The NFL playoff picture completely changed with the cancellation of last Monday’s Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals game.
At least that’s the case in the AFC.
With Week 18 starting on Saturday, it’s time to look at the updated playoff scenarios as the postseason is set to begin after that.
There are some seeds — the top one in the NFC, for one — and the final Wild Card berths in both conferences that have yet to be decided. So we’ve got to break down what each of these teams needs to do to stay in their respective spots, or move up, or move into a playoff spot entirely.
So here are the playoff scenarios for Week 18:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
Let’s start in the AFC. The Chiefs currently have the top seed.
A win over the Raiders clinches it, but if they lose and the Bills to lose to the Patriots, they also get the No. 1 seed.
Given the adjustments made by the league office, they’re not fully guaranteed home field advantage for the entire AFC playoffs (see below).
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
A win and a Chiefs loss and they get the No. 1 seed.
If the Chiefs end up with the top seed and the Bills end up playing them in the AFC title game, they could play at a neutral site due to the league’s adjusted rules after Bills-Bengals was declared no contest:
A summary of the proposal for the AFC Championship Game:
14-3 Chiefs vs. 13-3 Bills: neutral site
13-4 Chiefs vs. 12-4 Bills: neutral site
13-4 Chiefs vs. 12-4 Bengals: neutral siteWeek 18 has no bearing on a possible Bills-Bengals championship game: that would be in Buffalo.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 6, 2023
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
The cancellation of their Week 17 game means they’re the AFC North champions, but that neutral site AFC title game is in play if they beat the Ravens and the Bills and Chiefs lose.
But a loss to the Ravens and the Chargers beat the Broncos would mean Baltimore gets in as the No. 6 seed. And THAT would mean a coin flip to decide WHERE the Ravens and Bengals play next week in the Wild Card round.
Cincy will be the AFC North champion, but won't have the benefits of being the champ (with a home playoff game), but will have a harder schedule next year, and potentially a later draft pick. It's not perfect, assume they are not pleased. Alas. https://t.co/eRexICjEiH
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 6, 2023
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
They’ll have to beat or tie the Titans this Saturday to win the AFC South.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
They’ve clinched a playoff spot. Their Week 18 isn’t completely meaningless with the Ravens on their tails, but they’ll lock in the No. 5 seed if they beat the Broncos next week.
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Another team that has clinched a spot. We’ll see what seed they get after this week’s results.
7. New England Patriots (8-8)
OK, this is where it gets complicated.
The Patriots can grab the final AFC spot with a win over the Bills. They can also do it if both the Dolphins lose to the Jets and if the Steelers lose to the Browns.
The Dolphins are in with a win and a Patriots loss.
The Steelers are in if they beat the Browns and BOTH the Dolphins and Pats lose.
And the Jaguars are actually still a possible No. 7 seed if they lose to the Titans. But they’d need all of the Pats, Steelers and Dolphins to lose, too.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
They’re suddenly facing a challenge to the top seed in the NFC.
A win over the Giants and they’re No. 1. But if the Niners AND Cowboys lose their games, they’re also the top seed. A win or a Cowboys loss means they at least win the NFC East.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
They can grab the No. 1 seed by beating the Cardinals, but they also need the Eagles to lose.
3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
They’re currently locked into the No. 3 seed, but that could change next week.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
They’ve won the NFC South and will stay as the No. 4 seed.
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
A win over the Commanders and an Eagles loss means they win the NFC East. Add those results to a Niners loss to the Cardinals and they can get both the NFC East AND the top seed in the conference.
6. New York Giants (9-6-1)
They’ve clinched the No. 6 seed as a Wild Card.
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Another complicated scenario.
The Seahawks can clinch this spot by beating the Rams in Week 18 and the Packers losing to the Lions.
The Packers win? They’re in. That’s it.
The Lions can get the No. 7 seed with a win over the Packers, but they also need the Seahawks to lose their game.
