As has been outlined by several people now, the NBA seems to have undergone a not-so-subtle downturn in scoring, roughly since the All-Star break.
Tom Haberstroh has been all over this topic on his Substack. As has Ethan Strauss. You may have heard about it on a podcast from Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo. The NBA even sent Joe Dumars and Monty McCutchen on Zach Lowe’s podcast to discuss the league-wide dip in scoring, and whether the NBA itself was responsible. ESPN would later report the league office even sent a memo to teams outlining an increased focus on eliminating foul hunting, which could be the reason for scoring going down.
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The gist of all this, really, is simple. Whether the league put its thumb on the scale or not (they almost definitely did), referees are calling fewer fouls. Scoring has tightened. And most importantly, in my opinion, the games have gotten a lot better.
For exactly how much the foul rate has reduced, I recommend Haberstroh, who has broken down in great detail over multiple stories how sharp the decline in the free throw rate is, and some of its effects on the game. The league seems to be trying to distance itself publicly from the idea that they specifically told refs to call fewer fouls.
Frankly, I personally don’t care whether or not Dumars or Adam Silver or the people who respond to the NBA referee X (formerly known as Twitter) account want to take credit for the resulting style of play. I just want to say how much I love the current version of the game, and I hope it's the norm going forward.
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports
I understand people who are concerned about the league perhaps trying to manipulate scoring. And there’s a gambling angle here that I have no interest in diving into. I just think what we’ve seen in games since the All-Star break (seemingly the inflection point for The Great Reduction) is how the NBA should be called all the time. Which brings me to the real point of contention here: consistency.
What matters to me less are directives from the league. It would be naive to think Silver doesn’t have an opinion on the quality of day-to-day games. What’s important is that everyone is on the same page about how things will be called, and that they will be called the same way moving forward.
And for the most part, teams seem to have adjusted! Are certain players perhaps a little perturbed on a given night with the level of physicality? Sure, but many stars are going to complain about calls no matter what. That’s part of the gamesmanship of the, uh, game. I do think the new level of physicality (obviously very broadly speaking here) has added a little bit of an edge to these last few weeks of the season. The games feel more intense. And it’s plausible to see a team win by getting stops.
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I’m not some get-off-my-lawn, get-rid-of-the-three-point-line fundamentalist. It’s great how sophisticated NBA offenses have become. Teams should be smart about maximizing efficiency every time down the floor. At the same time, I’m sick of the moments when playing good defense either feels impossible or futile. Do I need an offensive player to get two free throws every time they drive and initiate contact with their shoulder on someone in an otherwise good position? I really don’t!
Again, if this actually is the new normal, then it should be celebrated. It’s unfair to say scoring became too easy. But playing defense was probably becoming a little too difficult. Is it “fair” to, in the middle of the season, dramatically change the style of play by allowing more physicality? Maybe not. As long as it continues, though, then at least it will be a level playing field for everyone.
In fact, my biggest fear is whoever is in charge of the foul dip pulling a 180. I remember a few years ago when one of the officiating focuses was eliminating some of the bad-faith shooting fouls—like jumping backward or sideways into a defender. I reported a piece on it, and while perimeter stoppers such as Mikal Bridges and Joe Ingles liked the new focus, they were worried the league wouldn’t stick with it for the whole season.
What remains to be seen is if the current free-throw reduction continues, both through the playoffs and into next season. Whoever made the decision, though, I applaud you. Because the games have improved as a result.
