The NFL MVP award is, for all intents and purposes, a quarterback’s award. It’s been nine years since anyone other than a passer was deemed the league’s Most Valuable Player. With passing offenses more important than ever, it would take a superhuman performance from a running back or wide receiver or pass rusher to sway voters to their side.
That narrows down 2022’s candidate list. While Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson have both been great, it’s a longshot either would be able to rage their way into serious consideration for the award while a handful of quarterbacks are absolutely cooking behind center. This fall has been the backdrop to some notable fades — Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott foremost among them — but the league’s best teams have been powered by high octane aerial attacks.
Knowing that, we can narrow this year’s field down to a handful of quarterbacks who’ve been difference makers for teams in contention. After 10 weeks, here’s how the MVP race is shaping up in my eyes.
Honorable mention: Geno Smith, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
Smith is the engine behind the Seahawks unexpected run to the top of the NFC East. He’s been a top five passer in an age-32 breakthrough.
Jackson’s passing stats have rebounded despite a dearth of playmakers in Baltimore. He’s currently got the Ravens in position to win the AFC North while ranking third in the league in touchdown rate (6.2 percent) and running for more than 70 yards per game.
Allen was the MVP frontrunner a quarter of the way into the season. He’s cooled considerably since then, throwing six interceptions (along with three total fumbles) in his last three games. When he’s at his best, he’s got an extra gear few players in the league can match.
3: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles spent the past two seasons building an offense they hoped Hurts could master. He’s done just that in 2022, leveling up his game with a complement of dynamic targets like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. It doesn’t hurt that he also has arguably the league’s best offensive line in front of him.
After taking a modest step forward in 2021, Hurts has leapt into the spotlight this fall. He’s scored 20 touchdowns in nine games against only four turnovers (three interceptions, one fumble). He ranks second among all starting quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt, second in interception rate and third in passer rating. On top of that, he’s adding more than 40 yards per game on the ground.
Hurts is the sparkling quarterback for the team with the best record in the NFL. His rise is a big reason why a team that went 9-8 last season and only beat one team with a winning record — the New Orleans Saints — is now in line to clinch the NFC’s top seed. Narrative counts. Hurts has the Eagles’ ascension on his side.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill — the guy currently lifting Tua Tagovailoa to new heights — but continues to absolutely cook in Kansas City. Through nine weeks he leads the NFL with more than 326 passing yards per game. His 25 touchdowns through 10 weeks are five more than the next closest player.
He’s doing this all without his former WR huckleberry in the lineup. While Travis Kelce has shouldered his share of the aerial output, Mahomes has the Chiefs 7-2 while throwing touchdown passes to players like Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, Jody Fortson and Noah Gray. It feels like a different player steps up every week in his offense, which in fairness is exactly what he warned us about this preseason.
Mahomes also offers more consistency than the other members of this list by virtue of having done this before. He hasn’t been as devastating as he was in his 2018 MVP campaign, but he’s a blue chip stock in what could be a volatile market as the regular season winds down.
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa’s value isn’t an abstract figure divined through numbers. We know how much he means to the Dolphins’ success because we’ve seen what happens without him. Miami is 7-0 in games he’s started and finished and 0-3 in the games where Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson were pressed into extended action.
Tagovailoa hasn’t just proven he’s a franchise quarterback in 2022 — he’s emerged as one of the best passers in the league. With Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner Hill supercharging his offense, the embattled lefty has emerged as an uber-efficient machine who stands head and shoulders above the rest of the league when it comes to advanced stats:
The Dolphins are pointed toward their first playoff berth since 2016. It wouldn’t count in the regular season MVP votes, but a Wild Card or Divisional win would be the franchise’s first postseason victory since 2000 … when Dave Wannstedt was head coach. That’s one hell of a narrative to carry in a narrative-driven award. Tagovailoa doesn’t just look like the league’s most efficient quarterback — he may also have 2022’s most encouraging story.
