Heading into the season, many fans and analysts anticipated the Milwaukee Bucks would be serious players in the Eastern Conference. However, through seven games, they sit tied for last at 1-6, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez missing one combined game. What gives?
There are multiple factors contributing to the team’s underwhelming start. To parse through these variables, 75 percent of the SportsCasting crew teamed up for another addition of NBA Roundtable.
Factor No. 1: Bad Bench
To win in the NBA, you need talent, fit and depth. The Bucks employ Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Lopez and Khris Middleton – four top-50 players when all healthy. Talent is no issue for them. And considering the quartet boasts a plus-16.8 net rating in the 677 minutes they have shared together since Lillard joined the team (per PBP Stats), fit doesn’t seem to be a concern.
That leaves us with depth. The Bucks have a sound top four, but the cookie really crumbles after that. This is especially evident with their bench. On the season, the Bucks are 25th in bench points (27.6) and 21st in bench net rating (minus-2.2, per NBA.com).
A big reason for their lackluster second unit is the concessions they made by prioritizing high-end talent over reliable reinforcements. Remember, in a game where a salary cap structure exists, you can’t have everything.
But the team also isn’t doing themselves any favors with how they utilize their reserves. Head coach Doc Rivers continues to lean on veterans who’ve maxed out their ceilings rather than empowering young players with untapped potential.
The Bucks’ three leaders in minutes per game off the bench are Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Delon Wright – three flawed one-way players (Portis and Connaughton are offensively slanted; Wright is defensively slanted).
Milwaukee would be much better off relying on youngsters like A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr., MarJon Beauchamp, Tyler Smith and AJ Johnson. It kind of did this in its last game, which nearly worked against the unbeaten Cleveland Cavaliers. In that game, Green played 34 minutes and was a plus-five. Meanwhile, Jackson was a plus-five in his 25 minutes. Hopefully, Rivers takes notice of this trend and adjusts accordingly. –Mat Issa
Factor No. 2: Defensive Issues
Once a revered defensive group headlined by Antetokounmpo and Lopez’s domineering rim protection, and flanked by physical point-of-attack pests, the Bucks have been a complete nightmare defensively this season. Through seven games, they’re 26th in defensive rating. According to Cleaning the Glass, only once have they posted a defensive rating better than the 39th percentile, and that came in their season opener against the Philadelphia 76ers, which were missing Joel Embiid and Paul George.
While Antetokounmpo’s help awareness has faltered a bit, and Lopez is slower than the days of his prime, Milwaukee’s leading culprit is pitiful point-of-attack defense. Two seasons ago, even with Jrue Holiday at the helm, the Bucks’ depth of stoppers was tenuous and contributed to their first-round exit (in addition to Antetokounmpo’s injury). Nowadays, Holiday is gone, and they’ve found nobody to replace him.
They’re an old and slow group with little juice on the wing defensively, asking ill-suited players to wrangle nightly with stars. Nobody throws the first punch to get the offense stumbling. Milwaukee is 30th in turnover rate for the third straight season, two of which have seen it field a below-average unit. That ranking underscores its cumbersome lack of athleticism on the perimeter.
Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince cannot be a high-level defense’s designated stoppers. Both struggle around screens, and Trent gambles too often, which leaves him trailing plays. Formerly a rangy, sprawling on-ball bother, Wright has lost some verve and seems a bit removed from his defensive heyday. Lillard has largely struggled since joining Milwaukee and is often a target for opposing offenses.
The Bucks’ best choices are the youngsters, Green and Jackson, each of whom are pretty solid (at worst) point-of-attack defenders. Jackson’s minutes have ramped up the past three games (19.6 per night), and Green played 34 on Monday against the Cavaliers. Either or both of them earning starting-caliber minutes moving forward could help this defense trend upward.
Milwaukee also just needs more cohesion and communication to help cover for individual shortcomings. That’s not been there, and it exacerbates the issues. Much has gone wrong on the perimeter thus far, and much must be corrected to lift this group away from cellar-dweller status. –Jackson Frank
Factor No. 3: Poor Drafting/Roster Construction Management
Through their first seven games, just seven Bucks are playing at least 15 minutes per game. It’s arguably the tightest rotation in the NBA right now. Only the Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls and Portland Trail Blazers play seven or fewer players at least 15 minutes per night. Aside from Antetokounmpo and Lillard, the Bucks are light on talent for a team hoping to contend.
Lopez, Trent, Portis and Connaughton all sport true shooting percentages below the 25th percentile league-wide. Prince, a low-usage shooter, is the lone other Buck with above-average efficiency. This iteration of Milwaukee relies heavily on Antetokounmpo and Lillard, the latter of which has clearly lost a step.
Few teams have fared worse on the margins than the Bucks. They don’t extract value from low-cost free agents. They haven’t hit on draft picks, and Rivers is barely willing to play the young players on the roster (as mentioned earlier). Despite their clear need for role player depth, the Bucks continue swinging on project players like their 2024 first-round pick, AJ Johnson.
Some of these struggles result from Middleton’s injury, but Milwaukee has built its house out of brittle glass. It’s unreasonable to expect all of their injury prone stars to maintain health for long stretches. If the other role pieces can’t bounce back, who will Rivers turn to? Maybe Green, Jackson (like my colleagues prescribed), or Delon Wright play more. Regardless, Milwaukee’s poor roster building has limited its options and tightened its margin for error. –Ben Pfeifer
