Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country. Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, aided by material support from Russia and China. However, today the military finds itself increasingly on the back foot, having lost dozens of outposts, bases, and strategic cities that even its leaders concede will be challenging to regain.
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, leading to intensified fighting with long-established armed groups associated with Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups and sparking the formation of new pro-democracy militias. Until the launch of Operation 1027, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three powerful ethnic armed groups — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. They quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state. Subsequently, other militia groups and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) joined in around the country.
A year into the offensive, resistance forces now control a vast horseshoe of territory stretching from Rakhine state in the west, across the north, and then south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has retreated toward the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city of Yangon.
Many anticipate the military launching a counteroffensive when the rainy season ends, bolstered by an influx of some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its continued air superiority. However, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city in the country's center.
As the military faces setbacks on the ground, it increasingly relies on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a significant increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and artillery since the 1027 offensive began. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, with over 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar and approximately 18.6 million people in need, according to the U.N.
If the military regime falls, there could be challenges due to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless groups work to resolve political and territorial differences. The influence of neighboring China further complicates the situation, as it is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive to curb organized crime activities along its border. China's attempts to negotiate a ceasefire were short-lived, and its efforts to end the fighting have so far been unsuccessful.
