Election forecaster Nate Silver updated his model on Tuesday to reflect the surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris, who now ties or leads Donald Trump in most recent battleground state polling. According to Silver's Silver Bulletin polling average, which accounts for poll reliability, sample size and recency, Harris leads Trump in the presidential race by 3.1 points, 46.8% to 43.7%.
"We've seen momentum for Harris with her rising consistently to about a 2.5% lead in national polls," Silver said on MSNBC, identifying the main cause of the shift as the age issue that had mainly afflicted President Joe Biden. With Biden out of the race, it's Trump who is the oldest major-party candidate in history.
