The NFL playoff picture is becoming more clear.
Two AFC teams have already clinched a playoff spot, with one of those teams already clinching their division.
The top seven teams in the AFC almost seem locked. The Colts (6-7) are eighth in the AFC but are two games back from the seventh-seed Broncos (8-5) and division-rival Houston Texans (8-5) with just four games left. Making the postseason will be challenging for the Colts and the Dolphins (5-7).
The NFC side is a bit more uncertain, with two divisions still in play. The NFC South and NFC West still have teams in play to win the division. Atlanta (6-6) is currently fourth in the NFC but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) are eighth in the NFC. If the Bucs leap over Atlanta in the division, the Falcons would be in danger of missing the playoffs. Seattle is third in the NFC (7-5) and first in the NFC West. However, the Cardinals (6-6) are ninth and Rams (6-6) are 10th in the NFC. If either the Cardinals or Rams leap over Seattle in the division, the Seahawks would be in jeopardy of missing the postseason. San Francisco is 5-7 and still in play to win the NFC West but it will be challenging.
While anything can happen in an elimination playoff game, as we get into the final month of the NFL season, it is becoming more clear which teams can make a deep playoff push.
Below, we separate the contenders from the pretenders regarding the NFL playoff picture.
AFC Playoff Picture: Separating The Contenders From The Pretenders
Two AFC teams have already clinched a playoff spot, with one of those teams already clinching their division.
Contenders are teams that can go far in the playoffs and possibly win the Super Bowl. Pretenders are teams that will not go far in the playoffs.
Below, we separate the contenders from the pretenders in the AFC.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
The reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champs have already clinched a playoff spot.
They have won nine games by seven points or less.
Luck has benefitted the Chiefs in a few games this season, leading to them being 11-1.
Still, they have the best quarterback and head coach in the league, making them a major threat to win the Super Bowl for a third straight year.
The offense ranks 11th in points per game, 12th in passing yards per game, and 19th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks eighth in points allowed per game, 23rd in passing yards allowed per game, and third in rushing yards allowed per game.
As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes and Andy Reid, they will remain a threat to win the Super Bowl.
Chiefs: Contenders
2. Buffalo Bills (10-2)
The Buffalo Bills are the first team in the league to clinch their division already.
Buffalo also gave the Chiefs their only loss of the season and are hoping KC cedes the number one spot in the AFC.
Josh Allen is the favorite to win the MVP award.
The offense ranks second in points per game, 17th in passing yards per game, and eighth in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks tied for sixth in points allowed per game, eighth in passing yards allowed per game, and 18th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Buffalo is playing like the best team in the AFC and is a major Super Bowl contender.
Bills: Contenders
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Before the season began, nobody expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to be first place in the AFC North with five weeks left of the regular season.
Mike Tomlin made the bold move to start Russell Wilson after Justin Fields began the year 4-2. Wilson has gone 5-1 in his six starts and the offense has looked much better with Wilson under center.
The offense ranks 10th in points per game, 20th in passing yards per game, and ninth in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks sixth in points allowed per game, 19th in passing yards allowed per game, and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game.
Pittsburgh has a good defense, a good run game, and a veteran Super Bowl winning QB who is playing well. This is a recipe for success and they can compete with the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and any other team in the AFC.
Steelers: Contenders
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
Houston is 8-5 but they have not been as good as people thought before the season. They are in the easiest division in the AFC.
The offense ranks 12th in points per game, 15th in passing yards per game, and 16th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks 13th in points allowed per game, seventh in passing yards allowed per game, and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game.
C.J. Stroud has struggled on the road this season. Considering they will likely finish fourth in the AFC and will have to play on the road in the Divisional round if they can win their wild-card game, they will not go further than the Divisional round.
Texans: Pretenders
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Los Angeles is one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won five of their last six games.
Justin Herbert is protecting the ball this season, throwing just one interception.
The offense ranks 18th in points per game, 24th in passing yards per game, and 18th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks first in points allowed per game, 10th in passing yards allowed per game, and 14th in rushing yards allowed per game.
The defense has been why the Chargers have been hot, as they have allowed the fewest points per game this season.
Despite a top notch defense, their offense has been less than average.
Los Angeles is much better than last year but they are still not a real threat to make it out of the AFC.
Chargers: Pretenders
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
The Baltimore Ravens have lost two of their last three games. Still, they are 8-5 and sixth in the AFC. They defeated the Chargers this season and could move up to fifth in the AFC if they end up with the same record as LA.
With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, this team can beat any team in the league.
The offense ranks third in points per game, third in passing yards per game, and second in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks 23rd in points allowed per game, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, and second in rushing yards allowed per game.
Baltimore is the best team that is currently in a wild-card spot and remains one of the best teams in the league.
The Ravens can beat anyone in the league.
Ravens: Contenders
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)
One of the biggest surprises this year has been the Denver Broncos.
Not many people thought Denver would be 8-5 in December and seventh in the AFC.
Bo Nix has improved each week and is the second favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award.
The offense ranks 13th in points per game, 21st in passing yards per game, and 21st in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks third in points allowed per game, tied for 20th in passing yards allowed per game, and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game.
Denver’s defense has improved this year. Still, with a rookie QB, it will be challenging for Denver to win a road playoff game.
Broncos: Pretenders
Teams Outside A Playoff Spot But Can Still Get In
Indianapolis Colts (6-7): Pretenders – Not good enough to compete with the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, or Ravens. Can’t trust Anthony Richardson in the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins (5-7): Pretenders – Always fall short in big games and against good teams. Cannot win on the road in cold weather, which would be the case against the Chiefs, Bills, or Steelers in the playoffs.
NFC Playoff Picture: Separating The Contenders From The Pretenders
The NFC side is a bit more uncertain, with two divisions still in play. The NFC South and NFC West still have teams in play to win the division.
Contenders are teams that can go far in the playoffs and possibly win the Super Bowl. Pretenders are teams that will not go far in the playoffs.
Below, we separate the contenders from the pretenders in the NFC.
1. Detroit Lions (11-1)
The Detroit Lions are not just the best team in the NFC but in the league.
They can win in so many ways. Detroit can win a shootout or a low-scoring game. They have the best offensive line in the league, making it so much easier for Goff and their run game.
The offense ranks first in points per game, fifth in passing yards per game, and fourth in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks second in points allowed per game, 25th in passing yards allowed per game, and fifth in rushing yards allowed per game.
Despite losing Aidan Hutchinson early in the season, they are still playing at a high level on defense.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the best running back duo in the league.
However, one challenge will present. If Detroit does not finish first in the NFC and has to travel to Philly on the road in the playoffs, Goff does not have a history of performing well on the road and in bad weather.
Still, Detroit is the favorite to win the Super Bowl and is the best team in the NFL.
Lions: Contenders
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
This is an extremely talented roster, filled with talent in most positions.
It is difficult to find a weakness in their roster.
Saquon Barkley has added an element to this offense that has made it one of the scariest offenses in the league.
The offense ranks seventh in points per game, 28th in passing yards per game, and first in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks fourth in points allowed per game, third in passing yards allowed per game, and seventh in rushing yards allowed per game.
Another big reason for their success is how improved their defense has been this year.
Philadelphia matches up with any team well and can win any kind of game. Philadelphia can go into Detroit and defeat them while it will be more difficult for the Lions to beat Philly on the road. If the Eagles can finish first in the NFC and have home-field advantage in the postseason, they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Eagles: Contenders
3. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
While the Seahawks are third in the NFC, at 7-5, they are not a lock to win the division or make the playoffs. If they don’t win the division, it is more likely they won’t make the playoffs.
Seattle has a decent team but they don’t strike fear in anyone like the Lions and Eagles do.
The offense ranks 15th in points per game, second in passing yards per game, and 28th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks 12th in points allowed per game, 12th in passing yards allowed per game, and 21st in rushing yards allowed per game.
If the playoff seeds remain the same, they’d be facing the Packers in the wild-card round and would be underdogs. Even if they face the Vikings in the wild-card round, they’d likely be underdogs, despite playing at home. The only hope for Seattle to be favored to win in the first round would be if they face the Commanders.
They are not good enough to defeat the Lions or Eagles.
Seahawks: Pretenders
4. Atalanta Falcons (6-6)
The Atlanta Falcons have lost three straight games. It looked like they’d cruise through the NFC South and easily win the division but not anymore.
Kirk Cousins has played horribly in the last three games. He has not thrown a TD in three straight games.
The offense ranks 19th in points per game, fourth in passing yards per game, and 14th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks 22nd in points allowed per game, 22nd in passing yards allowed per game, and 17th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Atlanta will likely face the Vikings or Packers in the wild-card round if they win the division and would be underdogs against both teams.
Falcons: Pretenders
5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the biggest surprises this year. Being 10-2 and fifth in the NFC is something not many predicted before the season.
Sam Darnold has done a good job. Kevin O’Connell deserves a ton of credit and should receive more consideration for Coach of the Year.
Justin Jefferson is an elite WR and the Vikings’ defense attacks opposing QBs and stops the run.
The offense ranks ninth in points per game, 10th in passing yards per game, and 17th in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks fifth in points allowed per game, 28th in passing yards allowed per game, and first in rushing yards allowed per game.
It will be more challenging for the Vikings to go to Philly and win than play in Detroit. They are familiar with the Lions and it will be a dome setting, making it easier for their offense and Sam Darnold. Going to Philly in the cold and possibly poor weather will present a bigger challenge for the offense.
Still, Minnesota is good enough to compete with the Lions and Eagles in the playoffs.
Vikings: Contenders
6. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
The Green Bay Packers are 9-3 and have won three straight and seven of their last eight games.
Jordan Love has one of the best arms in the league but it sometimes comes back and bites him. He has 11 interceptions in 10 games played. Green Bay has been able to overcome his interceptions but come playoff time, it will be very difficult to. Love needs to do a better job not turning the ball over.
The offense ranks eighth in points per game, eighth in passing yards per game, and fifth in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks ninth in points allowed per game, 17th in passing yards allowed per game, and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game.
Green Bay is top 10 in five of the six categories. Matt LaFleur is a very good head coach.
This Packers team can compete with the Lions and Eagles. Jordan Love will need to reduce the interceptions but this is a talented Packers roster that can compete with any team.
Packers: Contenders
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)
The Washington Commanders have been one of the biggest surprises this season. At 8-5 and seventh in the NFC, the Commanders have exceeded all expectations.
Jayden Daniels is having an excellent rookie campaign and is the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
The offense ranks fourth in points per game, 16th in passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game.
Their defense ranks 16th in points allowed per game, fifth in passing yards allowed per game, and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game.
This Washington team is exciting but they are young. It is challenging for rookie QBs to make a deep playoff push.
In a year or two, the Commanders could be a top team in the NFC but they are not a threat to make a deep playoff push this season.
Commanders: Pretenders
Teams Outside A Playoff Spot But Can Still Get In
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretenders – Losing Chris Godwin hurts. Not good enough to make a deep playoff push.
Arizona Cardinals: Pretenders – Talented but not enough to make a deep playoff push against some of the top teams in the NFC.
Los Angeles Rams: Contenders – Very good QB, two stud WRs, and a good running game. Can keep up offensively with the Lions, Eagles, and Packers. Sean McVay is a Super Bowl winning head coach and gives the Rams a coaching edge over most coaches in the league.
San Francisco 49ers: Pretenders – Too banged up and have not shown they can make a playoff push.
