. Jacksonville still has plenty of flaws, but the team is trending upward and may finally have the homegrown franchise quarterback it has searched for since … Byron Leftwich? Hoooo, boy, the list of Jaguars quarterback draft picks isn’t great.
18
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 18
On a pure schematic basis, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson continues to show why he’ll likely be one of the hotter head coaching candidates this offseason. With an excellent offensive front in tow, Johnson’s creativity with a multifaceted running game while finding ways to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown over and over cannot be overstated. As a result, the Lions are a feisty bunch that can score on anyone. Get this group a legit QB (sorry, Jared Goff), and they’re cooking with gas.
17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 14
Todd Bowles’ playcalling is a legitimate problem for the Buccaneers, who seem unable to minimize their weaknesses or play to their strengths. At least Tom Brady was able to send Jacoby Brissett back to the bench with a win. Nice guy, that Brady. Always looking out for his former backups.
16
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 15
Bill Belichick’s Patriots don’t do moral victories, but man … Mac Jones really needed that one. Even if the Vikings employ an 11-man turnstile masquerading as a pass defense, a 382-yard performance with tons of big boy throws is something to build on for the young QB during a struggle of a sophomore campaign. New England’s playoff chances in the AFC are still quite strong, thanks to a dynamite defense. It’ll probably need Jones to continue stepping up to finish the job.
15
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 17
Could Mike White have beaten the Patriots? It’s tough to extrapolate too much from White lighting up a bad Chicago Bears defense, but the veteran backup proved New York is a much better team with an average — or even below-average — quarterback at the helm. Next up is a winnable game against the Vikings’ aforementioned shaky secondary. After that, we’ll know more about White and the Jets’ postseason capabilities.
14
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 16
In a season of grimy bully ball across the league, the Commanders have become the foremost example. Washington doesn’t score a lot of points. They don’t have a franchise quarterback (as much as Taylor Heinicke might think he’s one). And they’re not a particularly explosive or efficient offense overall. But the sport’s arguably best defensive line, led by Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne, continues to flex its muscles on just about everybody. There are doubts this plodding/kind of chaotic style of play is sustainable, but it’s got D.C. in the current playoff picture. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
13
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 13
L.A.’s game-winning two-point conversion papered over the fact it was outgained by nearly a yard per play against a not-great Arizona Cardinals team. Justin Herbert, derided by talk show doofuses, remains a high-level talent hampered by blocking and play-calling. He’s going to need a lot of help from the players around him if he’s to rally the Chargers to the postseason.
12
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 12
Brian Daboll’s efforts to turn the Giants into a potential playoff team should be commended. This is a roster with a lot of promising talent, especially up front, but it’s still probably a year (if not two) ahead of schedule. Knowing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see New York gradually drop out of the playoff chase in the coming weeks. A challenging stretch run features two games each against the surging Commanders and heavyweight Eagles, the NFC’s current No. 2 seed in the Vikings, and a battle against the feisty Colts. That is not ideal. Don’t be surprised if the bottom falls out from under Big Blue.
11
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 11
The NFL’s middle ground is a grim place, which is how you end up with a Seattle team that just lost to Josh McDaniels (and, more relevantly, Josh Jacobs) scraping the top 10. Geno Smith remains efficient, but he couldn’t pull the trigger on two different potential game-winning drives to wrap up Week 12. That’s dropped the Seahawks out of the postseason race for now.
10
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 6
Lamar Jackson’s fiery tweets in the heat of the moment might be getting him in trouble with Ravens’ leadership, but this organization has bigger fish to fry. Each of Baltimore’s four losses this season has now occurred after the squad held a seemingly insurmountable lead for most of regulation. And with Lamar being forced to throw to Josh Oliver (?) and DeSean “He’s Still In The League?” Jackson, the Ravens’ issue closing games — especially on offense — seems like a pervasive problem they can’t fix until the spring.
9
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 10
Minnesota beat the Patriots in prime time (good) but allowed Mac Jones to throw for 382 yards against a beleaguered passing defense (bad). Kirk Cousins played well, but he’s still mired in what’s statistically been the least efficient season of his career as a full-time starter. The Vikings need him to be better if they’re going to make waves in the postseason, which is a foregone conclusion at this point.
8
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 7
Sunday’s defeat to the Bengals demonstrated that if Derrick Henry (17 carries, 38 yards) can’t establish his will on the ground, then the Titans are, once again, probably too limited to take seriously as a legitimate contender. But Mike Vrabel’s bunch routinely punches above its weight class on defense and still plays a physical brand of disciplined football. The Titans, fatal flaws and all, should scare some of the higher-flying AFC contenders if they can catch them on a bad day.
7
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 9
San Francisco’s defense hasn’t allowed a point in the second half for four straight games. That’s the perfect insurance should Jimmy Garoppolo be unable to sustain his newfound efficiency through the rest of the season.
6
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 8
Without Ja’Marr Chase for the last month, Joe Burrow has flourished, learning how to spread the wealth without one of the game’s premier playmakers. The Bengals’ talisman QB has played some of the best football of his career, book-ending a red-hot stretch by launching dimes to Tee Higgins and Some Guys around a ferocious Tennessee pass rush for a big-time road win. Now a healthy Chase is set to return, making Burrow and the reigning AFC champs suddenly look like they’re primed to defend their title.
5
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 4
Losing Von Miller for an extended stretch hurts. His presence helps take pressure off a secondary that’s been crushed by injuries this fall. Josh Allen’s recent struggles in the red zone — five interceptions from inside an opponent’s 20-yard line in his last five games — are certainly a problem. That said, the Bills rebounded from malaise in the middle of 2021 and have the chops to do it again, so they remain a top-five team.
4
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 5
At a certain point, the Cowboys will need to show they have other reliable offensive options outside of CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and Ezekiel Elliott’s best impression of Jerome Bettis in short yardage. But with a special defense led by potential Defensive Player of the Year Micah Parsons, Dak Prescott’s offense has a high margin for error. This is a mostly complete Dallas team that just has to avoid stepping on a rake again for a fruitful playoff run. TBD on whether they can avoid such trademark misfortune.
3
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 3
Cracks showed against the Green Bay Packers, but the Eagles quickly mortared them by rushing for a truly absurd 363 yards on Sunday night. Problems with the run defense have been quelled with veteran free-agent additions, and while that may not be a full-time fix, Jordan Davis’ eventual return from injury will be. Questions remain about whether Jalen Hurts’ passing will hold up in the postseason, but he continues to show that he can supplement any gaps there with a dynamic — and punishing — running game.
2
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 2
While they undoubtedly look like a contender, the Dolphins and a confident Tua Tagovailoa have been beating up on some pumpkins of late. Miami hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since they upended the rival Bills all the way back in Week 3. A visit to play against the 49ers’ elite defense this Sunday should be a good litmus test for a dynamic squad that hasn’t been tested in a while.
1
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 1
Patrick Mahomes’ no-look end zone interception made Week 12 a little more dramatic than it needed to be, but the Chiefs took care of business against the desiccated husk of the reigning NFL champions. Ensuring the AFC runs through Arrowhead Stadium and its negative temperatures come playoff season would be a significant boost to Kansas City’s quest for a fifth-straight conference title game appearance.
