Moscow is bracing for economic panic when markets open on Monday morning, with the value of the rouble expected to plummet at least 25% after the US and European Union announced unprecedented sanctions over the weekend.
Those measures targeted the Russian central bank, which has intervened to prop up the value of the rouble following Vladimir Putin’s order to invade Ukraine. They also marked the first time Russian banks have been excluded from the Swift international payments system.
Major Russian banks such as Sberbank and VTB Bank have assured their customers that they will be able to access their rouble deposits and make exchanges into foreign currencies like dollars and euros.
But the European Central Bank said on Monday morning that Sberbank Europe, a fully-owned subsidiary of Sberbank Russia, which in turn is majority owned by the Russian state, is failing or likely to fail along with its Croatian and Slovenian units.
“Sberbank Europe AG and its subsidiaries experienced significant deposit outflows as a result of the reputational impact of geopolitical tensions,” the ECB said in a statement. “This led to a deterioration of its liquidity position.
“There are no available measures with a realistic chance of restoring this position at group level and in each of its subsidiaries within the banking union.”
The economic turbulence – which also saw the price of Brent crude oil futures spike 7% on Monday – will mark a key moment when the gravity of the crisis in Ukraine hits home for many ordinary Russians.
“It will be something we have not seen before,” said Sergei Guriev, economics professor at France’s Sciences Po and former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist.
Videos circulated on social media of long lines at some Russian ATMs on Sunday morning, although the rush for currency is expected to begin in earnest on Monday as markets open.
There are already signs that the value of the rouble has tumbled. By Sunday evening, Russia’s Tinkoff Bank was buying dollars for 89 roubles and selling them for 154, nearly double the price just three weeks ago.
The sanctioning of Russia’s central bank, which experts called “unprecedented”, could halt or limit interventions to prop up the value of the currency, making it harder to insulate Russians from the economic backlash of the invasion.
“Sanctioning the central bank is unprecedented,” said Maria Shagina of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and the Geneva International Sanctions Network. “I think for one of the largest economies in the world – the size matters here. Previously it was only Iran, Venezuela, Syria that were under a maximum-pressure campaign.”
Some details of the sanctions remain unclear, and it is possible that western governments will make exceptions for oil and gas payments.
But the sanctions on the Russian central bank, which could see a significant portion of its $630bn (£470bn) in reserves frozen in G7 countries, mark a quantum leap in the west’s sanctions campaign over the Russian invasion into Ukraine.
“There’s a psychological and reputational effect because now everyone just doesn’t want to deal with Russia in general,” said Shagina.
Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, predicted earlier this week that sanctions on the central bank would have drastic consequences for Russia.
“Apart from creating a domestic financial and economic crisis in Russia (massive dollarisation and destruction of the domestic financial sector), it will also make trade with Russia so difficult that it will be nearly impossible for some,” she wrote. “Energy and oil prices massively impacted.”
International financial institutions and other organisations have also started to reduce offices or cut ties with Russia due to the sanctions and reputational risk. That has impacted industries far from the banking sector.
An events planner for a Moscow entertainment firm said simply: “It’s dead.”
“Everything is being cancelled,” the person said, asking not to be named because their firm organised government events. “I’ve basically written off all of my events ordered by international clients. Those that haven’t been cancelled yet will be soon. All I can count on are government contracts.”
Companies that sell popular goods also appear to be limiting their exposure to the Russian market. Automakers including Mercedes Benz, Audi, General Motors and Jaguar Land Rover have reportedly halted shipments of goods to Russia.
Shops selling iPhones and other products have told Russian reporters they were not receiving further shipments, although the reason was not immediately clear.
On Sunday morning, things still appeared calm in Moscow. Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, had taken the unusual step of keeping its branches open over the weekend. But several had no queues, with cashpoints stocked with roubles and ample supplies of dollars for sale at around 100 roubles.
By Sunday evening, Russian state TV hosts were exhorting their listeners to hold the line despite the tough economic times ahead, describing a period of economic isolation and autarky that recalls some of the world’s most troubled pariah states.
“I know some of you are finding this tough,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian TV host who was sanctioned last week. “We’ll overcome it all, we’ll endure it all. We’ll rebuild our own economy from scratch, an independent banking system, manufacturing and industry. We’ll rely on ourselves.”
