The 2022-23 NFL coaching carousel turned slowly. Three sideline generals were fired in the course of the regular season, beginning in Week 6. Only two were let go on Black Monday, the day after Week 18 and the official start to the offseason for teams that failed to qualify for the postseason.
That comparatively unhurried pace extended to the hiring process. Franchises took their time interviewing assistants and vetting rising prospects in order to find the right guy. More than two weeks and 10 playoff games passed before the first hire of the 2023 offseason was announced
That came when the Carolina Panthers named Frank Reich their new leader — an announcement that, coincidentally, came the same day reports swirled the Indianapolis Colts could retain Reich’s replacement, interim coach Jeff Saturday (who went 1-7 in his audition to close out 2022). That’s only the first domino to fall in an NFL landscape where five teams began the year looking for new head coaches.
This tracker will stay abreast of all the new hires in this latest coaching cycle, beginning with Reich’s arrival in Charlotte.
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans
Ryans turned down coaching interviews after the 2021 season in order to accrue experience with the San Francisco 49ers. He came back to the sideline for 2022 — and promptly turned his defense into the top-ranked unit in the NFL.
That only ratcheted up the Ryans hype cycle. It reached a new gear when he agreed to a six-year contract to oversee the latest stage of the Houston Texans’ rebuild.
Former 49ers’ defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans reached agreement today on a six-year deal, per sources. Texans have their new head coach. pic.twitter.com/1CvFSLvZY5
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 31, 2023
How hot was Ryans? He reportedly was the Broncos first choice, forcing them to pick Sean Payton as a fallback — though that’s disputed.
Unbelievable: The #Broncos spent today trying to hire DeMeco Ryans AGAIN today before he recommitted to the #Texans, sources say. When he agreed to terms with the Texans, they moved and finalized Sean Payton.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 31, 2023
This makes sense. Ryans was 2006’s defensive rookie of the year en route to a 10-year playing career. It only took five years following his retirement to rise to a coordinator role with one of the NFC’s best teams. The 2020 Niners ranked 15th in scoring defense. That improved to ninth in 2021 and first in 2022.
Along the way, Ryans helped develop players like Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir from late round picks into bonafide starters. He helped Fred Warner and Nick Bosa continue their upward trajectory in All-Pro campaigns. While his resume is limited, his track record of wringing every ounce of potential from his players is impeccable.
That’s exactly what the Texans need after two years of disposable coaches to kick off an arduous post-Bill O’Brien rebuild. Ryans will inherit a roster scant on superstars but in possession of a few nice young pieces — particularly Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley, Dameon Pierce and Christian Harris. Unlike David Culley and Lovie Smith before him, he looks like a proper long term solution rather than the means to an end (i.e. tanking) the previous coaches served.
Houston hits the 2023 offseason with the second overall pick in the upcoming draft and nearly $40 million in salary cap space. The Texans will need to find a franchise quarterback and beef up its depth chart at nearly every position. This team is still at least a year away from contention, even after two hopeless seasons with only draft position to dangle as a carrot.
There’s a lot more work to be done, but Ryans brings the energy, potential and developmental background to restore the Texans to respectability. He may not have the name recognition of the other members of this hiring cycle, but he’s a capable coach for a team that desperately needs one.
Grade: A
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton
Sean Payton turned one undersized quarterback into a Super Bowl champion. The Broncos hope he’ll be able to work that same magic in Denver.
Breaking: Saints and Broncos are finalizing compensation in return for Super Bowl-winning HC Sean Payton, sources tell ESPN. This clears the way for Payton to sign with the Broncos to become Denver’s next head coach.
And so Payton is expected to head to Denver as its next HC. pic.twitter.com/HA4RAtE6P8
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 31, 2023
Payton was the biggest name available in this coaching cycle — a former NFL champion responsible for the greatest stretch of football in New Orleans Saints history. He was 152-89 in in 15 seasons at the helm and 9-8 in the playoffs, all one but one which came with Drew Brees as his primary quarterback. He also was suspended a year for his role in Bountygate (which rewarded players for injurious hits) and still under contract to his former team after one year as an on-air analyst.
This means he’ll cost the Broncos beyond whatever moonshot contract they’ll have to give Payton to coax him from retirement. Denver had to trade for its new head coach’s rights, further depleting a war chest of draft picks already devastated by the disastrous Russell Wilson trade. That compensation starts with the Broncos’ 2023 first round pick — a pick they had to trade away Bradley Chubb to acquire — and a second rounder in exchange for the Saints’ 2024 third round selection.
Compensation: Denver’s 2023 first-round pick and next year’s second-round pick for Sean Payton and the Saints’ 2024 third.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 31, 2023
That’s a lot! Unfortunately for Denver, it was a necessary price. Wilson’s first season as a Bronco was an abject disaster; a 5-12 campaign that handed Seattle a top five pick thanks to the NFL’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense. Minor changes weren’t going to fix things, especially with limited draft capital and middling cap space with which to work.
Payton has proven he can coach around the limitations of a fading, once-great quarterback. He shepherded New Orleans through Brees’ final seasons, adjusting for his QB’s waning arm strength. The veteran’s average target depth plummeted over his last three years in the league, dipping to an NFL-low 6.1 yards downfield by 2020. The Saints went 38-10 in that span, even accounting for the eight games Brees missed due to injury. They were one horribly botched pass interference no-call in the 2019 NFC title game away from an appearance in Super Bowl 53.
Jameis Winston’s promising start to 2021 provides further proof Payton is the right man for the job. However, the one constant late in his New Orleans tenure was an offensive line capable of propping up fragile or mistake-prone quarterbacks. The Broncos don’t have that and stand to lose 40 percent of their 2022 starters to free agency this spring.
This Denver tenure will be the true test of Payton’s coaching acumen. Wilson was horrible in 2022, a man who looked like he’s squared up with the hands of time and lost every round en route to a lopsided decision. But he’s only 34 years old and should still have a few more good seasons left in the tank. If anyone can coax them out, it’s Payton — even if the price of bringing him to Colorado to undo all the mistakes of the prior year was steep.
Grade: B
Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich
Interim head coach Steve Wilks went 6-6 in his dozen games at the helm. That’s more games than predecessor Matt Rhule won in any of the two full seasons he had in Charlotte.
While he had the support of his locker room, he didn’t have the support of team owner David Tepper, who passed him over to hire Reich instead. It’s a justifiable decision. Reich took a revolving door of underwhelming veteran quarterbacks and coached the Indianapolis Colts to 40-33-1 record and two playoff appearances in four-plus seasons.
Unfortunately, he could run into a similar problem in Carolina. Wilks was good enough to push the Panthers out of prime draft position and into the ninth overall pick. They’ll likely have to trade up to nab a top quarterback prospect. Otherwise, Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer will have to scour free agency and explore potential trades to add talent to a QB room that only has Matt Corral and Jacob Eason under contract for 2023.
That said, there’s a huge opportunity for a turnaround in Charlotte even with a mediocre passer behind center. The NFC South slogged through its way through its weakest season in years and likely won’t be better next fall. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are likely to lose Tom Brady and weren’t great even with him in the lineup. The New Orleans Saints are stuck in salary cap hell and the Atlanta Falcons are going through a very Atlanta Falcons stretch.
The Panthers don’t have to be great to win their division next season. Reich has proven he can wring more from less as a head coach, even if he didn’t get a fair shake in Indianapolis. The biggest question is whether he can make the leap to actual contention, especially with lingering quarterback questions to be answered.
But that’s a problem for another time. At the moment, Reich looks like the right man for the job — even if Wilks deserved the opportunity to run things full time.
Grade: B+
