One month on from New Zealand’s general election, the country is still waiting for three parties to reach an agreement on the makeup of the next coalition government.
On 14 October, the conservative National Party beat the current centre-left Labour party government, winning a razor-thin majority to govern in a coalition with the rightwing Act party. That majority disappeared once additional voting results were announced three weeks later, forcing National to rely on a third party, the nationalist New Zealand First, to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
That leaves incoming prime minister Christopher Luxon, a relatively new politician with strong corporate credentials, to bring together Act and New Zealand First, parties that have major differences on key policies with leaders who have had heated personal exchanges during campaign debates. As negotiations drag on, Luxon is likely to miss his goal of forming a government before this week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.
Until a new government is formed, Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins is operating as a caretaker prime minister.
“What’s gone wrong here is that it was suggested this wouldn’t be a problem and it would be quick,” said Andrew Geddis, a political law professor from the University of Otago. “That’s what’s causing a lot of uncertainty.”
The three parties not only need to compromise on policies but also nut out the structure of their arrangement and what role individual politicians will play in the next government, he said.
“There are a number of different, moving parts that all have to be brought together before you get a final arrangement,” said Geddis.
Brian Roper, a professor of politics also at the University of Otago, saw at least two key policies where the parties were far apart, potentially prolonging negotiations. National’s proposed tax cuts leaned heavily on revenue raising from taxing foreign buyers entering New Zealand’s real estate market. Reopening the country’s real estate market, which is largely closed to foreign buyers, would be at odds with New Zealand First’s nationalist policy. The significant tax cuts proposed by National would have Act concerned about aggravating inflation, Roper said.
Act has also indicated that a referendum on the treaty of Waitangi, a document signed in 1840 that provides a framework for how the New Zealand government works with indigenous Māori, was a bottom-line policy for coalition negotiations. However, Luxon has previously called the idea “divisive and unhelpful.”
“You could see treaty issues in New Zealand rising to the kind of level of Brexit-type issues in the UK,” said Geddis, adding that a treaty referendum would “suck the political oxygen out of the room …”
A prolonged wait for a government was “what we bargained for” when New Zealand changed to the mixed-member proportional system in 1996 rather than “first past the post” elections like the UK, said Grant Duncan, a political commentator.
The MMP system encourages coalition governments between numerous parties and so far, in New Zealand, the longest negotiating period was two months following the 1996 election. However, Belgium holds the record for 652-days under a caretaker government while parties negotiated a new coalition, according to Duncan.
“We didn’t want a single-party majority ramming through their manifestos … so this is the way it has to be done,” he said.
• This article was amended on 14 November 2023. Grant Duncan, the political commentator quoted, had been misnamed as “Duncan Grant” in an earlier version. The treaty of Waitangi was signed in 1840, not 1984. And a reference to Australia being an example of a country that has “first past the post” elections was removed.
