On a crisp November day in central Moscow, residents of the Russian capital walk along its elegant, colourful streets, browsing cheerfully in shop windows under a bright silver sky. Winter here in Russia can be bleak and gloomy, but many Muscovites out enjoying the final days of Autumn are doing so in the belief that there is a glimmer of light in the months ahead.
The reason for their optimism? The return of Donald Trump to the White House might, Russians hope, end the continuous decline in relations between the Washington and the Kremlin since the war in Ukraine began. Perhaps the return of a familiar, friendlier voice in the White House could even bring an end to the conflict that many here in Moscow seem desperate to put behind them.
One man I spoke to was confident relations with America would improve. “Generally, in the period of the last Trump administration we didn’t have disagreements,” he said. “That’s why I think all current conflicts if there are any will be resolved.”
The president-elect has previously boasted that he could end the war within 24 hours of taking office. Another man here was skeptical about that possibility but remained cautiously optimistic. “I don’t think he can directly stop the war,” he told me. “But I feel he can set ultimatums to both sides, which will definitely bring this conflict closer to an end.”
Exactly how that conflict might be ended is another matter, but logic suggests that any resolution would likely favour Russia.
Media here have not attempted to hide their glee at the prospect of a White House less sympathetic to Ukraine. On one of the country’s main talk shows, the hosts discussed a social media post from Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, warning Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that his ‘allowance’ from the US would soon run out. The overriding message is that the aid on which Ukraine’s war effort depends may soon dry up.
The outlook for Kyiv under such circumstances could scarcely be starker. The Ukrainians openly acknowledge that, without US aid, their military operations would quickly become unsustainable. This week Ukraine’s military said it is now facing off against as many as 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops massing in Russia’s Kursk region, but also claims to be inflicting record losses on them. There is a palpable sense of a war that could be moving into a new and deadly phase, and little evidence of an appetite for compromise on either side.
Amidst all of this, reports of dialogue with the Trump camp have emerged. According to the Washington Post, Trump and Vladimir Putin have already been in touch since the election, reports that the Kremlin vehemently denies.
Likewise, Trump has reportedly also spoken to Volodymyr Zelensky by phone in recent days, and was even joined by Elon Musk. Such conversations would certainly represent a break from convention, and a desire to get things done fast; but neither respect for convention nor patience are characteristics one tends to associate with this president-elect.
The devil will of course be in the details, and any agreement that would satisfy both Moscow and Kyiv feels like a remote prospect. More than two years and eight months since the war in Ukraine began, however, it is fair to say that many on both sides yearn for its conclusion. “We all want that,” one woman on the streets of Moscow told me.” We really want that the war will stop now. This situation is impossible. I hope we get to a mutual understanding.”
* Fred Pleitgen is Senior International Correspondent with CNN
