September Nymex natural gas (NGU23) on Thursday closed -0.196 (-6.62%).
Nat-gas prices Thursday plunged after weekly EIA nat-gas supplies rose more than expected. Also, a cooler U.S. weather forecast weighed on nat-gas prices as the cooler temperatures will curb nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air conditioning. EIA nat-gas inventories last week rose +29 bcf, above expectations of +24 bcf. The Commodity Weather Group said the latest forecasts for August 15-19 show below-average temperatures moving into the Midwest and normal temperatures across the East Coast while the Southwest remains hot.
On Wednesday, nat-gas prices soared to a 5-1/2 month high after European nat-gas price surged more than +28% to a 1-3/4 month high when LNG workers in Australia voted to strike, which could tighten global nat-gas supplies. Inspired Plc predicts Asian LNG buyers "would likely bid up LNG imports" to replace Australian volumes if workers strike. Australia is the world's third-largest liquified natural gas (LNG) exporter.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was 100.7 bcf/day (+3.6% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Thursday was 74.6 bcf/day, -2.5% y/y, according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Thursday were 12.6 bcf/day or +1.1% w/w.
Nat-gas prices continue to be undercut by high inventories caused by weak heating demand during the abnormally mild winter. This past winter's warm temperatures caused nat-gas inventories to rise in Europe and the United States. Gas storage across Europe was 87% full as of August 6, well above the 5-year seasonal average of 73% full for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas inventories as of August 4 were +11.2% above their 5-year seasonal average.
A decrease in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended August 5 fell -0.8% y/y to 95,336 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending August 5 fell -1.6% y/y to 4,061,687 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report of +29 bcf for the week ended August 4 was bearish for nat-gas prices since it was above the estimate of +24 bcf. Also, as of August 4, nat-gas inventories were up +21.2% y/y and +11.2% above their 5-year seasonal average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended August 4 was unchanged at 128 rigs, modestly above the 1-1/4 year low of 124 rigs from the week of June 30. Active rigs rose to a 3-3/4 year high of 166 rigs in September 2022. Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
