Offensive player of the year has become the de facto runner-up to the MVP award. Sometimes it goes to a quarterback. But in four of the last five year’s it’s singled out the best non-QB skill player in the NFL.
In recent years we’ve feted monster seasons from Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Derrick Henry, DeMarco Murray and Todd Gurley, which is a reminder these guys were all awesome but, uh, make sure to enjoy prolific stars while you can. The 2022 race for the prize is shaping up to be a proper follow-up to last year’s battle between Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Let’s look at the top candidates after 10 weeks of the regular season.
Honorable mention: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs
Henry is once again dragging the Titans’ offense to respectability. He’s run the ball more than anyone else in the NFL — 22.4 times per game, which is low for him but exceedingly high for almost anyone else — and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry after a slow start. His 2.5 yards after contact is an improvement from 2021 and his ability to gain strength as the season goes on suggests he’s very much still in this race.
Brown has been paramount to the Eagles’ revamped passing attack and was on pace for a 1,500-yard, 13 touchdown season before the Washington Commanders grounded him in Week 10. He remains a mismatch machine in a powerful offense and should still put up big numbers to finish his debut season in Philadelphia.
Diggs continues to thrive, even as Josh Allen has suffered through a mid-season slump. He’s on pace for 136 receptions and 1,861 receiving yards — two numbers that would both be top five all-time single season marks. His shine is dulled slightly by his often-incredible quarterback, but he’s still very, very, very good.
3. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
The New York Giants are 7-2 and have already matched their preseason Vegas win total. Daniel Jones’ newfound aversion to turnovers and a peppy defense have played a role, but there’s been no bigger factor in the Giants’ rise than Barkley’s revival in the backfield.
Barkley leads the league in rushing yards and lifted a team that ranked 30th in rushing offense DVOA in 2021 into playoff position. He’s getting the ball almost as much as Henry, has an outside shot at 2,000 rushing yards and, importantly, can clearly demonstrate his value for a rising team after two disappointing, injury-marred seasons.
While he’s not the receiving threat he once saw he also contributes in that facet as well. He may not be the league’s most efficient tailback, but you can argue he’s made a bigger impact in 2022 than any other runner.
2. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Through 10 weeks, Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in:
- catches (81)
- receiving yards (1,148)
- and first downs created (52)
While those numbers are skewed slightly because he’s played 10 games compared to most teams’ nine — the Dolphins bye is this weekend — those are wild full-season numbers racked up in only 59 percent of the 2022 campaign. He’s hit at least 140 receiving yards in half Miami’s games to date and is on pace for more than 1,900 yards on the season. That’s a number only two other wideouts have ever hit and it was good enough to win Kupp the award in 2021.
More importantly, he’s played a massive role in turning Tua Tagovailoa from “kinda/sorta franchise QB” to “THE ANSWER” for a Dolphins team that currently leads the AFC East. Hill is also clearing space for Jaylen Waddle and his league-best 11.7 yards per target to thrive. Waddle’s presence might ding Hill’s value in the eyes of voters. Or it may open their eyes to the fact he’s a rising tide in a suddenly devastating offense.
1. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson is a singular force. The Buffalo Bills learned that the hard way in Week 10. While Buffalo’s top five passing defense was able to contain him in stretches, his superhuman route running and ball skills ultimately culminated in a stunning comeback in Orchard Park and what will almost certainly be 2022’s catch of the year.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON CATCH OF THE CENTURY. pic.twitter.com/Cos6v0yPIC
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 13, 2022
Through nine games, Jefferson is on pace to potentially become the league’s first 2,000-yard receiver — though he may get beaten to the punch by Hill. The two-time All-Pro is having a breakthrough season, even by his standards, and elevating the Vikings even in a year where Kirk Cousins’ numbers have declined.
He may be getting better, too. Over his last six games Jefferson has averaged 8.5 catches and 135 receiving yards per contest — a ridiculous 144-catch, 2,300-yard pace. He averages 11.5 yards every time Cousins targets him in that stretch. The next-closest Viking, Adam Thielen, clocks in at 7.3 yards per target in 2022. Defensive coordinators have a playsheet whose primary focus is simply “STOP JUSTIN JEFFERSON” and they’ve been unable to get it done.
