Activists working on behalf of Myanmar’s persecuted Rohingya minority say "hundreds" of refugees were killed on August 5 when they were bombed while trying to cross the river marking the border with Bangladesh. Many of the Rohingya in Myanmar’s Rakhine state had sought refuge in Maungdaw, a town on the river. The town, still in the hands of the Myanmar government, has become a death trap for civilians as rebels lay siege. Our team analysed images of the massacre and spoke to a survivor. While the origin of the strike is still unknown, we were able to determine that dozens were indeed killed, including seven siblings from the same family.
Maungdaw, a town on the banks of the Naf river, which marks the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh, is one of the last bastions of Myanmar government forces in the state of Rakhine, which has otherwise been taken over by rebels. The town is being held by soldiers from the Myanmar Army as well as several Rohingya militia groups (RSO, ARSA). Since April, however, the town has been completely encircled and under siege by rebels from the rebel Arakan Army.
Rohingya bloggers and activists have been posting about a massacre they claim was perpetrated by the Arakan Army on August 5. They said that the rebel group used a drone to bomb Rohingya civilians who were trying to cross the river to reach Bangladesh. They said hundreds of civilians were killed. Our team was able to analyse videos that confirmed that dozens of members of this religious minority died in the airstrike, though we were unable to determine its origin.
Does this footage document a war crime?
Our team analysed footage of the strike posted on X on August 6.
One video, filmed before the drone strike, shows civilians – men, women and children – gathering with their belongings alongside a wall that runs alongside the Naf River. They are on both sides of the wall, some of them standing near boats.
The wall is visible on Google Earth, located 500 metres to the west of the town of Maungdaw on the Naf River.
Another video filmed later on August 5 shows dozens of bodies on the ground near the same wall. Our team counted 18 lifeless bodies, including three who appear to be children. It is impossible to confirm the total number of casualties using only these images.
A third video shows the same scene of carnage from a different angle. Using the 3D imaging software PeakVisor, we were able to confirm that all three of these videos were filmed along the banks of the Naf River. The same mountainous backdrop appears in each of them and, furthermore, it matches the landscape shown in PeakVisor.
Moreover, the account @JohnSevenTwo, which is a contributor to the investigative collective Geoconfirmed, also geolocated these images to the same spot. They were able to identify the location by matching the curvature of the road and the presence of a gate.
While video analysis enabled us to determine the location of the bodies, it is harder to identify the actors in this conflict.
Difficult to identify the actors
While Rohingya bloggers say that the Arakan Army was responsible for the massacre, the group denies all responsibility. In a statement published on August 7 on their website and on their Telegram channel, the militia wrote: "We respectfully announce that these deaths did not occur in areas under our control and are not related to our organisation.”
The Arakan Army accused the junta and its allies, including the Rohingya militias ARSA and RSO. According to the rebel group, these actors “are using weapons and manpower to intimidate and prevent innocent civilians from reaching safe places”.
For online investigator @MyanmarWarMap, an independent analyst who has maps the evolution of the conflict in Myanmar, it is hard to identify who is responsible:
Perhaps the Arakan Army deliberately shot at civilians to prevent them from fleeing. On the other hand, we also can’t exclude the possibility that Rohingya militias and the junta might have shot at civilians to prevent them from crossing the river and reaching Bangladesh. We also can’t exclude the theory of an accidental strike from one of these actors. It is also possible that the Arakan Army shot at this zone because the junta’s troops or Rohingya militiamen were present amongst the civilians.
"Seven of my children were killed during the bombing”
A few days after the tragedy, our team was able to speak with a survivor. Forty-year-old Shom Gida managed to reach Bangladesh and one of the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazaar, from where she told us about the horror of August 5. Like other survivors who spoke to the media, she said that she saw an aircraft that dropped three large projectiles:
We were gathered by the Naf River, waiting to flee towards Bangladesh. There weren’t any armed men in the crowd. It was just people who wanted to evacuate the town. The town was really dangerous. There were drone strikes happening all the time. Men from the Arakan Army were trying to force civilians into trucks to bring us elsewhere. But even so, they wouldn’t let us flee from the town.
The bombing on the bank of the river began around 4pm. We heard a drone that started flying over us, like a helicopter. Then, after about five minutes, it started to fire at us. The drone fired three times. I saw what looked like a flash of lightning and then I heard explosions. The group was also hit with rocket fire. The noise was terrible. In the bombing, I lost seven children. Four boys and three of my girls. Several hundred Rohingya died. Their bodies are in Maungdaw – they haven’t been buried yet.
At the other end of the line, Shom Gida stops speaking and begins to cry, thinking about the loss of her children. She pauses for a few long seconds, then continues to tell the story of her escape.
On the morning of August 6, I got into a dinghy to cross the river. The boat got about 300 metres from the bank when a drone fired a grenade that hit the boat. I was injured, though not seriously. I drifted down the river, unconscious, before I was picked up on the Bangladeshi side of the river. I don’t know what I will do now. I don’t want to live in Bangladesh. I will definitely try to go to another country.
Shom Gida’s account didn’t enable us to establish who was responsible for the strike. While the military junta has Chinese-made CH-3 military drones, the Arakan Army uses drones, as well, but of a smaller size. Other victims of the bombings also described a drone strike to journalists from news agencies Reuters and AP.
What will happen to Maungdaw?
The Arakan Army continues to deny that they carried out strikes on civilians. The armed group took to its YouTube channel to post videos that they say shows their men helping to evacuate civilians from the town.
According to MyanmarWarMap, an expert in open source intelligence (OSINT), the siege of Maungdaw is nearing its end:
Over the past two weeks, the Myanmar Army has been using boats to bring supplies into the town. But things have changed in the past few days. On the morning of Monday, August 5, the Arakan Army took control of one of the last ports under control by the junta. Now, the junta is down to its last port. Violent fighting is occurring to the west of the town [...].
It’s almost certain that the entire town will soon be under the Arakan Army’s control. The only question that remains is how long that will take and if more blood will be spilled. Unfortunately, it is looking likely that the city’s defenders will fight to the last, which could lead to the deaths of many civilians. The best scenario would be if the soldiers of the junta surrender, because then they might open a civilian corridor so people can flee, even if the Rohingya militias ARSA and RSO continue to fight.
