A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific and well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on 7 April, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new users.
The bets were made hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, even though US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent.
