Tuesday night, when the Lakers and Nuggets tip off in Denver, we will begin a season that will be defined by two words:
Competitive balance.
That’s right, the NBA’s decades-long dream of achieving NFL-like parity has been realized. A dozen teams in the Western Conference believe they are playoff teams (that’s playoff, not play-in), while at least half see a pathway to the Finals. The East is more top-heavy (Boston and Milwaukee are clearly top of the class), but the 76ers, Knicks and Cavaliers are good, and at least one of the up-and-coming teams at the bottom of the conference (Magic, Hornets, Pistons) could break out.
Now let’s all pray for an injury-free season.
After a few years away I am reclaiming the role of Power Rankings czar this season and I’m expecting a lot of movement in the rankings each week, especially as players get comfortable in new environments (looking at you, Bradley Beal) and coaches break some young teams of bad habits (hey, Ime Udoka). With a level-ish playing field, this season will have a lot of ebbs and flows.
You will find some interesting statistics and perhaps less interesting insights in this space during the season. But I’ll also use it to drop some reporting on teams I see during the year. So before we get to tip-off and the Lakers march to the NBA … er, nope, not ready to bring that take back yet … let’s assess where we stand in the debut of Sports Illustrated’s NBA power rankings.
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1. Denver Nuggets
What the Nuggets lost (Bruce Brown, Jeff Green) they should compensate for with organic growth (Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji). The 26.1 points Jamal Murray averaged during Denver’s title run suggests he is headed for a breakout season, and Nikola Jokić, still just 28, is in his prime. The Nuggets may get off to a slow start while they shake off the post-title hangover. But they remain the team to beat.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
There may not be a more perfect player for Milwaukee than Damian Lillard, who instantly fixes issues with the half-court offense and turns Khris Middleton into a premier third option. The Lillard–Jrue Holiday swap hurts the Bucks’ defense, but Milwaukee’s sturdy back line—Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis—will plug any leaks. Depth is an issue, but expect the Bucks to be on the prowl for veterans that wiggle free after the trade deadline.
3. Boston Celtics
Pros: The Celtics’ perimeter is arguably the NBA’s best, with All-NBA wings (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) and two-way backcourt players (Holiday, Derrick White). Cons: The front line is wafer thin and will lean heavily on a 37-year-old Al Horford and the injury-prone Kristaps Porziņģis. Boston will be dynamic offensively but may need another big to match up with the beefy Bucks in the playoffs.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
A 16–7 post–All-Star break record and a trip to the conference finals was all GM Rob Pelinka needed to double down on this roster. LeBron James is healthy, Anthony Davis is stronger, and Austin Reaves (17.6 points per game after the All-Star break) is poised for a breakout season. If either Christian Wood or Jaxson Hayes can play their way into the frontcourt rotation, L.A. will be formidable.
5. Phoenix Suns
Betting on Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to play 65-ish games apiece is betting against (very) recent history, but if Phoenix can keep its Big Three on the floor, look out. The decision to move off Deandre Ayton brought in some badly needed depth, and it says here Jusuf Nurkić, who spent years setting screens to free up Lillard and CJ McCollum in Portland, will have similar success in the Valley.
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6. Los Angeles Clippers
Last week, I posed the question: Do the Clippers need James Harden? We’re about to find out. L.A.’s stars are healthy, and its defense looked suffocating in the preseason. All eyes will be on Terance Mann, the recently named fifth starter. If Mann thrives, the Clippers will look smart for declaring him off limits. If he struggles, he may not be in L.A. for long.
7. Golden State Warriors
A lot of eyeballs will be on the Chris Paul fit in the Bay. I’m more interested to see what the Warriors get out of Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Kuminga led the Dubs in scoring (21.8 points per game) in the preseason. Moody scored 18 points in Golden State’s preseason finale against San Antonio, including 12 in the fourth quarter. Can the Warriors get regular-season production out of the ’21 lottery picks? We’ll see.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
Maybe I’m naive. I probably am. But Joel Embiid is the reigning MVP. Tyrese Maxey looks poised for a breakout year. Tobias Harris is in a contract year. And the Sixers have a solid mix of veterans (Patrick Beverley, De’Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker, Kelly Oubre Jr.) around them. This team can win. The James Harden situation lingers over everything, but with or without Harden, this team has a contending roster.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
That Steven Adams injury is a killer. The Grizzlies will still play two elite defenders (Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart), and Ja Morant will be back. But Adams was the muscle Memphis needed to rebound with the beefier front lines. The Grizz will be good. But with Adams and Brandon Clarke (Achilles) out, I’m not sure they can be great.
10. New Orleans Pelicans
Try to remember how good New Orleans was the first two months of last season, when Zion Williamson was terrorizing opponents in the paint. With Williamson back—the Pels have been experimenting with him at center—there’s no reason to believe they can’t be that team again. David Griffin has built a well-balanced roster around two stars (Williamson, Brandon Ingram) who have yet to reach their ceiling. If Zion stays healthy, New Orleans is a contender.
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11. New York Knicks
What do you do after winning 47 games and advancing to the second round? Bring the band back, which is exactly what the Knicks did. Julius Randle draws a lot of attention (and criticism), but New York could really use a star turn from RJ Barrett, whose three-point shot went on the fritz after the All-Star break. Barrett, 23, played well for Team Canada this summer, which the Knicks hope will be a springboard into an efficient season.
12. Sacramento Kings
Two things to watch with the Kings this season: Will De’Aaron Fox be the fourt-quarter killer he was for Sacramento last season? The Kings won a lot of games because Fox, the NBA’s leader in clutch situation scoring, carried them down the stretch. And what kind of step will Keegan Murray take? Murray shot 41.3% from three-point range last season. Can he develop into a more diverse scorer in this one? If he can, Sacramento could duplicate last season’s success.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs did a nice job reinforcing an offense that sputtered in the postseason, adding Max Strus and Georges Niang. Is Evan Mobley ready for more? Mobley is already one of the league’s top defenders, and team officials have suggested he will have a bigger role in the offense this season. Mobley has been studying Bam Adebayo, another defensive menace who has become a 20-point-per-game scorer. If Mobley can add some Adebayo-like offense—or at least be a threat on the perimeter—the Cavs will be tougher to defend.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
There isn’t a trendier pick for a breakout team than the Thunder. OKC has scorers (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren), playmakers (SGA, Josh Giddey) and big-time defenders (Lu Dort, Jalen Williams). Will Holmgren’s return supercharge a middle-of-the-pack offense? Can the Thunder build on last season’s 16-win improvement to take another leap? Stay tuned.
15. Miami Heat
Yes, the Heat went to the Finals last spring. But Miami lost two starters and is aging at key positions. Jimmy Butler is still a dangerous postseason player, but at 34 his minutes will need to be managed during an 82-game regular season. Bam Adebayo is a consistent 20-ish point, 10-ish rebound player, Tyler Herro is a reliable scorer, and the Heat are high on the young players (Nikola Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr.) in their system. But is that enough? Miami needed to battle through the play-in field to make the playoffs last season. They might have to do it again.
16. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have the firepower to beat anybody. And the defense to lose to everybody.
17. Atlanta Hawks
What will be the Quin Snyder effect in Atlanta? Snyder’s ball-screen-heavy offense should spring Trae Young and Dejounte Murray more in the half court. But can the Hawks, a bottom-third defense last season, get stops? Snyder has preached more effort in the preseason. We’ll see whether Atlanta responds.
18. Brooklyn Nets
Are we allowed to be optimistic about Ben Simmons? Simmons showed flashes of his old game in the preseason and reinstalled at point guard looked comfortable on the floor. A Simmons–Mikal Bridges combination has the potential to be suffocating defensively. Having Nic Claxton backstopping them doesn’t hurt, either. If Bridges can emerge as a reliable half-court scorer, the Nets could surprise people.
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19. Indiana Pacers
Indiana was 23–18 before the season derailed last fall, so there’s reason to believe this team is on the upswing. Tyrese Haliburton is an All-Star, Buddy Hield is a proven scorer and Indy’s young talent (Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard) should improve. Bruce Brown adds a defensive-minded veteran to the mix, and Indiana believes Obi Toppin will fit in well in the Pacers’ up-tempo offense.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves
Does anyone know how this season will play out in Minnesota? The T-Wolves have a dynamic star in Anthony Edwards and one of the NBA’s best scoring big men in Karl-Anthony Towns. But will the Towns–Rudy Gobert frontcourt jell? Will Jaden McDaniels, already a terrific defender, become more of a two-way player? This is the kind of season that could be shockingly good in ’Sota or unbearably bad.
21. Orlando Magic
I’m thisclose to becoming a full-blown Orlando truther. Paolo Banchero is a beast, Franz Wagner is a 20-point scorer/high-30s three-point shooter waiting to happen and the Magic have a roster loaded with young talent around them. If Markelle Fultz can (a) stay healthy and (b) stay above 30% from three-point range, this team could rocket up the rankings quickly.
22. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a few keepers, with Walker Kessler solidifying the center position and Lauri Markkanen developing into an All-Star. Utah took a flyer on John Collins, hoping Will Hardy’s plans for a plus-sized frontcourt will get Collins back to the high-scoring/high-efficiency player he was early in Atlanta. CEO Danny Ainge isn’t in any rush, which means the Jazz could be sellers (Kelly Olynyk, anyone?) before the trade deadline. But if they stand pat, this team has the talent to be in the play-in mix.
23. Chicago Bulls
Chicago’s lackluster preseason won’t quiet critics that believe this team has a low ceiling. The Bulls know what they will get from a healthy Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević. Can Patrick Williams, who was among the extension-eligible fourth-year players not to get a contract extension this week, make a leap? Can Coby White? Will Chicago make a midseason deal to add talent, or will the Bulls eventually tear it down?
24. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors, like the Bulls, are at a crossroads. There’s enough talent in Toronto to compete for a play-in spot but plenty of reason to offload an expensive star (Pascal Siakam, whose relationship with the Raptors just feels weird) in favor of a rebuild. Scottie Barnes had an outstanding preseason for the Raps and looks ready to shake off a so-so second year, and Dennis Schröder, fresh off a brilliant run at the World Cup, could be an offseason steal. But Toronto’s front office needs to choose a direction.
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25. Detroit Pistons
How bad have things gotten in Detroit? The Pistons have not won more than 23 games in the last four seasons and last year bottomed out with 17. Depressing. A healthy Cade Cunningham will be surrounded by some pretty good young talent (Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey), and Monty Williams has a history of success developing these types of teams. Cracking 30 wins is a realistic goal.
26. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have plenty of scoring (LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier), and the Ball–Brandon Miller duo should have some fun moments in transition. But can they stay healthy? Ball played 36 games last season, and Hayward has not played more than 50 in any of his three seasons in Charlotte. Miles Bridges, who will be suspended for the first 10 games of the season after pleading no-contest to a domestic violence charge in 2022, is a wild card. If Bridges returns looking anything like the 20-point-per-game scorer he was in ’21–22, the Buzz will be a nightmare on the open floor.
27. Houston Rockets
The Rockets debut low in the rankings, but expect them to be steady climbers. Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks bring a defensive intensity that was sorely lacking last season, and Ime Udoka will drill defense into the rest of them. Jalen Green is already a big-time scorer, and Amen Thompson looks like he has elite two-way potential. There will be some bumpy moments—and probably some very pointed public criticism from Udoka—early but this is the kind of team that could play .500 ball in the second half of the season.
28. San Antonio Spurs
So … who’s excited about Victor Wembanyama?
29. Portland Trail Blazers
Joe Cronin got (deserved) praise for his handling of the Lillard trade, but draft picks can’t play, at least not this season. Portland has a nice core of Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, and Deandre Ayton looks ecstatic to be anywhere but Phoenix. What will Cronin do with the rest of the roster? Can he find a taker for Jerami Grant? Will Malcolm Brogdon be on the move? Does Robert Williams III make any sense alongside Ayton? The Blazers aren’t done dealing.
30. Washington Wizards
The video that made the rounds on social media of a wide-open Deni Avdija waving at Jordan Poole before a white-hot Poole took a contested jumper is a pretty good preview of what this season could be like in Washington. Poole looks ready to break out in his first season as a first option. But how will Poole’s shoot first (and second … and third) mentality play on a team with other young talent it needs to develop? Could be a long season in Washington.
