As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.
Game of the week
Cleveland Browns (9-5) v Houston Texans (8-6)
Story of the season: The postseason is coming up fast as two AFC contenders meet on Christmas Eve with huge ramifications for their playoff chances while the quarterback conveyor belt whirs frantically in the background throwing out sub-plots with abandon. Joe Flacco’s Cleveland coda continues apace after a fraught comeback hauled the Browns to nine wins, another at Houston and they are all but in the hat come January. Meanwhile, DeMeco Ryans continues to shine in Houston. The head coach’s gutsy call to back the 35-year-old Case Keenum to win on his first start in two years paid off big against Tennessee, while the Browns can claim an assist for inspiring Ryans with Flacco’s revival. Houston are outside looking in as the eighth seed but another win will see them rise into the hallowed top seven.
What the Browns need to do to win: Focus has to remain on protecting Flacco, aged 39 next month. Any slip could lead to catastrophe but the big men have done a superb job of protecting the quarterback work so far. Flacco is unlocking David Njoku’s potential: the tight end has almost 200 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games compared to 40 yards per game before that. Keep it up. Defensively the backfield must keep swarming to prey on mistakes from Keenum. The league’s best passing defense – giving up only 158.9 yards per game – can forge an easy advantage by stifling this avenue. Myles Garrett and the pass rush unloading on the backup will also lead to errors or at worst a ton of lost yardage.
What the Texans need to do to win: CJ Stroud is set to miss another week so Keenum maintaining his level from the overtime victory is paramount. The wideout Nico Collins’ prospects of returning look better as he returned to practice in a limited fashion, having his talent on the field would be a difference maker. Where the Texans can make gains is on the ground. The running back Devin Singletary’s efficiency was important to victory last week, they need to run the ball despite having an explosive air attack to keep Cleveland guessing. Stay aggressive, don’t call plays to try and limit mistakes; the Browns are brilliant but on the road they concede an average of 30 points per game compared to 13 at home. On defense, blitzing Flacco and putting the clamps on running back Jerome Ford could lead to turnovers from the former should he unleash 40 or more throws for a third game in succession.
Playoff race risers and fallers
Rising: Baker Mayfield
Playoff spots have begun to be eaten up by those sitting in front as, other than the high-flying 49ers after week 14, the Cowboys and Eagles joined them in NFC and the Ravens locked their place in the AFC side of the draw. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield’s historic afternoon at Lambeau Field puts his stock as high as it has been since a playoff win back in 2020. He has found a home in Florida while clicking with the talented roster around him. The box score in the win over Green Bay was impressive, 381 yards and four touchdowns, but the showcase of his arm talent was even better. According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield threw a touchdown to all four levels of the field for the third time in his career, the most by any quarterback since 2016. The offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, has a signal caller with the confidence of a franchise leader and is showing he can cook up a game script that can maximise Mayfield’s strengths while minimising his issues with accuracy. The 19-yard strike to Mike Evans showcased how Canales had the beating of Green Bay by using Chris Godwin’s route to shift the safety, uncovering Evans. They have a hold on the NFC South at just the right moment.
Falling: Jacksonville Jaguars
Everything is coming undone for the Jacksonville Jaguars, even in the front office. Last week ESPN reported a former employee faces a maximum of 30 years in prison after pleading guilty to stealing more than $22m from the franchise over four years. Amit Patel, using his position as manager of the team’s virtual credit cards, hired private jets, joined a country club and bought a condo in Florida while sadly “99% of the misappropriated funds” were used to chase his losses as he struggled with a “serious gambling addiction”. Another strike against the NFL’s gambling policy too then as they failed to spot a club employee, prohibited from betting on any sport, frequently taking part in fantasy tournaments with buy-ins of $24,000 according to ESPN’s sources ... the definition of hiding in plain sight. On field, the injury bug has bitten another quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. CJ Beathard has plenty of inspiration to draw on from backups succeeding but wide receivers, or lack thereof, are arguably a bigger problem. There is no Christian Kirk to call on, Zay Jones is questionable to play and Calvin Ridley has started to flatline so it is tough to see how a second-string quarterback will move the chains with any gusto against Tampa Bay as the Colts and Texans attempt to seize control of the AFC South. Jacksonville’s running game is also going backwards: Travis Etienne has carried the ball nine more times so far than last season and has 288 fewer total yards. Lawrence gave his offensive line golf carts for Christmas, a new set of irons from Etienne, unlikely.
Race for No 1 pick
You asked for miracles Theo, I give you the N-F-C South. The Carolina Panthers finally delivered a victory as painful to a Chicago fan as extended seasonal Die Hard references thanks to sharing a division with the Atlanta Falcons. A promising day from Bryce Young, whose 90-yard drive in the pouring rain sealed a 9-7 victory and a 2-11 record, has the potential to shift the draft order significantly. Playing without the likelihood of being replaced next year may help the quarterback continue to rewrite a rookie year to forget with a strong finish against Green Bay, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. All are winnable but the Packers and Jaguars the more probable owing to more acute struggles than Carolina’s: the dread of expecting to succeed but actually stubbing your toe. Victory over either could allow the Patriots and Cardinals, who wait in the wings at 3-11, to overtake the Panthers. Interim head coach, Chris Tabor, also has some skin in the game as a former Chicago employee now working on his resume for the full-time position in Carolina. The pleasure of sticking it to your former boss by winning will surely be immense, but, is this the way anyone actually thinks? Sadly, probably not. However, if Tabor’s post-victory press conference consists of an elaborate game of Simon says delivered in a suspiciously hammy German accent, we stand corrected.
