There are 1,064 open seats in this year’s state legislative elections, 17% of all 6,137 seats up for election. That is below the average of 19% in each cycle since 2010. Looking only at previous midterm election years since 2010, that average was 20%.
An open seat is where no incumbent filed to run, meaning it is guaranteed to be won by a newcomer. Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
Across the 46 states holding state legislative elections this year, 449 Democrat-held seats are open, 610 Republican-held seats are open, and five independent or minor party seats are open. That is 6% below average for Democrats and 2% below average for Republicans. For independent and minor party seats, that ties 2010 for the record low.
