The Group Two July Stakes on the opening day of the July Festival at Newmarket has a patchy record when it comes to identifying potential Group One-winning juveniles. Just two of the past 10 – Advertise in 2015 and Shalaa in 2018 – subsequently winning at the highest level, although Ivawood (2013) went down by a nose in the Middle Park Stakes a few weeks later.
Rather more have struggled to win a race of any type after landing what was once seen as the most significant two-year-old contest of the season, but there is at least an interesting mixture of horses that ran at the royal meeting and lightly raced novice winners in this year’s renewal, so it is only fair to take a positive view for now.
Aidan O’Brien is enjoying his best campaign in Britain for several years and Mountain Bear, his only runner, will attract plenty of support, having emerged from what appeared to be the unfavoured group in an 18-runner maiden at the Curragh last month to get off the mark at the second attempt. This is not a race that tends to feature prominently on O’Brien’s target list, however, and he has won it twice since the turn of the century.
Mountain Bear’s most obvious rivals include Malc, the 66-1 runner-up in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, and Chief Mankato, who was withdrawn after playing up in the stalls before the Coventry Stakes at the same meeting, but the colt to back could well prove to be Andrew Balding’s Purosangue (2.25).
Newmarket 1.50 Saint George 2.25 Purosangue 3.00 Mill Stream (nap) 3.35 Adayar 4.10 Key To Cotai 4.45 Nostrum 5.20 United Front (nb)
Doncaster 2.00 Aighear 2.35 Parr Fire 3.10 Sky Warrior 3.45 The Bitter Moose 4.20 Holkham Bay 4.55 Couplet 5.30 Surprise Picture 6.00 Bird Of Play
Carlisle 2.15 Robusto 2.50 Impeller 3.25 Sophia’s Starlight 4.00 Eranthis 4.35 Kynsa 5.10 Dandy’s Angel
Epsom 5.55 Hurtle 6.25 Lucy Lockett 7.00 Toussarok 7.35 Dulcet Spirit 8.10 Buy The Dip 8.40 Strictly Dreaming
Newbury 6.10 Invincible Aura 6.40 Indication Dream 7.15 Gallant Lion 7.50 Tony Montana 8.20 Stonking 8.50 Symbol Of Hope
Balding’s juveniles typically find plenty of improvement for their first outing and only around one in a dozen make a successful debut, so it was highly encouraging Purosangue was able to make the running and then quicken four lengths clear on his first visit to a track at Haydock last month. He posted a decent time there and looks sure to improve for the experience and also the step up to six furlongs.
Newmarket 1.50 Aidan O’Brien’s Tower Of London was promoted to second-favourite for the St Leger after an emphatic success at Down Royal last time out, but that was in a handicap and Saint George ran to a very similar level when second to Gregory – the Leger favourite – in the Queen’s Vase at the royal meeting. At the likely odds, the latter looks the better bet at around 5-2.
Newmarket 3.00 Always one of the strongest three-year-old sprint handicaps of the summer and the form from a similar event at York last month could be the key. The impressive and progressive Quinault was first home there but he is up another 5lb for his fifth win in a row and Mill Stream, who was less than a length-and-a-half behind him on his fifth career start, is a more attractive bet at around 10-1 off a 1lb higher mark.
Newmarket 3.35 Just four runners for the Princess of Wales’s Stakes, the smallest field for 17 years, and an obvious chance for Adayar, the Derby and King George winner two seasons ago, to pick up a valuable prize on his first start at a mile-and-a-half since finishing fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October 2021.
