We’re getting into that time of the NFL regular season when MVP cases are made and lost.
Only a week out from Thanksgiving, the stat lines of the best are starting to take shape. The résumés are there, with big wins and ugly losses littered across the NFL landscape. And while every player is eligible for the award, a quarterback has won the honor each time over the past decade.
In fact, the only other positions to ever win the MVP award are running back, defensive tackle, linebacker and … kicker. Another story for another day. But no nonoffensive player has been named MVP since the 1986 season, and nobody is challenging to seriously break that streak this year.
So, who are the top five contenders? Let’s look at four quarterbacks and a running back, and know we’re on the right side of voting history.
5. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
If there’s going to be a nonquarterback who wins the award, Barkley is probably it. The Eagles signed Barkley this offseason to a four-year, $48 million deal and look like geniuses for it. The former New York Giants star has rushed for 1,137 yards on 5.8 yards per carry while also catching 23 passes for 210 yards and 10 total touchdowns. All told, Barkley has a league-best 1,347 yards from scrimmage.
With the Eagles at 8–2 and leading the NFC East, Barkley is the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year but should merit MVP discussion. If he finishes strong over the last seven weeks and challenges the 2,000-yard barrier, he could get votes to be the first MVP in his position since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
4. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
There’s an argument to be made that Goff destroyed any hope of winning the MVP award when he threw five interceptions against the Houston Texans a couple of weeks back. However, Goff is captaining arguably the best team in the NFL with the Lions sitting at 9–1 largely because of an offense that has twice scored more than 50 points in victory.
All told, Goff’s numbers are solid. He’s 10th in the NFL with 2,492 passing yards, fourth with 20 passing touchdowns and tops with 9.2 yards per attempt. If Detroit ends up being the league’s best team and earns the NFC’s top seed, Goff is going to get consideration as he did in 2018 as a member of the Los Angeles Rams.
3. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
If the Bengals could figure out a way to close games, Burrow would be the runaway pick for MVP. Through 11 games, Cincinnati is 4–7 and yet Burrow has been incredible, leading the NFL with 27 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. The former No. 1 pick has also thrown for 3,028 yards, leading the league by more than 150 yards.
While Burrow has virtually no shot to win the award if he’s on a team that misses the playoffs, there’s still a glimmer of hope. And if the Bengals rally from their current plight to the postseason, it’ll almost certainly be because Burrow puts on a final charge for the ages.
2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen’s candidacy got a major boost in Week 11. On Sunday, the Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in a nationally televised CBS game, with Allen’s heroic 26-yard scamper clinching the victory. The game knocked Kansas City from the ranks of unbeaten and showcased all Allen can do, especially with tight end Dalton Kincaid and receiver Keon Coleman sidelined.
Over the next three games, Allen’s bid for MVP will likely either be shattered or cemented. The Bills have a bye this weekend before hosting the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night in Week 13. Then it’s a two-game trip to face the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. Those games will draw huge ratings and be heavily scrutinized.
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson has to be considered the frontrunner, even though the Ravens are currently the AFC’s sixth seed after losing last weekend to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson has been magnificent this year, putting forth his best statistical campaign to date. The two-time NFL MVP has thrown for 9.0 yards per attempt, 25 touchdowns and only three interceptions while rushing for 584 yards to lead all quarterbacks.
Analytically, Jackson is once again beloved by the metrics. The veteran ranks first in EPA per play and success rate. He’s carrying Baltimore more than ever as well, considering the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the league and a receiving corps almost completely reliant on Zay Flowers.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL MVP Watch 2024: Ranking the Top Five Candidates for the Award.
