With seeding up in the air until the last day of the regular season, the NBA’s play-in tournament field is finally set. In the East, the Nets will face the Cavaliers in the No. 7-No. 8 game, with the winner advancing to the postseason. The loser will face the winner of the Hawks and Hornets, who finished 9th and 10th, respectively. In the West, the Wolves will get the Clippers at home, and the team who doesn’t advance will get another shot against the winner of the Pelicans and Spurs. With the tourney set, here’s one thing to look for in each game.
Cavaliers at Nets: Which Cleveland Defense Will Show Up?
For the season, Cleveland will finish with the sixth-best defense in the NBA. Concerns swirled over the summer about the awkward fit of rookie Evan Mobley with Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markannen, but the Cavs acquitted themselves. Their length was in fact an asset. The problem? That defense hasn’t been good since the All-Star break, during which time Cleveland’s defense has actually been seventh-worst in the league. The culprit is largely injuries, Allen’s in particular. The All-Star big man hasn’t played since March 6, zapping much of the Cavs’ effectiveness. With Allen’s status up in the air for Tuesday (and it’s not looking good), Cleveland is in a tough spot trying to slow down Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If the defense can have a throwback performance, and the Cavs’ length can shrink the floor against Brooklyn’s spacey attack, they may have a puncher’s chance. The Nets will rightfully be heavy favorites, though.
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Clippers at Wolves: Can KAT Punish Small Lineups?
Minnesota’s reward for their first postseason action since the departure of Jimmy Butler is a Clippers team that only recently got back Paul George and Norm Powell. (PG has looked great after missing over three months with an elbow injury, leading the Clips to a 4–1 record while shooting lights out from three.) LA will have bigs to throw at Karl-Anthony Towns if Ty Lue chooses, with Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein both up to the task. At the same time, Lue often leverages the Clips’ wing depth to go small, and how KAT performs in those situations could determine Minnesota’s success here. Towns is not a prolific back-to-the-basket player or a particularly efficient one. His deadliness comes from the outside, which actually plays into the hands of the Clippers’ small-ball ethos. The Wolves will be in a tough position if they get roped into a three-point shootout with the Clips. If Towns is able to punish L.A. inside—whether it’s points or on the boards—that could help take away a key advantage for Lue.
Hornets at Hawks: An Old-Fashioned Shootout
Both Charlotte and Atlanta finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. This game is going to come down to which team can outlast the other. The Hornets will be without Gordon Hayward, though they will miss him less than the Hawks miss John Collins, who hasn’t played since March 11 with foot and finger injuries. If Collins plays, Atlanta becomes much more difficult to beat. The division rivals split their season series, with the Hornets winning the most recent matchup on March 16, holding Trae Young to only nine points through some aggressive trapping. No matter who is on the floor, expect both of these teams to score a ton on one another. If one of them can manage even a brief series of stops, that will be the difference.
Spurs at Pelicans: Can San Antonio Slow Down McCollum and Ingram?
Post All-Star break, C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram have played 264 minutes together, and in that time, the Pelicans have posted a 118.0 offensive rating, a better mark than this year’s best offense. The Spurs will need to find an answer for them defensively, especially because McCollum and Ingram are both three-level scorers who can thrive when games slow down. San Antonio’s best chance may be to speed up New Orleans. Even if the Pelicans have a better offense, they don’t play with a particularly high pace. The more the Spurs can get out in transition, the better chance they’ll have to find the easy scores they need to keep up. These are not the Pelicans you remember from pumpkin spice season, though. Post All-Star, New Orleans had the fifth-best net rating in the NBA, ahead of the likes of the Heat, 76ers, Bucks and Jazz. New Orleans’s turnaround after a 3–16 start has been remarkable. And especially since acquiring C.J., the Pels have been one of the better teams in the league.
