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SpaceX (SPCX) has been a public company for less than a month, and Wall Street is already picking sides. A dozen major banks have started covering SPCX stock, and nearly all of them are bullish. But one price target from Morgan Stanley stands out for both its optimism and grounded nature. So, let’s take a look at Morgan Stanley’s outlook and why it is bullish on SPCX stock.
What Does SpaceX Do?
SpaceX built its name launching rockets, a market it continues to dominate in 2026. The space-tech giant has captured more than 80% of all mass sent to orbit worldwide since 2023.
Most of that lift now comes from reused boosters rather than new ones, which has driven launch costs down sharply over the past two decades. But launch is only one piece of the business now.
- Starlink, the company's satellite internet arm, has grown into the biggest source of cash flow.
- It reached over 10 million active subscribers by the first quarter of 2026, up from just 2.3 million three years earlier.
- The satellites also power a growing mobile connectivity service that reaches nearly two billion people through partnerships with roughly 30 wireless carriers.
- SpaceX also runs some of the largest data cluster infrastructure in the world and leases capacity to major players including Anthropic and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) .
- Its consumer AI product, Grok, had 117 million monthly users as of March 2026. In early 2026, the company also folded in xAI, adding a full-scale AI lab to the platform.
Combined, these three businesses posted $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, up 33% from the year before. However, that's on a $4.9 billion net loss due to heavy capex, R&D, and non-cash stock-based compensation.
Morgan Stanley Has a $300 SPCX Stock Price Target
The company's growth story is what pushed Morgan Stanley to issue its target this week. Analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 price target on SPCX stock. That'd place it as one of the most bullish figures among the roughly two dozen firms that have initiated coverage. However, the highest target on SPCX is the extraordinarily high $800 from Raymond James, which is not reflected yet in Barchart's data. Against Tuesday’s closing price of $150, the $300 target implies gains of around 100%. And the $800 target would be a massive increase of 433%.
Out of the 29 analysts covering SPCX stock, 20 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend a “Moderate Buy,” six recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Moderate Sell.” The average SPCX price target is $202.38, indicating almost 36% upside from current levels.
There is also a technical factor at play that is driving SPCX stock higher in the near term. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 just 15 days after its stock market debut, one of the fastest mega-cap inclusions the exchange has ever handled, thanks to newer rules that let large newly listed companies skip the usual waiting period.
According to a 24/7 Wall St report:
- Because SpaceX's public float is much smaller compared to its market cap, J.P. Morgan estimated the stock effectively enters the index at roughly triple its raw float of $75 billion, giving it an index weight near 1.3%.
- That structure is expected to force an estimated $4.3 billion in mechanical buying by funds that track the index, as they must hold stocks in proportion to their index weightings.
- The headwind is a tranche of insider lockups set to expire in the coming weeks, which could open the door for early shareholders to sell, according to the same reporting.
- Data showed Reddit (RDDT) sentiment toward SpaceX turned sharply negative in early July, even as broader news sentiment remained positive, a split that suggests everyday investors and Wall Street analysts are not entirely reading the stock the same way right now.
Morgan Stanley’s SPCX stock price target suggests that the company will be valued at roughly $4 trillion. That is quite steep given it generated less than $20 billion in total sales last year.
