Early evening summary
Net migration to the UK hit a record high in 2023 of 906,000 in a period covering Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak’s premierships, revised estimates show. Commenting on the figures at a press conference, Keir Starmer said:
A failure on this scale isn’t just bad luck, it isn’t a global trend or taking your eye off the ball.
No – this a different order of failure. This happened by design, not accident.
Policies were reformed deliberately to liberalise immigration.
Brexit was used for that purpose to turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders.
Global Britain – remember that slogan. That is what they meant. A policy with no support and which they then pretended wasn’t happening.
And now they want to wave it away with a simple “we got it wrong”.
Well that’s unforgivable. And mark my words - this government will turn the page.
Here’s a comment on Starmer’s language from Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast on Bluesky.
Starmer’s rhetoric on immigration in this presser is very striking. Casting the Conservative record in office as: “A one nation experiment in open borders.”
McSweeney’s fingerprints all over it. The direction of the govt will squarely be on more socially conservative, traditional Lab voters.
Angela Rayner, the deputy PM and housing secretary, has announced a review of local government funding.
Robert Jenrick, who resigned as a Conservative minister because he thought his government’s immigration policies were too liberal and who was runner up to Kemi Badenoch in the Tory leadership contest, has described today’s ONS figures as “a day of shame” for his party. He posted this on social media.
Today is a day of shame for the Conservative Party.
Our handling of immigration let the country down badly. The public are right to be furious.
Repairing the damage won’t be easy.
We will only begin to rebuild trust once we own up to our failures and fundamentally change.
Tories claim Starmer has 'no credibility' on immigration because he is ruling out cap
The Conservatives have responded to Keir Starmer’s press conference this afternoon by claiming that he has “no credibility” on immigration because he does not support a cap on numbers. In a statement issued by CCHQ, Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said:
If Keir Starmer really cared about bringing down net migration, he would not have suspended our increase to the family visa salary threshold and scrapped the deterrent the National Crime Agency said we needed, which were part of our reforms to bring down the numbers down.
Keir Starmer has no credibility on this issue. He has ruled out a legal migration cap and since he became prime minister channel boat crossings are up 23%. And we learnt today that 6,000 more asylum seekers are in hotels - despite Starmer’s promise to end hotel use.
Starmer discusses joint action on tackling illegal migration in call with German chancellor
Keir Starmer and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz discussed tackling illegal migration during a call today, Downing Street said. In a readout of the call, a No 10 spokesperson said:
The prime minister began by updating on the UK’s latest immigration statistics published this morning and set out his determination to continue working together to reduce illegal migration.
Both leaders agreed more could be done to smash the gangs in Europe and intercept smuggling gangs trading in human life.
Germany was a vital partner in supporting that action, the prime minister added.
Discussing progress on the joint action plan to tackle illegal migration, the leaders looked forward to signing the overarching treaty, which the action plan underpinned, in the coming months.
The former Tory chancellor George Osborne has collected a share of a £30m pay pot after the City advisory firm Robey Warshaw reported record profits, Kalyeena Makortoff reports.
Starmer's migration press conference - snap analysis
Keir Starmer has often said that he wants to reduce the level of net migration, he has always refused to say by how much, or to propose a target, and he has regularly spoken about the need to better train British workers so that employers are not so reliant on foreign labour. We did not know that the govenrment is going to publish a white paper with a plan to cut net migration soon (see 3.25pm), but otherwise what Starmer in policy terms this afternoon was mostly familiar.
But that does not do justice to the sheer audacity of his messaging. By forcefully accusing the last government of intentionally turning Britain “into a one-nation experiment in open borders” (see 4.12pm), he flipped an issue that has haunted Labour for years. And not just Labour; at the general election the Tories were still attacking Starmer personally for advocating “free movement” when he was running for party leader. Now he has been able to capitalise on an ONS data revision to make a plausible case that it was Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak who were the real open borders fanatics.
Plausible, rather than slam-dunk. In all the many inside accounts of the last Conservative government, you won’t find evidence of a deliberate plan to get net migration up to 900,000 a year. But this was the consequences of the decisions that were being taken, as people like Suella Braverman were happy to point out at the time. This charge certainly has enough merit in it to stick.
Yesterday, when Kemi Badenoch devoted her first policy-focused speech as Tory leader to immigration, she openly said this should be a winning issue for her party because Labour would never be able to deliver the reduction in net migration numbers that the public want to see. Perhaps that will turn out to be true. But today’s figure show that the last Conservative government failed on its own terms on this issue, and Starmer did a better job today at rubbishing their record than Badenoch did defending it.
Updated
What Starmer said as he claimed Tories running 'open borders experiment' after Brexit
Here is the passage from Keir Starmer’s opening statement where he accused the Conservatives of running an “open borders experiment”. He said
When we came into office – we immediately conducted an audit of public finances and we found a £22bn black hole.
Now – the independent Office of National Statistics has conducted vital work on the state of immigration and found the previous government were running an open borders experiment.
As the ONS sets out, nearly one million people came to Britain in the year ending June 2023. That is four times the migration levels compared with 2019.
Time and again – the Conservative party promised they would get those numbers down. Time and again – they failed.
And now the chorus of excuses has begun. We heard that from the leader of the opposition, yesterday.
But what we didn’t hear what the British people are owed is an explanation.
Because a failure on this scale isn’t just bad luck, it isn’t a global trend or taking your eye off the ball.
No – this a different order of failure. This happened by design, not accident.
Policies were reformed deliberately to liberalise immigration.
Brexit was used for that purpose to turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders.
Global Britain – remember that slogan. That is what they meant. A policy with no support and which they then pretended wasn’t happening.
And now they want to wave it away with a simple “we got it wrong”.
Well that’s unforgivable. And mark my words - this government will turn the page.
Updated
Q: The ONS had to revise its past net migration figures. Do you think we need a rethink of how these figures are calculated if they are so wide of the mark?
Starmer says the problem with these figures does not lie with the ONS. What is shocking is not the revisions, but the actualy figures. He goes on:
You have to double take when you see an increase of 184,000, to 906,000 in four years.
If we think about the previous decade or more, in terms of the sorts of numbers we were talking about, what’s shocking is not the way the figures are arrived at. This is one of those occasions, a bit like the £22bn [the black hole Labour claims to have discoverd in government accounts for this year], a bit like the prisons are over full, where the shock through the system is the sheer size of the number, and the loss of control under the last government.
And that was the end.
I will post a summary soon.
Starmer defends deal handing over sovereignty of Chagos Islands, and refuses to say if Farage right about Trump hating it
Q: Nigel Farage says Donald Trump hates the deal transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Is he right?
Starmer says the Chagos Islands deal is a good one. He says the government is taking it forward.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
The Chagos deal is a good deal. It secures the base that’s in the vital interests of the US and the UK.
And we are already engaging with the new administration in Mauritius as to how we take that forward.
Updated
Q: [From the Sun] Are you sympathetic to the argument that immigration is bad not for economic reasons, but for cultural reasons?
Starmer says he has talked about the economic impact. He says Britain should be training people to do the right jobs. The government should have a skills strategy.
(That was not what the questioner was really getting at.)
Q: Of the £5.4bn spent on asylum, how much has been spent on hotels. And can you get the spending down to zero next year?
Starmer says he wants to bring costs down, and hotel use down. He says one problem was that claims were not being processed. Now they are being. There has been “a significant redeployment of staff”, he says. And more flights have left taking people back.
Starmer repeats his point about immigration being far too high. But he says he won’t set a target for reductions.
Starmer says he wants to see net migration fall 'significantly'
Q: Will you set a target for reducing immigration?
Starmer says:
I want to see immigration come down significantly. I said that before the election, I said that during the election, I say it again here today.
That means bearing down on the influences that have driven it up this high with the measures that I set out a moment ago. We had a supposed cap in place for the best part of a decade, and it didn’t have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration.
So I don’t think setting an arbitrary cap, which is what previous governments have done, is the way forward. But do I want it to significantly reduce? Yes, I do, and that’s what our plan will achieve.
Q: Have you changed your view on assisted dying?
Starmer says it is a genuinely free vote. He does not want to put pressure on MPs. He has got a huge amount of experience on this. As DPP, he looked at every case for five years. He will vote tomorrow, he says.
Updated
Starmer says rise in net migration under Tories 'off the scale'
Starmer is now taking questions.
Q: [From Beth Rigby from Sky News] People feel let down by their politicians. What does bringing net migration down. Are you talking about the low hundred thousands? And how does that square with your need for economic growth?
Starmer says people were let down. This kind of increase was unprecedented. The rise in immigration was “off the scale”.
He says it will take “hard graft” to get it down.
He wants immigration to come down “significantly”, he says.
But he repeats the point about the four-fold increase not being “bad luck”, but “their policy”.
He says what they have discovered today is another “legacy failure”.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
When you say people have been let down, you are absolutely right because they were promised by the last government that we would get control of our borders and we had a government that completely lost control of our borders.
This sort of increase is unprecedented. It is off the scale what has happened in four short years. The way to get it down is the hard graft, not the gimmicks but the hard graft of driving it own on the skills agenda, migration advisory committee, making sure we are cracking down on employers that are breaking the rules.
Updated
Starmer mentions the deal with Iraq – briefed to journalists earlier, but embargoed until 3pm. (See 3.09pm.)
He says he has a message for the public.
Where the last government failed you, this one will not. They drove immigration numbers up. We will get them down. They left the NHS flat on its face. We will get it standing tall again. They [made you] poorer. We will put more money in your pockets.
It won’t be quick or easy, but we are going to turn things around, not with gimmicks, but with graft – a government that will not rest until the foundations are fixed, borders are secure, and Britain is rebuilt.
Starmer says government will soon publish white paper with plan to cut net migration
Starmer says the government will soon publish a white paper on plans to reduce immigration.
The Migration Advisory Committee is already conducting a review, he says.
And, in areas where employers are over-reliant on foreign workers, the government will crack down.
He says the UK will no longer be a soft touch. Employers who do not cooperate will be banned from hiring foreign labour.
UPDATE: Starmer said:
We will publish a white paper imminently, which sets out a plan to reduce immigration.
The Migration Advisory Committee is already conducting a review and where we find clear evidence of sectors that are overreliant on immigration, we will reform the points-based system and make sure that applications for the relevant visa routes, whether it’s the skilled worker route or the shortage occupation list, will now come with new expectations on training people here in our country.
We will also crack down on any abuse of the visa routes.
For far too long, we’ve been casual about malpractice in our labour market, which sends a clear signal overseas that we’re a soft touch.
Well, no more – our rules will be enforced.
Any employers who refuse to play ball, they’ll be banned from hiring overseas labour.
Updated
Starmer says today's ONS figures show Tories were running an 'open borders experiment' by design
Keir Starmer says the figures from the ONS today show the last government were running “an open borders experiment”.
He makes the point, made by a Labour spokesperson earlier (see 11.25am), about how the figures show net migration going up four times under the Tories.
This wasn’t just bad luck, he says.
He claims this happened by design. It was an experiment to turn Britain into a country with open borders.
And now the Tories want to wave this away with a simple “we got it wrong”.
That is unforgiveable, he says.
Scottish government says it will restore winter fuel payments for all pensioners next year
Every pensioner in Scotland will receive a winter heating payment next year, the Scottish government has announced. PA Media says:
Ministers were forced to delay plans to bring in the devolved pension age winter heating payment this year when the universality of its UK-wide counterpart was cut.
This afternoon social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville announced the Scottish government will ensure every pensioner receives a payment next year.
Under the plans, those in receipt of pension credit or other benefits and who have received a £200 or £300 payment this year will get the same next year through the devolved scheme.
All other pensioners will receive a reduced payment of £100.
As well as widening the eligibility of the payment, Somerville also announced a further £20m for the Scottish Welfare Fund and the same amount for Warmer Homes Scotland in this financial year.
The Scottish government, she said, has been forced to “mitigate” decisions made by the UK government, adding: “There has been change, but that change is that we are now mitigating against a Labour government and not a Tory one.
“We have not taken this decision lightly, given the significant pressures on the Scottish government’s budget, but this Scottish government is determined to stay true to our values.
“On our watch, we will treat people in this country with fairness, dignity and respect.
“We will not abandon older people this winter, or indeed any winter, and we will continue to protect our pensioners from the harsh reality of a UK Labour government.”
UK signs deal with Iraq to tackle people smugglers in Europe
Keir Starmer’s government has signed a deal with Iraq to tackle people smugglers across Europe, Rajeev Syal reports.
Keir Starmer holds press conference
Keir Starmer is about to hold a press conference. He will be talking about the immigration figures.
More than half of applications for pension credit since winter fuel payments cut announced have been refused, DWP says
Ministers routinely talk about the fact that claims for pension credit have soared since the government announced it was stopping most pensioners from getting winter fuel payments. Pensioners will still get the money if they receive pension credit, a benefit for poor pensioners with a notoriously low take-up, and the government has been actively encouraging people to apply if they think they might qualify.
But figures out today show show there has also been a huge increase in the number of applications being refused. In a report the Department for Work and Pensions says:
We have received around 150,000 pension credit claims in the 16 weeks since the [winter fuel payments] announcement on 29 July (which is up to and including end of week beginning 11 November 2024). This is compared to around 61,300 pension credit claims in the 16 weeks before the announcement.
This represents a 145% increase in pension credit claims received by DWP in the past 16 weeks compared to the 16 weeks before …
Comparing the 16-week periods before and after the announcement, the number of pension credit claims awarded has increased by 17% (from 36,400 to 42,500), alongside a 96% increase in the number of pension credit claims not awarded (from 27,100 to 53,100).
As PA Media reports, since the winter fuel payment 42,500 applications for pension credit have been approved, and 53,100 have been turned down.
Age UK said these figures were a “massive disappointment”.
Unite union launches legal bid to try to overturn government's decision to cut winter fuel payments
The Unite union has launched legal action against the government over the chancellor’s decision to means test winter fuel payments, PA Media reports. PA says:
Unite claimed the government did not follow the correct procedure in making the decision, which will see around 10 million pensioners miss out on the benefit.
The union had threatened legal action earlier in November and it announced that it has applied to the high court for leave to proceed with a full judicial review after receiving an “unsatisfactory” response to its demand that the government reverse its decision.
Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said: “Labour’s decision to pick the pocket of pensioners was wrong on every level. The government has been given every opportunity to reverse its decision and it has failed to do so. This is a rushed, ill-thought-out policy and the government clearly failed to follow the proper legal measures before executing it. With winter approaching the courts must now hold the government to account and reverse this cruel cut as quickly as possible.”
The union said it hoped the court would grant an urgent hearing on its case in the context of “worsening weather conditions and dropping temperatures”.
In its pre-action letter, the union said it believed the government had breached its legal duties by not referring the cut to the Social Security Advisory Committee (SSAC) and by failing to consider the impact on disabled people, among other grounds.
Ministers are not required to refer regulations on benefits to the SSAC if they are a matter of “urgency”, something the government relied on when implementing the winter fuel cut.
The Government also conducted an “equalities analysis”, which was released under the Freedom of Information Act, but has been criticised for not carrying out a full impact assessment of the policy.
The bid for a judicial review will further strain relations between the government and Unite, which has been one of Labour’s main donors but grown increasingly distant from the party since Keir Starmer became leader.
The government said it coulld not comment on ongoing legal cases, but a spokesperson said it was “committed to supporting pensioners” and urged people to check if they were eligible for pension credit.
Starmer condemns Russia's attack on Ukraine's energy grid as 'depraved' in call with Zelenskyy
Keir Starmer has spoken to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy as his country’s power grid faces bombardment by Russian forces, PA Media reports. PA says:
Zelenskyy characterised the latest attack by Vladimir Putin’s forces as “yet another act of Russian air terror targeting Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, involving over 90 missiles and nearly 100 drones”.
Russia’s renewed attack on Ukraine’s power grid, the second in less than two weeks, has added to fears the Kremlin is hoping to cripple its foe’s power generation ahead of winter.
One million homes have lost power in the war-torn nation, according to Ukrainian officials.
Downing Street described the Russian strikes as “egregious”, adding that the prime minister characterised them as “systematic” and “depraved” when speaking to Zelenskyy.
Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has put out her own statement about the immigration figures. She said:
In the space of four years net migration rose by almost five times to a record high – that shows the serious damage that was done to the immigration system, the lack of proper controls in place, and the over-reliance on a big increase in overseas recruitment.
Net migration is still four times higher than it was at the beginning of the last parliament and we are clear that it needs to come down.
That is why we are continuing with visa controls and setting out new plans to link them to the system for training and skills here in the UK to tackle the big increase in overseas recruitment over the last few years.
Migration has always been an important part of UK history and our economy, but the system needs to be properly managed and controlled.
‘People-first’ transport in English towns could be integrated by apps
Transport across towns and cities could become integrated using dedicated apps, with investment focused on poorer areas and healthier methods, as part of what ministers are calling a “people-first” revolution in local travel. Louise Haigh, the transport secretary, described the plans in a speech in Leeds as “a revolution to wrestle back power over transport”. Peter Walker has the story here.
Tory visa changes may not reduce migration below pre-Brexit levels, experts say
The Migration Observatory, the leading migration thinktank, based at Oxford University, has published a good briefing on today’s migration figures. Here are the key points.
The visa changes announced by the Conservative government may not bring migration below pre-Brexit levels, it says. Commenting on the figures, Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory, said:
We are yet to see the full impact of the visa restrictions in the data, although this initial data from the summer suggest that migration levels will not necessarily fall below pre-Brexit levels once the policy changes have bedded in. Of all the policy restrictions introduced over the past year, the restrictions on sponsorship in the care sector are likely to have the largest impact on net migration levels in the medium term, because of the significant number of people involved and the fact that most were expected to remain in the UK permanently.
And this is what the briefing says about the impact of the visa changes in general.
Health and care visa grants to main applicants were down 85% from a Q3 2023 peak of just over 45,000, reaching around 6,600 in Q3 2024. This follows a Home Office crackdown on sponsorship in the care sector due to concerns about exploitation of migrant workers starting in late 2023. The ban on family members of care workers may also have played a role, although most of the decrease preceded that policy change.
Following significant increases in salary thresholds for private-sector jobs, skilled worker visa grants outside of health and care declined by 32% between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, from 17,800 to 12,100. The largest decrease was seen in visa grants to middle-skilled roles in the food and hospitality sector, such as butchers and chefs, which fell 64% in the same period. However, there were also decreases in professional jobs, such as engineers (down 37%) and IT (down 30%).
Student visas fell following the ban on most students’ family members in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to the same period a year earlier. This was primarily driven by fewer family members themselves (down 84% in Q1-3 inclusive). The number of student main applicants fell by 16% or 64,000 over the same periods. The declines are likely to be spread unevenly across the higher education sector. The 31% decline in combined student and dependant numbers was driven primarily by applicants from Nigeria and India, down 74% and 42% respectively.
The asylum backlog has been going up this year, the briefing says.
Despite efforts introduced by the Labour government to increase the speed of asylum processing, the asylum backlog rose slightly, from 95,300 in June to 97,200 at the end of September 2024. However, any reduction in the asylum backlog must also be viewed alongside trends in the appeals backlog, which has risen substantially, reaching 58,000 in April-June 2024.
In its figures, the Home Office say the asylum backlog was lower in September than it was the year before. (See 10.11am.)
Asylum acceptances are going down, the briefing says.
The grant rate for asylum seekers has fallen over the past two years. In the year ending September 2024, 52% of asylum seekers were granted asylum or another legal status, down from 75% in the year ending September 2023. This decline follows an increase in the standard of proof for asylum seekers following the Nationality and Borders Act (NABA) of 2022. The impact has taken some time to materialize because of the asylum backlog.
Reform UK announced a prominent new recruit today, the former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns. But Nigel Farage’s party has also lost someone who used to be senior in the party. Ben Habib, who was co-leader of the party for nine months from October 2023, has announced that he is cutting his links with his former colleagues.
He has posted a video on social media explaining why. He says he cannot resign, because he is not a member, but he says he wants to announce that he is not afffiliated with the party any more.
He says he has long had concerns about the way Farage has been running the party. And he says he does not agree with Farage’s view that Brexit is now “done”.
He also says he cannot understand Farage’s “obsession with recruiting Tories”.
It is a sad day for me. I must sever my ties with @reformparty_uk
— Ben Habib (@benhabib6) November 28, 2024
Needless to say I shall remain a part of the movement I helped create and I will go on fighting for a proud, sovereign, democratic prosperous United Kingdom
Here is why: pic.twitter.com/YkR7ZSZ3I7
Habib has been estranged from Farage for some time.
According to James Heale from the Spectator, Farage is happy to see Habib go.
Asked about Ben Habib’s resignation from Reform, Nigel Farage bursts into a rendition of “The Sun has got his hat on, hip hip hip hooray”
Home Office announces plans to toughen sanctions applied to firms breaking visa rules for foreign workers
Back to the migration figures, and here is the response from Seema Malhotra, the Home Office minister.
We absolutely believe that net migration has to dome down, but in order to do that we need to go further.
That’s why we believe that we need to tackle the causes of net migration, including linking skills and visa policies, addressing those gaps in skills and reducing the reliance on overseas recruitment.
But it is also why today I set out new measures, tough measures, to tackle employers who abuse our visa system and flout the rules.
Malhotra was referring to a series of relatively technical changes that will toughen the sanctions that apply to firms that break visa rules relating to foreign workers.
Updated
Q: Will your relationship with Donald Trump help you professionalise Reform UK?
Farage says Trump’s campaign this year was much more professional than it was in 2016. He says he has got people like Zia Yusuf working for Reform UK because he wants to do something similar.
He also claims that Trump benefitted from having people like Robert F Kennedy Jr supporting him. Trump was not just a one-man band. Farage says he is trying to adopt the same approach. There are other voices speaking for Reform UK, he says.
And he says Trump also won partly because he attracted more black and Hispanic support. Reform UK could do the same, he suggests. He claims there were more Bame voters backing Reform UK than the Lib Dems at the general election.
And that’s the end of the press conference.
Q: Are you going to reach out for centre-ground voters? Or you are relying on people how never normally vote for you deciding go vote?
Farage says the centre ground in the country is not what MPs think of as the centre ground. He says there was an example of this in the Commons yesterday when Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, said the closure of the Vauxhall van factory in Luton showed by net zero car policies were unwise. He says MPs treated that as “heresy”, but people in the country view that as common sense.
Q: What is your plan to cut immigration?
Farage says the UK has to leave the ECHR to be able to tackle illegal migration.
And, on legal migration, he says he wants to “drastically reduce” numbers. If skilled workers are needed, time-dependent work permits should be issued.
He says this might require wages for people like care workers to go up. He accepts that.
Nigel Farage says, if the Tories had voted for Robert Jenrick at leader, that would have meant they were voting to definitely leave the European convention on human rights.
But they rejected that option, he says.
Andrea Jenkyns claims Tory supporters want to see the UK leave the ECHR.
Farage says Reform UK will have to win 'hundreds' of seats in local elections to be credible
At the press conference they are now taking questions.
Q: How long have you been thinking of joining Reform UK. You had a picture of Nigel Farage on your election leaflet at the election?
Andrea Jenkyns says she has been thinking about it for a while.
She is loyal to parties – if not to PMs, she says.
She says the Conservative party is “tired”.
But she says she has some good friends in the Tory party, like Priti Patel, Boris Johnson and Robert Jenrick.
Nigel Farage says half the Tory party should join the Lib Dems, and half should join Reform UK.
He claims Reform UK can replace the Conservatives.
Q: How many council seats do you need to win?
Farage says he is following the Paddy Ashdown model. Ashdown knew that, unless you won a significant number of council seats, you would not win seats in parliament.
He says the party has a good chance at the Senedd elections. And he claims it is recruiting high-profile people to be candidates there.
And he says Reform UK is even doing well in Scotland. Ukip barely “troubled the scorers” in Scotland, he says. But he says at recent council byelections in Glasgow, the second weakest areas for Reform UK in Scotland, it was getting figures like 13%, 12.5%, and 18%.
He says, to be credible, the number of seats Reform UK must gain at the council elections has to be “in the hundreds”. But the party can do it, he suggests.
James Heale from the Spectator has posted this on social media.
Senior Tory source on Jenkyns’ defection: “To be honest, I thought she already had”
Andrea Jenkyns is speaking now.
She says leaving the Tories was not an easy decision.
But she says she thinks Reform UK has the potential to save the country.
She is proud to be the candidate for mayor for Greater Lincolnshire
She is known to be a Yorkshire woman. But she has strong links to Lincolnshire, she says.
If elected, she will root out the “woke leftish agenda” that you find in all levels of government, she claims.
She says she will stand up for farmers, who are facing a threat from Labour.
Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns has joined Reform UK, Farage says
Farage says Reform UK is now focused on the local elections next year.
And he claims that the party’s vetting process for candidates is more rigorous than other parties’.
There is one other number he wants to talk about, he says. He says his TikTok account now has more than 1m followers. He says two-thirds of them are under 35, and half are under 25. He says he is very excited about how much support there is for Reform UK in generation Z.
And he announces that Andrea Jenkyns, the former Tory MP, has joined the party.
He claims she was the 100,000th person to join – making her eligible for the prize the party offered for the 100,000th joiner – a pint with Lee Anderson.
And he says Jenkyns will be Reform UK’s candidate in the election for a mayor for Lincolnshire.
Updated
The Conservatives says today’s figures show migration is too high. This is from Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary.
Today’s figures confirm what we’ve been warning about: immigration remains far too high, and Labour was wrong to suspend further restrictions on family visas.
Farage says today's ONS figures 'horrendous', and claims Tory migration policies made people poorer
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader is speaking now at the press conference.
He claims today’s migration figures are “horrendous” for people who wants a GP appointment, or who want to use the motorways, or who want their children or grandchildren to be able to get a house, or who care about our “disjointed” society.
He says he does not accept that there has been a reduction. He says the ONS has revised up its figures for past years.
Immigration is making people poorer, he claims.
And he dismisses Kemi Badenoch’s admission yesterday that her party made mistakes. He says Tory immigration policies made people poorer.
UPDATE: Farage said:
Horrendous if you want to get a GP appointment, horrendous if you want to travel around Britain’s motorways, horrendous if you want your kids or grandkids to ever get a foot onto the housing ladder.
Horrendous in terms of producing very disjointed societies and communities.”
And you might have noticed, the quicker the population rises, the poorer the average family in Britain becomes.
Updated
Zia Yusuf, the Reform UK chair, has the party now has 400 branches across the country.
The party is copying the Lib Dems, he says – not in terms of policy, but in terms of organisation. He says the Lib Dems have shown the importance of having a political presence in local areas.
Reform UK says it now has more than 100,000 members
At the Reform UK press conference Zia Yusuf, the party chair, is speaking.
He says a year ago the party had 15,000 members, and was polling at 8%.
Now it has more than 100,00 members, he says, and is polling at 20%.
The Conservative party has 131,680 members, according to the figures it released at the time of the leadership contest.
Reform UK is about to hold a press conference.
There is a live feed here.
Labour says today's figures show net migration quadrupled in 4 years under Tories
I’m Andrew Sparrow, picking up the blog again from colleagues.
The Labour party has put out this statement about today’s immigration figures. It’s from a party spokesperson.
In their own words, the Tories broke the immigration system. On their watch, net migration quadrupled in four years to a record high of nearly one million, despite saying they’d lower it to 100,000. They are an open borders party who lied time and again to the public. This is the chaos Labour inherited and any crowing from the Tories should be seen in that light.
Over the summer, the government started the hard graft. We hired more caseworkers to tackle the asylum backlog and we’re now interviewing 10,000 people per month, compared to 2,000 under the Tories, so we can get people out of asylum hotels and save the taxpayers billions. We’ve also ramped up the removal of those with no right to be in the UK by a fifth. Without this action, thousands more would remain in the UK illegally.
Labour is getting on with cleaning up the Conservatives’ mess. Our new Border Security Command is working with our European partners to smash the criminal gang networks driving small boat crossings.
The UK’s asylum system now costs £5bn – the highest level of spending on record and up by more than a third in a year.
Home Office spending on asylum rose by £1.43bn, up 36% from £3.95bn in 2022/23 to £5.38bn in 2023/24, PA news agency analysis of figures published on Thursday showed.
The latest figure is now the highest total since comparable data began in 2010/11. It is more than four times the equivalent figure for 2020/21 (£1.34bn) and nearly 12 times the total a decade ago in 2013/14 (£0.45bn).
The total covers all Home Office asylum costs, including direct cash support and accommodation, plus wider staffing and other related migration and border activity.
The figure does not include the cost of operations responding to Channel crossings, intercepting people as they make the journey to the UK. Although the majority of people entering the UK in this manner do then end up in the asylum system, data suggests.
The Conservative former home secretaries Suella Braverman and James Cleverly are claiming credit for net migration starting to fall.
Braverman posted this on social media.
A 20% drop in immigration since June 2023 is a result of the changes I fought for and introduced in May 2023 as Home Secretary.
That’s when we started to turn the tide.
But 1.2 million arrivals a year is still too high.
This is unsustainable and why we need radical change.
And Cleverly posted this.
Today’s migration figures are the first to show the impact of the changes that I brought in as Home Secretary.
— James Cleverly🇬🇧 (@JamesCleverly) November 28, 2024
Numbers are still too high, but we see the first significant downward trend in years. Changes that Labour opposed and haven’t fully implemented. pic.twitter.com/qG03N34zWg
Today’s migration figures are the first to show the impact of the changes that I brought in as Home Secretary.
Numbers are still too high, but we see the first significant downward trend in years. Changes that Labour opposed and haven’t fully implemented.
I am handing over the blog to colleagues now. I will be back later this morning.
Today’s Home Office figures show that the cost of government spending on asylum was £5.38bn in 2023-24, up 36% from £3.95bn in 2022-23, PA Media says.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, a thinktank focusing on migration, race and identity issues, says today’s figures should remind Keir Starmer of the danger of making promises he can’t keep. Katwala says:
These are the final scores of the last government, after more than a decade of making promises they could not keep on immigration. The collapse in public trust was one reason for their defeat in July. If Keir Starmer learns one lesson on immigration from his predecessors, it should be not to make promises you can’t keep.
Starmer will oversee a continuing fall from the record levels of net migration but his challenge now is to manage the trade-offs on migration for the economy, NHS, universities and social care.
It remains to be seen how much the public will notice a fall in visa numbers if there is no progress on controlling the much more visible Channel crossings.
Number of cases in asylum backlog down 22%, says Home Office, but at 97,000 still higher than before 2022
The Home Office has also published a raft of immigration and asylum figures this morning. There is a summary of the figures here, but you can find all the sets of data here.
The Home Office says the number of cases in the asylum backlog (applications waiting to be processed) is down by 22%. It says:
At the end of September 2024, there were 22% fewer asylum cases awaiting an initial decision (97,170 cases, relating to 133,408 people) than at the end of September 2023
While the number of cases awaiting an initial decision is lower than the peak at the end of June 2023 (134,046 cases), it is higher than before 2022.
This chart from the ONS report shows the impact of the changes to the visa rules announced at the end of last year on net migration numbers. Most foreign students were stopped from bringing dependants with them. And the rules for work visas were tightened too, with social care workers no longer allowed to bring dependants with them.
This is from Mary Gregory, director of population statistics at the Office for National Statistics, on today’s figures.
Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels.
This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system. Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic also had an impact.
While remaining high by historic standards, net migration is now beginning to fall and is provisionally down 20% in the 12 months to June 2024.
Over that period we have seen a fall in immigration, driven by declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU.
Over the first six months of 2024, we are also seeing decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is partly related to policy changes earlier this year and is consistent with visa data published by Home Office.
We are also starting to see increases in emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely to be a consequence of the higher numbers of students coming to the UK post-pandemic who are now reaching the end of their courses.
Here is a chart from the ONS report illustrating the latest figures.
Net migration in year ending June 2023 hit record high of 906,000, says ONS, as it revises up past figures
Here is the PA Media story on the figures.
Net migration to the UK hit a higher than previously thought record of 906,000 in the year to June 2023, revised official estimates show.
The measure for the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country then dropped by 20% in the latest period, the 12 months to June 2024, and now stands at 728,000.
The total for the year to June 2023 has been revised upwards by 166,000 from the initial estimate of 740,000, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures published on Thursday.
A similar change has been made to the estimate for net migration in the year to December 2023, which was initially estimated to be 685,000, and is now thought to be 866,000 – an increase of 181,000.
The ONS said that while remaining high by “historic standards”, net migration is now “beginning to fall”.
The revisions come as the ONS has continued to review its net migration figures as more complete data becomes available and has improved how it estimates the migration behaviour of people arriving in the UK from outside the European Union.
Better analysis of the number of people coming to the UK amid the conflict in Ukraine has also been taken into account.
ONS revises up its estimate for net migration in year ending June 2023 by 166,000
Although the headline ONS numbers show net migration falling, the benchmark has shifted. The ONS is today saying that net migration in the year ending June 2023 was 906,000. But that is 166,000 higher than the ONS’s original estimate for net migration in the year ending June 2023.
This is how the ONS explains the discrepancy in its report.
Estimates in this release have been updated back to YE June 2021. For example, net migration has been revised upwards by 166,000 for YE June 2023 and by 181,000 for YE December 2023. Reasons for these revisions include: more available data, more information on Ukraine visas and improvements to how we estimate migration of non-EU+ nationals.
Net migration down 20% in year ending June 2024, but still 728,000, ONS says
The Office for National Statistics has published its net migration figures, and it says there was a 20% fall in long-term net migration between the year ending June 2023 and the year ending June 2024.
But the figures are still very high – 728,000 in the year ending in June this year.
The ONS says:
Our latest estimates indicate a fall in long-term net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere). Our provisional estimates show a 20% reduction between our updated estimate for year ending (YE) June 2023 (906,000) and our latest estimate for YE June 2024 (728,000).
This fall is driven by a decline in long-term immigration mainly because of declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas. Our most recent data points also show decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is consistent with visa data published by the Home Office, and in part reflects policy changes from earlier this year. It is also driven by a rise in long-term emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses.
Use robots instead of hiring low-paid migrants, says shadow home secretary Chris Philp
Businesses should be using more robots instead of hiring low-paid migrants, Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary has said. Eleni Courea has the story.
During her interview round this morning, Seema Malhotra, the Home Office minister, said she would vote against the assisted dying bill tomorrow because she is “concerned about the challenges, the pressures that could be put on vulnerable people” if the law changes.
David Cameron supports assisted dying bill due to ‘extremely strong’ safeguards
David Cameron has said he has changed his mind on assisted dying and supports the bill to legalise it ahead of its first Commons vote this week, Eleni Courea reports.
This is from Tim Bale, the politics professor and expert on the modern Conservative party. He believes the “party in the media”, as he calls it (aka the Tory press) is an integral part of the Conservative political operation, and he says they like Kemi Badenoch’s immigration speech yesterday.
#PartyInTheMedia very much on board with Badenoch atm pic.twitter.com/t3fRgU4ONu
— Tim Bale (@ProfTimBale) November 28, 2024
For a more critical take on the speech, it’s worth reading the FT commentator Stephen Bush on Bluesky. Here are some of his comments.
On Badenoch saying there has not been enough research into the costs and benefits of immigration
Putting to one side the non-trivial objection of ‘this is not true’. Yes, some of Sunak’s issues were ‘being an incumbent when inflation has spiked and the public services are on their knees’. But some were just being in this particular auction with Nigel Farage. Why will it work better for Kemi?
On the speech generally
Just as a matter of ‘actually being able to keep and make credible promises on immigration’, it is bonkers to start your leadership’s Big Political Rethinking with immigration, because you need to have a sense of how many people you actually think you *need* to keep public services running first.
Reducing immigration is a spending commitment, ultimately.
On Badenoch promising to cap net migration numbers.
A bold approach to return to the promise that destroyed a century-long advantage over Labour on immigration.
Government figures reckon the latest annual net migration figure will be around 500,000, Sam Blewett says in his London Playbook briefing for Politico.
Government officials and the Tories both reckon the ballpark provisional figure will be somewhere around 500,000, well down from that record high of 745,000 in 2022. There will be those who argue the latest figure is massive pretty much whatever it is — but if Starmer is serious about bringing down the numbers, he can thank a suite of measures that would have been much more unpalatable for a left-leaning party to have introduced.
The last big set of migration figures came out in May, and they showed long-term net migration at 685,000 in the year ending December 2023. Figures out this time last year showed net migration at 745,000 in the year to December 2022
Tories say a drop in net migration figures would be due to their visa changes
Good morning. The latest immigration figures are out this morning, but the political debate about them has already started. They are expected to show net migration figures falling, and the Conservatives say that is because of decisions they took before the general election. They are referring to the sweeping changes to visa rules announced by James Cleverly in December last year. Kemi Badenoch deployed this line at the start of her speech on immigration yesterday, saying:
Tomorrow, immigration figures will be released that should show a drop in net migration. This is because of the changes we made in the last year of the Conservative government.
But she said she did not expect the numbers to fall by enough.
The figures we saw for 2023 were astonishing. They highlighted a big problem we must be honest about. Even if we see a decline in tomorrow’s data, the fact is immigration, both legal and illegal, is too high.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has been giving interviews this morning saying much the same thing. Seema Malhotra, the Home Office minister, has been putting the counter case on behalf of the government. She told BBC Breakfast this morning that the government wants to see net migration fall, but she would not say by how much. She also said it was important to tackle the causes of high migration.
We want to see net migration coming down, but we have to do so in a way that is tackling the causes of net migration, because if much of net migration has been driven by recruiting workers from overseas, you also have to look at what the impact on the economy would be.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Immigration figures publishing the period up to June 2024 are published by the Office for National Statistics. The Home Office is also publishing its latest figures relating to asylum applications.
9.30am: Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
11.30am: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, is holding a press conference with the four other Reform UK MPs and the party chair, Zia Yusuf.
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