The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's very simple to understand ... take the opponents' records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage for all 17 opponents. In the world of fantasy football, we use a similar method. Instead of using team records, we use the number of fantasy points allowed (FPA) by defenses the previous season against a single position (both at home and on the road) and rank the teams/players according to the average.
For example, the Seattle Seahawks allowed an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends overall last season. However, their defense was tougher on the road (12.6 PPG allowed) than at home (16.6 PPG allowed). Therefore, a road tight end who faces the Seahawks in Seattle receives 16.6 points. On the flip side, a home tight end who faces them receives 12.6 points. This goes a step deeper than typical FPA analysis, which is based on a combined average of the home and road numbers. The bigger the overall point total per team, the easier the projected schedule for 2022.
Fantasy Strength of Schedule: QB | RB | WR | TE
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
As you can see, the difference between the easiest schedule (Titans – 13.3 PPG) and the toughest slate (11.2 PPG) is not significant (2.1 PPG). However, strength of schedule isn’t the be-all, end-all in determining a player’s value. Instead, it should be seen as a useful tool in making decisions between non-elite players with similar value. Pat Freiermuth and Noah Fant, for example, will be listed in close proximity in most rankings, but the former could get the edge since his schedule is easier.
I’ve also included a comparison between the FPA totals in 2020 and 2021 to find any increases or decreases in fantasy points allowed against a particular position. In the case of tight ends, there wasn’t much of a difference. In fact, no team gave up more than 1.2 more fantasy points or fewer than 1.9 points per game if we compare the past two seasons. In all, 19 teams were (slightly) tougher versus tight ends in 2021.
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Notes
• The Titans have the easiest schedule in the league for tight ends, facing two teams within their own division (Colts, Texans) that allowed the fifth- and ninth-most points to the position last season. What’s more, Tennessee faces other tight end friendly teams like the Bengals, Cowboys, Packers and Commanders. That could help the value of Austin Hooper, who will be worth a late-round flier in most seasonal fantasy drafts.
• Dalton Schultz has the fourth-easiest schedule among tight ends, which makes him an even more valuable asset in fantasy leagues. The third-best player at his position last year, Schultz could see an even bigger target share in 2021 now that the Cowboys will be without Amari Cooper. Michael Gallup (knee) could also miss the start of the season, leaving Schultz as one of the best options in the passing game for Dak Prescott.
• The Browns tight ends have the fifth-best schedule based on FPA data, as they’ll face teams that struggled against the position in 2021 like the Ravens (twice), Bengals (twice) and Chargers. With Hooper in Tennessee, David Njoku will see a bigger target share in a Browns offense that threw to tight ends at the fourth-highest rate last year.
• Darren Waller’s fantasy value has taken a hit after a disappointing 2021 season and the acquisition of Davante Adams via trade. He’ll also face one of the toughest slates of games for tight ends, as Waller will match up against the Broncos (twice), Patriots, 49ers, Cardinals and Titans. Those teams were among the seven toughest for tight ends to score against last season. Waller remains a No. 1 option, but with far more questions.
• Mike Gesicki was a top-seven fantasy tight end last season, but regression could be in his future. The Dolphins added superstar Tyreek Hill to the offense, not to mention Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Cedrick Wilson. That’s a lot more mouths to feed. Gesicki also has a tough slate of games that includes matchups against the Bills (twice), Patriots (twice), Vikings and 49ers, so his value has taken a bit of a hit for 2022.
- Fabiano's 2022 Dynasty Rankings
- Fabiano's 2022 Rookie Rankings
- Updated Dynasty Rankings
- Rookie Landing Spots Winners & Losers
- Post-Draft Veteran Winners & Losers
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for all of the late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
