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Fortune
Fortune
Technology
Nick Lichtenberg

Morgan Stanley warns an AI breakthrough Is coming in 2026 — and most of the world isn't ready

ELON (Credit: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg via Getty ImageS)

A massive AI breakthrough is coming in the first half of 2026—and Morgan Stanley says most of the world isn’t ready for it.

In a sweeping new report, the investment bank warns that a transformative leap in artificial intelligence is imminent, driven by an unprecedented accumulation of compute at America’s top AI labs. Researchers specifically highlighted a recent interview with Elon Musk, citing his belief that applying 10x the compute to LLM training will effectively double a model’s “intelligence”—and say the scaling laws backing that claim are holding firm.

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