THE majority of Scots want to see a second independence referendum within the next 10 years – and believe Holyrood should have the power to hold one, a new poll has found.
The Survation survey, commissioned by Angus Robertson’s firm Progress Scotland, also reported that the majority of Scots (56%) think the country will be independent within 20 years.
Less than one-third of Scots adults (31%) said they think Scotland will never become independent.
For the first question, the poll asked: “Thinking about the balance of power between the Westminster Parliament and Scottish Parliament, which parliament should have power to call a referendum on Scottish independence?”
As it stands, Scotland cannot hold a legal referendum without Westminster consent after a Supreme Court ruling definitively answered the question of legal competence in November 2022.
Survation’s second question asked people to reflect on when they believe Scotland may become independent.
Among respondents:
- 6% said within the next two years
- 13% said within two-five years
- 21% said within five-10 years
- 16% said within 10-20 years
- 14% said more than 20 years
- And 31% said never
The results mean that 56% of Scots think the country will be independent by 2044, and 70% believe it will leave the UK eventually.
Survation then asked when people believe a second vote should take place.
Among respondents:
- 18% said within the next two years
- 20% said within two-five years
- 17% said within five-10 years
- 10% said within 10-20 years
- 9% said more than 20 years
- And 25% said never
The results means that 55% of Scots want to see a second referendum within 10 years, and 65% within 20 years.
Commenting, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “It is neither sustainable or credible for Westminster to continue deny democracy in Scotland.
“With the Labour Westminster government continuing to inflict the same cruel austerity agenda on people across Scotland, it is clear Scots know they deserve a chance to build a better future as an independent country.
“Whether it’s the NHS, schools, the cost of living or energy prices, independence is the solution to the concerns of people in Scotland and the SNP is focussed on making the merits of campaign clear to everyone in Scotland.”
The poll comes after a series of others which have also been published around the 10th anniversary of the 2014 referendum, which saw No win by 55% to 45%.
On Tuesday, a YouGov poll reported that support for independence remained about the same as it did a decade ago. However, if independence meant rejoining the EU then 56% of people would vote Yes, while just 32% would vote No.
An Opinium poll over the weekend also reported a lead for No, but found that Scots support Holyrood and not Westminster having the power to hold independence referendums.
Survation polled 2059 Scottish adults between September 10 and 13, 2024.
Progress Scotland is a limited company controlled by Constitution Secretary Robertson.
