Mountain West Football: First Look at the New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies outperformed expectations last year. Can they do it again while contending with two Mountain West opponents?
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New Mexico State’s staying power will be tested.
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New MExico Football: First Look At 2023 Non-conference Opponents
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You don’t get many opportunities to put “New Mexico State” and “winning football” together in the same sentence, but things are looking up in the southern part of the Land of Enchantment after the Aggies secured just their fourth winning season since 1999.
Not only does NMSU have a new conference to call home, they enter 2023 with bragging rights in the Rio Grande Rivalry against New Mexico and notched their first-ever victory over Hawaii. With both the Lobos and Warriors on the docket once again, will they be able to maintain their upper hand against the Mountain West?
Location: Las Cruces, New Mexico
Conference: Conference USA
Series History: Hawaii leads the all-time series against New Mexico State, 10-1, while New Mexico holds a 73-34-5 advantage over the Aggies.
2022 Record: 7-6
Head Coach: Jerry Kill (second year; 7-6 at New Mexico State, 165-110 overall). At first glance, bringing Kill to NMSU seems like an odd choice since health concerns had prompted him to step aside at Minnesota back in 2015. After stints at Rutgers and Virginia Tech, as well as a brief run as interim head coach at TCU in 2021, that decision looked shaky at midseason when their record sat at 1-5 but a big win over the rival Lobos, coupled with a quarterback commitment and a strong defense, spurred a second-half surge.
With road wins against UMass and Liberty, as well as a pair of home romps against FCS opponents, NMSU finished 5-1 and earned a Quick Lane Bowl bid, where they defeated Bowling Green. It marked another feather in Kill’s cap, as he had previously built winning programs at Saginaw Valley State, Southern Illinois, and Minnesota, among other places, but now comes an even higher bar to clear: Get the Aggies back-to-back winning campaigns for the first time since 1966-67.
Key Players
Diego Pavia, QB
After transferring in from New Mexico Military Institute, it took a little while for Pavia to find his footing under center. He appeared in eight games and made eight starts but finished 2022 with a flourish, throwing multiple touchdowns in five of the team’s last six games while rushing for 508 yards and six scores. In all, he completed 53.2% of his 190 attempts for 1,1450 yards and 13 touchdowns with a 3.1% interception rate, posting an overall PFF grade of 82.9 which ranked 30th among FBS quarterbacks. He’ll be a centerpiece of whatever NMSU accomplishes this fall.
Diego Pavia ➡️ Kordell David 🟰 TOUCHDOWN
It's allllll Aggies right now as we lead 28-7 just before the half #AggieUp pic.twitter.com/CbieKjZy8j
— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) November 26, 2022
Star Thomas, RB
Though he only made one start for the Aggies last season, Thomas appeared in all 13 games and was arguably their best running back. It’s not just because he led the team with 520 rushing yards while scoring five touchdowns, either, since he chipped in with 12 catches for 151 yards and three more scores, as well. Listed at six feet tall and 225 pounds, he’s a rugged athlete who should continue to lead a surprisingly deep crew of NMSU runners.
Izaiah Reed, DL
When the Aggies needed a big play in the trenches last year, Reed was the most likely player to deliver one. He collected 21 tackles, including five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks, and returns for 2023 as one of NMSU’s few established veterans on the defensive side of the ball.
Shiyazh Pete, OT
One of two freshmen to crack the starting five in the trenches early last year, Pete’s first full season saw him protect Pavia’s blindside through 11 starts, allowing only one sack with four penalties in over 500 snaps. At this point, it seems likely he’ll be a pillar on the offensive line for the next few years.
Andre Seldon, CB
Seldon transferred to NMSU from Michigan last off-season and took on the nickelback role, thriving with 44 total tackles, five pass breakups, and one interception. Considering that much of the secondary will be retooled around him this fall, he could be in line to be much more productive across the board.
.@NMStateFootball 𝘒𝘦𝘺 𝘗𝘭𝘢𝘺𝘴 🎥⤵️
Highlights from the Aggies 37 point win today to give them wins in 4/5.
Bowl chances are still alive!
🏈 @AndreSeldonjr
🏈 @diegopavia02
🏈 @Star4Thomas
🏈 @MakhilynY @NMStateAggies | #AggieUp pic.twitter.com/HpL2CJ3eU7— Adam Young (@youngpbp) November 13, 2022
Overview:
Offense
It took a little time for the Aggies offense to figure things out in 2022, but there’s little doubt they improved as the season wore on: In the team’s first eight games, they averaged 4.82 yards per play; in the last six contests, that average jumped to 6.86. In averaging 1.85 points per drive and earning 39.7% of available yards per drive, NMSU’s offense had its best season-long performance since 2017.
Granted, some of the improvement probably came as a result of facing some lackluster defenses, but it isn’t hard to envision New Mexico State holding onto most of those gains in Conference USA with a majority of last year’s starters back for another go. Pavia is set at quarterback while Thomas leads a committee that also includes Jamoni Jones, Ahmonte Watkins, and Tim Gans, not bad considering that quartet combined for 21 total touchdowns in 2022.
The Aggies also return just about every pass catcher of note save for Justice Powers, last year’s leader in receiving yards. That includes five different players who caught at least ten passes, like sophomore slot receiver Jonathan Brady (23 catches, 310 yards, three touchdowns) and senior Kordell David (24-343-4).
Similarly, the left side of the offensive line returns with center Canaan Yarro and guard AJ Vaipulu joining Pete to form a nucleus that could grow together over the next couple years. If they can repeat some of last year’s strong numbers, like a 2.2% sack rate allowed which ranked sixth in the country, this offense could outperform last year’s.
Defense
This side of the ball was where last year’s Aggies really made their name, finishing 79th nationally in points per drive allowed and 69th in available yards percentage allowed. They also gave up just 5.01 yards per play, far and away the program’s lowest average dating back to 2009, but now must prove they can do it again while replacing stars like Trevor Brohard, Chris Ojoh, and Lazarus Williams.
Reinforcing the pass rush will be a top priority since Reed and sophomore linebacker Gabe Peterson are the only two returning Aggies who had two or more sacks in 2022. An infusion of talent from the transfer portal could do the trick, though, with defensive tackle Dion Wilson Jr. (19 tackles, one sack at Arizona), linebacker Jamari Buddin (Penn State), and juco transfer Denver Warren competing with younger holdovers Peterson, Nikhil Webb Walker, and Keyshawn Eliot for reps.
Seldon and safety Dylan Early (41 tackles, four pass breakups) provide some starting experience in the secondary, but the situation here is mostly as the same as it closer to the line of scrimmage. At least one familiar name, former Wyoming nickelback Keonte Glinton (26 tackles, four pass breakups) could make a difference here, but he’s one among more transfers — Jordan Vincent (Eastern Illinois) and Myles Rowser (Campbell) are others — who will look to carve out a role.
Early Predictions
New Mexico State won’t catch opponents by surprise anymore, but despite substantial losses on defense, Kill and his coaching staff earned a little benefit of the doubt about their ability to win winnable games. Even if UNM and Hawaii figure to be a little better themselves, they still have substantial questions of their own. NMSU will play both games on the road, so don’t expect runaway victories in any case.
New Mexico 28, New Mexico State 24
New Mexico State 34, Hawaii 24
