Below is a list of 11 players, broken up by favorites, sleepers and long shots, of which I’m almost 100% positive next season’s MVP will be chosen from.
Why am I so confident? Because eight of the 11 players are some of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and quarterbacks almost always win the award — try 14 of the last 15 years.
Of course the possibility exists that a quarterback not listed below emerges from the crop to claim the award, but I’m not betting on it. The players below are in situations ready-made for MVP campaigns. It all comes down to which can best make it happen.
This isn’t me picking an MVP (I like Joe Burrow), this is me laying out why each guy will and won’t win the award. Odds are from Tipico Sportsbook.
Favorites
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills +600
Why he will win: His continued trajectory from last season catapults him into “best quarterback in the league” status, and the Bills live up to the hype of Super Bowl favorites.
Why he won’t win: He’s unable to cut down on his top-five turnover total from a season ago and costs his team important games.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs +750
Why he will win: He’s more consistently the quarterback we saw in the first half of their playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals than he is the quarterback that showed up in the second half of that game.
Why he won’t win: KC’s new receiving corps is unable to compensate for the loss of Tyreek Hill, and the strain on the offense is magnified by the team’s poor defense.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
Why he will win: Chris Godwin gets healthy, Julio Jones has an Antonio Brown-like resurgence and the ageless wonder Brady simply repeats his incredible 2021 season by throwing for over 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns.
Why he won’t win: With one foot in retirement, Brady is unable to maximize a diminished receiving corp with Godwin a step slower, Jones washed and Rob Gronkowski retired.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers +900
Why he will win: Herbert puts up the same type of production from 2021 when he joined Brady as the only players with 5,000 yards, and he adds more wins to go with the stats.
Why he won’t win: He can’t pull out close games, especially in a tough division with the potential to limit his win total. He continues to struggle against some of the better defenses in the league.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers +1000
Why he will win: He’s the two-time reigning MVP, and Davante Adams had less to do with that success than we realized. Rodgers will make a new star out of his new receiving corp.
Why he won’t win: Rodgers’ new targets prove to be unreliable, so Green Bay leans heavily on its rushing attack and makes Rodgers’ the most expensive game manager in football.
Sleepers
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals +1200
Why he will win: A receiving group of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd proves to be unstoppable. Not to mention defenses have to account for Joe Mixon in the backfield. MVP is the next step for Burrow.
Why he won’t win: The Bengals suffer the same fate as other recent Super Bowl runners-up and fail to come close to the success of last season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys +1500
Why he will win: Dallas has never been set up more for Prescott to show just how valuable he is. With a subpar offensive line and receiving corp, Prescott doesn’t miss a beat from last season.
Why he won’t win: The losses of Tyron Smith, La’el Collins and Amari Cooper are simply too much, and Dallas’ offense falls flat in 2022.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens +2000
Why he will win: He’s a recent MVP, who looked to be well on his way to candidacy in 2021 before injuries derailed Baltimore’s season.
Why he won’t win: Jackson fails to eliminate the poor decision-making that reared its head at times last season, and Baltimore plays second-fiddle to Cincinnati in the AFC North.
Long shots
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans +5000
Why he will win: With the loss of A.J. Brown in the passing game, Henry becomes an even bigger focal point of Tennessee’s offense without any decline in his efficiency on carries.
Why he won’t win: Large workloads of past seasons catch up and he slows down, especially against defensive boxes loaded up to stop him.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams +6000
Why he will win: With his value validated through a Super Bowl MVP award, Kupp has a repeat of his monster 2021 when he finished third in regular-season voting.
Why he won’t win: Defenses finally figure out how to limit his touches and funnel the activity to LA’s other receivers.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers +8000
Why he will win: San Francisco continues to utilize his skillset as both a rusher and receiver, and he helps rookie Trey Lance in his quest to make the Niners legit contenders.
Why he won’t win: The Niners pull back on his carries and use him strictly as a receiver, where he’s still very good but not nearly as valuable.
The field
