In 1972, scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology made a bold prediction. By developing a scientific model that considered the way that humans and the planet interact with each other, the researchers determined that society was heading toward collapse by the mid-21st century, driven largely by the forces of growing population and capital over-exploiting limited planetary resources. Nearly 50 years later, a researcher at one of the largest accounting firms in the world checked in on the infamous study to see how the model has compared with reality. Turns out, we're right on schedule for our predicted demise — which is great, because there's nothing worse than a fashionably late doomsday event.
The new study, spotted by Vice, was conducted by Gaya Herrington, the sustainability and dynamic system analysis lead at accounting giant KPMG. It serves as an update to the classic research, which was published under the title The Limits to Growth. As part of her masters' thesis at Harvard University, Herrington analyzed the model using 10 variables to check in on how predictive it has been: population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. By taking the model's projections of these indicators and comparing them to empirical data, she was able to determine how closely the scientists were able to predict our reality, as well as figure out what trajectory we are currently on.
