A NEW “megapoll” has predicted how every seat in Scotland would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow – with the SNP remaining the largest party despite a hefty Labour surge.
Produced by think tank More in Common, the UK-wide poll of 15,765 adults used the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) method to combine survey data with demographic and geographic modelling to estimate public opinion at constituency level.
It found that Labour would be the largest party at Westminster, albeit well short of an overall majority.
The party is projected to win 250 seats, followed by Reform UK on 147, the Conservatives on 125 and the Liberal Democrats on 63.
The SNP would be the fifth-largest party with 27 MPs – three times more than the nine seats the party won at the 2024 General Election.
However, the results in Scotland in this poll are quite different compared to More in Common's MRP in July.
In that survey, the SNP were predicted to win 37 seats and Labour just 5.
In this more recent poll, meanwhile, Labour are predicted to win 18 Scottish seats – a recovery apparently driven primarily by Labour recovering support rather than a collapse in the SNP vote.
Reform UK have also fallen back significantly in Scotland according to the results, going from 6 seats in July to just one in this poll.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are projected to win six Scottish constituencies, up from three in July.
For a full map breakdown and list for each seat, head to the More In Common website.
Meanwhile, Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “On the eve of last year’s Labour Party Conference, our MRP projected Reform could get close to a three figure majority, while both Labour and the Conservatives dropped to below triple figures.
“Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. Our MRP suggests now that Labour would clearly emerge as the largest party on 250 seats, with Reform UK a distant second on 147 - less than half what they were projected to win this time last year. The Conservatives meanwhile, while still far from being a realistic prospect for Government, have once again made the Battle of the Right competitive, and are only 24 seats behind Reform - whereas they were trailing by 331 seats this time last year."
He added: “But far from representing a return to politics as normal, volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system. The model projects that almost half of the seats would be won on margins of less than 5 per cent, meaning small swings in either direction could see any of the Tories, Reform or Labour ending up on top. And while the Labour advantage in seats is comfortable even on these numbers, they would still be forced into a multi-party coalition or arrangement to maintain power.
“But the other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers - giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform. If Reform is to recover to the levels of support it enjoyed last year it needs to find a way not only to build support but also to dampen the level of opposition from its opponents.
"As for an Early General Election? On this projection, Burnham's decision to rule out an early election is a sensible one - while Labour is off its death bed, the party’s recovery is far from complete. To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss"
