Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime's military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country. The military's control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. However, today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases, and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar's ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy. The army's takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People's Defense Forces, supporting the opposition National Unity Government.
Operation 1027, launched a year ago, brought coordinated attacks from three powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, quickly capturing towns and overrunning military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state. Since then, other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country, pushing Myanmar's military back towards central Myanmar.
Resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory, starting in Rakhine state in the west, running across the north, and heading south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back towards central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
Despite some recent setbacks, the military is expected to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season ends, bolstered by new troops and air superiority. However, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, gaining strength, experience, and confidence over the last year.
As the military faces setbacks on the ground, it increasingly relies on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a significant increase in civilian casualties. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, with the humanitarian outlook for the next year being grim.
The offensive has eased pressure in some areas but has also brought new tensions between resistance groups, as militias advance out of their ethnic areas. The influence of neighboring China further complicates the political picture, with attempts to negotiate ceasefires and end the fighting.
