A new poll is predicting Labour will win a comfortable 56-seat majority at the next General Election. As it stands, Sir Keir Starmer would win the keys to No. 10 with a 12-point lead over the Tories.
The MRP model by Savanta ComRes for LabourList shows the current Opposition would regain many so-called 'Red Wall' seats – including Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington. The next election is set to take place in 2024 after new PM Liz Truss seemingly ruling out an early snap election, reports the Mirror.
The polling did show some traditional bellwether constituencies - those that tend to indicate the winner of an election - not going Labour's way, with the Conservatives holding Dartford, Portsmouth North, Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth.
Voters in 357 of Tory constituencies said they trusted Labour more to manage policies related to the rising cost-of-living than the Conservatives, according to the research.
Mr Starmer leads Ms Truss in 53 of the 357 current Conservative-held seats, with the MRP model indicating that Labour is the most likely winner in 52 of those at the next election. The model also shows Labour gaining more than 20pts on their 2019 result in a number of seats, most notably leading to victories in the aforementioned Ashfield, and Eddisbury, which Labour didn't win even in 1997.
The headline MRP Voting Intention stands at Labour with 45%; Conservative 33%; Lib Dem 10%; Green 4% and Reform 3%.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment. Many traditional polls, and this MRP model, show Labour enjoying double-digit leads over the Conservative Party, but one percentage point either way could be the difference between a sizable Labour majority, a small Labour majority, or no majority at all."
He added: "He [Mr Starmer] has an opportunity now to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince voters that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, that have the answers to tackle the multitude of issues the country faces, the poll lead Labour have enjoyed throughout 2022 may start to feel more secure than it currently does.”
