The Welsh Government decision in 2021 to include transport in its new Ministry of Climate Change was met with surprise and some scepticism. Wales was the first European country to make climate change the responsibility of a specific minister and so consider climate change as a primary criterion in transport policy and planning.
Transport had until then been seen by the Welsh Government as related to inward investment and employment particularly in a country on the edge of Europe and, unfortunately, outside the European Union market. Wales had lost its preferred EU investment grant position to the accession states of eastern EU. I saw this happen when working on EU projects between 1991 and 2010; it was quite understandable that transport investment would transfer to those states because it is a ‘top-4’ criterion for inward investment which the EU directed towards lower GDP per head countries.
It seemed our government had lost its way. However, that foresight now reflects changing conditions internationally.
While we still need inward investment, some forecasters suggest the world’s natural resources depletion rate may make future life on earth exceptionally difficult. Compared to my visit to the Peru / Amazon rainforest in 1984 with its thick forestation, the reports now being received show substantial depletion of a major means of carbon dioxide reduction.
Car manufacturers for some years toyed with electric car development but changes in diesel and petrol vehicle legislation have stimulated their research and production investment’. However these will only convert into air pollution reduction through increased production and consequent reduction in sales prices.
The international electric car market has been dominated by Tesla (0.9m electric cars produced in 2021; up from only 2,600 in 2012). However this month two of the world’s biggest car manufacturers, Ford Motor Company and Volkswagen (VW), have announced major changes in production.
VW began developing electric cars in 1970 and their current advertising says clearly that ’their future is electric’. Its high-performance R-brand cars (one of which, I admit, is my Scirocco) will become all-electric by 2030 and Klaus Zellmer (Passenger Sales Director) is reported as saying VW will end petrol/diesel car production in Europe by 2033. Last year, VW produced 8.9m cars including 0.3m electric vehicles
Ford CEO Jim Farley announced last month that global production of electric cars will be 600,000 annually by 2023, General Motors say their production will be 1m electric cars annually in 2025. The Ford Fiesta, the company’s most popular car, is reported (though not confirmed by Ford) to be discontinued in 2023 fitting in with UK and EU bans on new petrol and diesel car production.
A zero-emissions technology, not new to buses, trams and railways, has recently been applied to motorway heavy goods vehicles (HGV) movements. Battery power used for buses in, for example, Cardiff, Newport and soon on TrawsCymru’s Aberystwyth – Carmarthen service cannot be used because of the higher weight and distance elements on long-distance HGV’s .
A plan from Costain (the construction company), Siemens (rail infrastructure) and Scania (the truck manufacturers is being considered by England’s DfT. It involves creating on both inside lanes of the most intensively used parts of the motorway / trunk-road network, overhead gantries similar to those on the South Wales Main Line from Cardiff to London. Trucks would have a pantograph fixed to the cab roof similar to trams / trains. The technology is already in use on Aldi lorries between Frankfurt and Darmstadt while the British experiment is planned for the M180 between Immingham port and Doncaster freight hub.
The UK government rationale for abandoning an oil company ‘windfall’ tax is that the companies’ need to invest in North Sea oil might be questioned. How much new investment will be needed, and over what period, if petrol / diesel vehicle production for the UK market is to be significantly reduced?
The UK is of course represented at the United Nations COP 27 conference at the Sharm el – Sheikh resort in Egypt where countries responsible for poor air quality meet to plan ways of reducing the causes. The Welsh Government proposes, for example, cutting road building and introducing a 20-mph default speed limit. Very different ideas (though not agreed by all industry sectors) from those of the UK Government. They should be clearly represented at COP 27.
The Welsh Government has made a clear decision in using its transport powers to reduce carbon emissions which threaten our lives. However, this column would hope that will not obviate the important role transport plays in attracting inward investment employment into Wales.
Professor Stuart Cole, CBE, is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy), University of South Wales
