Running back has long been the most important position in fantasy football as it pertains to rookies. Wide receiver has certainly caught up in recent years, but we’re almost always going to see a few first-year backs make an impact in fantasy.
Last season, we saw Kenneth Walker III, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier all make noise, finishing with 150-plus points. Breece Hall was on his way to a potential top-10 finish before injuring his knee, and Isiah Pacheco was useful down the stretch. We also saw Rachaad White, Brian Robinson and Zonovan Knight gain value as the year wore on. In 2023, we’re likely to see similar scenarios.
Of course, where a player is ultimately selected is as important as the skills and abilities he brings to the table. While we’ll have to wait to find out the new homes of all the top prospects until later this month in the NFL draft, we don’t have to wait to project their best possible landing spots from a fantasy football standpoint.
With that said, here are my top five running back prospects, their NFL player comparison and which team would be their best fantasy fit. I realize some of these moves are unlikely, but it gives you an idea of where a player best fits.
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1. Bijan Robinson, Texas
Robinson is the best back in this class, and he’s likely to be the lone player at his position picked in the first round. The Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers could have interest, but what about Bijan in Big D? The Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott and only have control of Tony Pollard for one more season. Robinson would take over the “Zeke” role as a rookie (250-plus touches in 2022) and take over as the featured back in 2024.
Player comparison: Saquon Barkley
Best fantasy fit: Dallas Cowboys
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
Gibbs isn’t the biggest back at 5’9” and 200 pounds, but he’s versatile (44 catches in 2022) and an explosive runner. In fact, NFL Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson has compared him to Chris Johnson. I see him as more of an Alvin Kamara, who could become a PPR machine at the next level. I’d love to see him land with the Cincinnati Bengals, who could move on from Joe Mixon due to his off-field issues. Playing in an offense with Joe Burrow would be a fantasy boon.
Player comparison: Alvin Kamara
Best fantasy fit: Cincinnati Bengals
3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
Charbonnet is a versatile running back with good size who averaged seven yards per rush in his final season. His 2022 totals were career highs, in fact, as he ranked 15th in rushing yards despite missing three games. He will be a No. 1 runner at the next level, maybe sooner rather than later, and I like him staying in Southern California with the Chargers. If the team can’t keep superstar Austin Ekeler, who has requested a trade, Charbonnet could come right in and be the starter. If Ekeler returns for the final year of his deal, the rookie would share the workload in Year 1 and take over a bigger role as an NFL sophomore and beyond.
Player comparison: James Conner
Best fantasy fit: Los Angeles Chargers
4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M
Achane is a smaller running back at just under 5’9” and 188 pounds, but he’s an explosive playmaker who caught 60 passes in his final 22 collegiate games. He doesn’t have the size or pass-blocking chops to be a true featured back, though he is fearless as an inside runner. Achane will likely be a home-run hitting, complementary piece in the NFL, so I like him with a team like the Cardinals. He would serve in a committee with James Conner for an offense that could need pass catchers if DeAndre Hopkins is traded or released. The Tennessee Titans would also be a nice fantasy fit for Achane for most of the same reasons.
Player comparison: Nyheim Hines
Best fantasy fit: Arizona Cardinals
5. Tyjae Spears, Tulane
Spears was a star for the Green Wave last season, as he rushed for 1,581 yards (6.9 YPC) and 19 touchdowns while winning the American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year award. He also caught 22 passes in 14 games, so he’s a versatile asset. I’d like to see him land in the City of Brotherly Love, as the Eagles could use him immediately with only the brittle Rashaad Penny ahead of him. Penny is also on a one-year deal, so adding Spears makes sense.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
